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FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm & Framework for Progress

. . FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm & Framework for Progress. Seeking Clarity & Coalescence in the Primordial Soup. Lans P. Rothfusz Deputy Chief Warning R & D Division National Severe Storms Laboratory. Informing a Paradigm Shift. Refine, revise and/or reinvent. First, do no harm!.

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FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm & Framework for Progress

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  1.  FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm &Framework for Progress Seeking Clarity & Coalescence in the Primordial Soup Lans P. Rothfusz Deputy Chief Warning R & D Division National Severe Storms Laboratory

  2. Informing a Paradigm Shift Refine, revise and/or reinvent. First, do no harm! Where we’re headed.

  3. The State of Warnings and Warning R&D A Sampling of Current Challenges

  4. Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning? BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2012 *TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI * UNTIL 1 PM CST * AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 601939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. Answer: The Year! Courtesy: Alan Gerard

  5. Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning? BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 1971 *TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI * UNTIL 1 PM CST * AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 601939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 40+ years ago!! Courtesy: Alan Gerard

  6. Current Warning System “Challenges” • Warning methodologies have changed little in over 40 years. • Except for “bullet format” and “storm-based” issuance. • Society has changed…. • Technology • Science • Social diversity • Lifestyles • Vulnerability

  7. Current Warning System “Challenges” • Polygons (in their current formulation) are blunt instruments for communicating a dynamic, small-scale threat. Courtesy Greg Carbin, NWS SPC

  8. Current Warning System “Challenges” Information Void(s) Outlooks Warnings Watches Minutes Days Hours Time Event Regional State Space Local Information Continuum • Product-centric and binary. • More information needed. • More information available. Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM)

  9. Where We’re Headed… Evolutional Trajectories

  10. Evolutional Trajectory #1 • Evolving Methods… • Some under development (e.g., WoF) • Most unsupported and/or untested. • None are coordinated with the others. PHI WoF FDP THESPA TIM Threat Petals

  11. EvolutionalTrajectory #2 • Evolving Domain… • All developmental trajectories point toward The Grid! • Severe ops, however, are not on it. • A key issue for the future of warnings!! MRMS

  12. EvolutionalTrajectory #3 Mid-South Warning Improvement Project • Evolving Output… • Disparate projects intended to make warnings more effective in influencing human behavior. Threats-In-Motion Collaborative Study

  13. EvolutionalTrajectory #4 • A Nurturing Environment… • Testbeds & Proving Grounds. • NWS Roadmap. • Decision Support Services (DSS) through Pilot Projects. • Weather Ready Nation. • Emphasis on social science.

  14. The Primordial Soup Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

  15. The Primordial Soup • “Ingredients” of the primordial soup are advancing, but each on their own trajectory. • Poorly-coordinated = No assurance each will “arrive” in the same place as the others. • Impractical in today’s fiscal climate. • Problematic for those managing “warning R&D.” • All connected by a common desire to improve public safety! Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

  16. The Opportunity • There is a need (and opportunity) to coalesce the disparate activities into a single vision for a threat forecasting* paradigm that is… • Modern • Effective • Scientifically robust • Holistic • Unifying • Responsive to WRN-identified issues *beyond watches & warnings

  17. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats

  18. FACETs Paradigm • Seven Facets of the Paradigm • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Storm-Scale Obs & Guidance • The Forecaster • Threat Grid Tools • Useful Output • Effective Response • Verification Temporal Continuum of the Threat Forecasting Process

  19. Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • ACK!!! • Probabilities for the public?!

  20. Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Grid-Based, Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) • Forecasters convey threat probability on grids. • NOT (explicitly) watches or warnings, but… Tornado threat index Valid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm CDT Last updated: 6 minutes ago Courtesy G. Stumpf

  21. Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats Sub-Warning Alert for High Wind • Legacy products (warnings/watches) result from pre-determined thresholds. • De-emphasizes the binary “warn/don’t warn” decision of forecasters. • Enables new products! “Byproduct” Tornado Warning Tornado threat index Valid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm CDT Last updated: 6 minutes ago Courtesy G. Stumpf

  22. Facet #2: Obs & Guidance • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Observations & Guidance

  23. Facet #2: Obs & Guidance • Warn on Forecast • NWP for storm-scale processes. • Probabilistic output that will enable FACETs.

