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P. Criqui , CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN

Energy Transition in France and Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios: experiences and agenda. P. Criqui , CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN. A prelude to decarbonisation scenarios. Looking back: King Coal again !. Looking back: CO2 emissions after Kyoto.

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P. Criqui , CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN

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  1. Energy Transition in France and Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios: experiences and agenda P. Criqui, CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN

  2. A prelude to decarbonisation scenarios P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 2

  3. Looking back: King Coal again ! P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 3

  4. Looking back: CO2 emissionsafter Kyoto P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 4

  5. Lookingforward: exploratory and normative scenarios Source SHELL: Mountains and Oceans scenarios 5

  6. Looking forward: the plausible and the desirable BaU: from 2000 to 2050, population is multiplied by 1.5, GWP by 4 , TPES by 2; the O&G levelling-off induces the comeback of coal • A responsible climate policy requires: a lower total demand (-20% / BaU), a balanced energy supply mix and a massive CCS development 4°C 2°C Source: POLES model, EDDEN P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 6 21 Février 2013 6

  7. Tools: IAMs in the FP7 AMPERE project Source: ElmarKriegler PIK, AMPERE Venice meeting, 23-25 May 2012 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 7

  8. FP7 AMPERE: Diagnostics 240 200 Source: ElmarKriegler PIK, AMPERE Venice meeting, 23-25 May 2012 8

  9. Scenarios viewedfrom SPM T5 of IPCC-AR4 ΔT°C Baseline 0 €/tCO2 Muddling Through EuropeAlone 40 €/tCO2 Global Regime 400 €/tCO2 Em. 2050/2000 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 9

  10. Philosophical background:the“Science and Policy Nexus” • Extending on the Edenhofer and Kowarsch (2013) contribution on “Science and policy advice”, one can identify 4 types of visions: • Positivist-scientist: facts are facts and there is one best solution for any problem; scientists are the best collocated for taking the right decisions (Hans Jonas’ “government by the scientists”; in economics, W. Nordhaus with the Intertemporal Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate policies • Positivist-decisionist: there is one best solution, but in everyday’s life policy-makers are “muddling through” while arbitraging between scientific statements, industries’ short-term interests and social acceptability constraints • Constructivist-relativist: facts are entwined with value judgements and for many social scientists (“science studies”) every discourse is socially constructed; this applies to the scientific discourse that do not have a natural pre-eminence (B. Latour: we can politically decide that there is a human influence on climate) • Pragmatic-enlightedmodel: different solutions exist to any problem, depending on value judgements; but the role of scientists is to identify the problems and the solutions in a given context, while documenting and assessing their consequences (John Dewey’s process of scientific inquiry) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 10

  11. Case 1: the four trajectories in the deliberative framework of the National Debate on Energy Transition (DNTE) • Case 2: transition scenarios and technologies in the National Alliance for Energy Research (ANCRE) exercise • Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 11

  12. The National Debate on Energy Transition in 2013 • This new step in French energy policy, with a new law expected in 2014, has been prepared by a “deliberative process” that took place in the first half of 2013: • A coordination committee • A National Council (7x16 members from NGOs, Trade-Unions, Business, MPs, Mayors...) • A group of 45 experts in charge of producing relevant and validated analytical materials • A citizen and an industry group... P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 12

  13. A great diversity of energy scenarios to 2050 for France • Hypotheses and results have been gathered from 16 pre-existing scenarios to 2050 • A very wide range of energy futures: total electricity consumption varies from 450 TWh today to between 280 and 820 TWh in 2050 • The main goal of the scenario working group and of its experts has been to: • identify a limited number of structural “trajectories” • evaluate them in a mulitcriteria approach P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 13

  14. Four families of scenarios or “trajectories” have finally been identified BaU SOBrietyEFFiciencyDIVersityDECarbonization BaU Transition Lowdemand (-20% en 2050) Verylowdemand (-50% en 2050) Diversifi-cation Diversifi-cation Priority to NuclearEnergy Priority to Renewable En. Four Trajectories: Explored by 15 scenarios: négaWattADEMEANCREdivNégatep Greenpeace GRDF RTEnouvmixRTEmed WWF ANCREsobDGECams-o ANCREele Global Chance ENCILOCARBrenf UFE P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 14

