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An exercise in forecasting

An exercise in forecasting. Forecasting methods. Basis: start with persistence Yesterday’s weather will occur again today Then ask questions: Will there be any differences between yesterday and today? What will the surface conditions be today? What will the upper-level conditions be today?

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An exercise in forecasting

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  1. An exercise in forecasting

  2. Forecasting methods • Basis: start with persistence • Yesterday’s weather will occur again today • Then ask questions: • Will there be any differences between yesterday and today? • What will the surface conditions be today? • What will the upper-level conditions be today? • Where were today’s air parcels yesterday?

  3. Forecasting tools • Begin with yesterday’s weather • Surface conditions • temp, moisture, wind direction/speeds • Upper-level conditions • 500 hPa troughs / ridges • 300 hPa cloud cover • 850 hPa temperatures • Examine surface maps, satellite images, and the most recent sounding

  4. Yesterday’s weather worksheet • Temperatures in Graz • High: Low: • Average dewpoint: • Extent of cloud cover

  5. Now for today • Temperature • High temp expected • Low temp expected (tonight) • Cloud cover • Portion of sky obscured by cloud • Current weather • Expected precipitation & type

  6. Longer range • Use computer forecast models • UKMet (from England), GFS (from USA), NOGAPS (from USA) • Interpret output from these models, arrive at forecast

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