  24. Facet #2: Obs & Guidance • Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms (MYRORSS). • 15-year radar data reanalysis. • Statistical (probabilistic) output of climatological storm-scale “behavior” (phenomena, longevity, severity, etc.) • Paves way for WoF probabilistic output.

  25. Facet #3: The Forecaster • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Observations & Guidance • The Forecaster

  26. Facet #3: The Forecaster • Forecasters over (and in) the grids!! • As essential as ever to the warning process. • New paradigm = new training! • Probabilistic threat information. • Uncertainty conveyance. • Use of guidance. • Best practices. • Tool use, etc. • For maximum effectiveness of FACETs, NWS must have renewed training efforts.

  27. Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Observations & Guidance • The Forecaster • Threat Grid Tools

  28. Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools • WarnGen for threat grids. • GSD’s “Hazard Services” AWIPS-II app is headed in this direction. • Specific tools needed for storm-scale threats. • For example, a supercell widget to quickly “draw” hail, wind and tornado threat swaths all at once. • Need to strengthen connections to warning R&D.

  29. Facet #5: Useful Output • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Observations & Guidance • The Forecaster • Threat Grid Tools • Useful Output

  30. Facet #5: Useful Output Sub-Warning Alert for High Wind • Watches & warnings, yes. • User-specifiable thresholds! • Impact-focused, with new information • Urgency, confidence, range of possibilities, etc. • Enables copious opportunities for private sector partners. “Byproduct” Tornado Warning Courtesy G. Stumpf

  31. Hail Damage Trees Down >EF3 Tornado Lightning Facet #5: Useful Output GIS layers Wind Grid Hail Grid Tornado Grid Impact Grid

  32. Facet #5: Useful Output Until 6:45 p.m. Until 5:30 p.m. Last Update 6:15 p.m. Last Update 5:00 p.m. High Act Now! Act Now! Med Low Phone App Example

  33. Facet #5: Useful Output • Better DSS through better (and easier) impact communication. • Based on weather threat forecast, a GIS-based, “impact translator tool” could communicate the site-specific impact. • Forecast: “Wind gusts to 60 mph” • Impact: “Numerous trees and branches will fall. Roofing material will be peeled back. Mobile homes will be rolled.” • Gives more useful, actionable, recipient-specific information.

  34. Facet #6: Effective Response • Effective Response • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Observations & Guidance • The Forecaster • Threat Grid Tools • Useful Output

  35. The Impact • Response Facet #6: Effective Response • Start at the end… • “Look at the desired response and work our way backwards from there.” - Dr. Russ Schneider Public Forecaster

  36. The Impact Response SocSci Integration Points Sociology Psychology Sociology Economics Law Anthropology Public Psychology Economics Economics Communication Anthropology Political Science Cultural Studies Public Policy Linguistics Human Geography Cultural Studies Human Factors Communication Anthropology Political Science Human Factors Human Factors Psychology Human Factors Linguistics Human Factors Psychology Psychology Forecaster

  37. Facet #7: Verification • Effective Response • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • Observations & Guidance • The Forecaster • Threat Grid Tools • Useful Output • Verification Methods

  38. Facet #7: Verification • Forecasts and observations on the same coordinate system: A geospatial grid. • Statistically-valid and scientifically-robust results suitable for system improvement & research. • Reliability • Resolution • New metrics possible… • False alarm time & area. • Site-specific lead time, etc. } Brier Score FALSE From ECMWF and Allan Murphy HIT MISS CORRECT NULL Resolution: 1 km2 × 1 min

  39. FACETs • Effective Response • Education • Preparedness • Awareness • Threat & Vulnerability Matching • Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats • PHI • TIM • Observations & Guidance • WoF • MYRORSS • The Forecaster • Training • Drills • Best Practices • DSS • Threat Grid Tools • Hazard Services • NWSWarn • Threat Petals • Useful Output • HazSimp • Impact-based warnings • Mid-South Warning Improvement Project • DSS • Verification Methods • Grid-based, improved metrics. HWT, OPG & Pilot Project “Development & Polishing” Integrated Social Science Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

  40. In Conclusion… • FACETs is… • A new warning paradigm (grid-based threats); • A framework intended to organize and guide reinvention efforts. • FACETs designed to… • Continue “the good” of the present system. • Accommodate trajectories of science, technology and society; • Focus and guide warning R&D work; • Provide clarity in “The Primordial Soup!”  

  41. Comments, Questions and/or Suggestions? Lans P. Rothfusz lans.rothfusz@noaa.gov 678-665-7049

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