  15. National and international commitments • Two commitments or policy targets are structuring the different trajectories: • the Factor 4 in emissions (-75% in 2050 / 1990) • the reduction in the share of nuclear energy to 50% by 2025, target set by President FH • Only the “Decarbonization by electricity” scenario doesn’t meet the second target of 50% nuclear • All scenarios meet the “Factor 4 in emissions” target, but some choose a teleological approach while others adopt a “realistic” approach to changes in the system 544 MtCO2 in 1973 (-30%) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 15

  16. Whatlevel of reduction in energydemand ? • A strong divergence emerged in the Debate, some favouring a strong reduction in energy demand (-50% to be included in the future law), while other advocated a more moderate reduction, compensated by more low carbon supply P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 16

  17. Structure of the power generation mix P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 17

  18. A framework for the assessment of transition trajectories • The role of the experts was in no way to express their preference and even less to choose one of the four trajectories • Even the multi-criteria analysis couldn’t end in a notation of the different categories of impacts the scenario along the 12 criteria, e.g. from (--) to (0) and (++) • The main reason is the lack of quantified indicators for highly complex issues, such as vulnerability to crises or accidents, robustness of the electricity system or environmental and health impacts • Only some criteria, mostly connected to economic sectoral impacts, were quantified and compared P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 18

  19. Quantification of the transition investment: 1. retrofitting • The energy retrofitting of existing buildings is a key battlefield in the energy transition • Scenarios may differ in the share of the total stock that is retrofitted so as in the depth (performance) of each operation • Many obstacles – financing, transaction costs – will have to be overcome -44% -69% Source RENOVsim P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 19

  20. Quantification of the transition investment: 2. power sector • Investment dynamics are key elements in the assessment of the different scenarios; in the case of France the phasing in of Variable Renewable Energies and of New Nuclear has major impact • A dedicated tool – ELECsim -- has been deigned for describing these trajectories Source ELECsim P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 20

  21. Macro-economic impacts: the problem of employment • Assessing the impact of Transition Trajectories on employment is a key issue; this should lead to quantify direct and indirect employment, created and destructed... • The question of the induced employment after the taking into account of all macroeconomic, competitiveness and external trade effects is the most tricky one; this all the more that the impact may clearly overcome the direct and indirect effect • Detailed macroeconomic models may provide useful insights on the main mechanisms, however their aggregate results still lack of robustness • The key issue is: what is the level of energy efficiency investment that will best serve households’ budget and industries’ competitiveness ??? Source: CIRED évaluation négaWatt P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 21

  22. Impacts on the environment, land use, resources… • In spite of many academic or applied research in the field of energy-related environmental externalities (e.g. EU ExternE projects), the capability to address the environmental impacts of energy scenarios remains limited • This should be a major issue for France. In the French transition process, only a very limited set of impacts have been quantified P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 22

  23. Lessons from the scenario comparison exercise • Each submitted scenario reflects a “worldview”, loaded with value judgements, but the common reporting templates allowed to identify the four trajectories and provided a consistent basis for the comparison • Although incomplete, the multi-criteria assessment approach enabled discussion among the different stakeholder categories on clearly identified hypotheses and outcomes • By lack of sufficient analytical background – but also due to the nature of the problem – the debate on the realism, feasibility, desirability of the trajectories remained open... P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 23

  24. Case 1: the four trajectories in the deliberative framework of the National Debate on Energy Transition (DNTE) • Case 2: transition scenarios and technologies in the National Alliance for Energy Research (ANCRE) exercise • Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 24

  25. ANCRE: National Alliance for EnergyResearch • Created in 2009, the National Alliance for Energy Research allows researchers from CNRS, CEA, IFPEN, Universities and other research organisms to exchange information and participate in common activities on new energy technologies and solutions • Its first goal was to increase the coordination of activities... and turn pre-existing competition into cooperation • In 2012-2013 it developed a new activity on foresight and scenarios with the aim of providing feasible and cost-effective scenarios, based on the contributions of high-level expert Working Groups P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 25

  26. ANCRE: The Working Groups • ANCRE has 10 working groups organized by type of energy source or consumption sector: • WG1 – Biomass energy • WG2 – Fossil sources and geothermal energy • WG3 – Nuclear technologies • WG4 – Solar technologies, PV and CSP • WG5 – Wind and marine energies • WG6 – Transport • WG7 – Building • WG8 – Industry and agriculture • WG9 – Socio-economics and scenarios • WG10 – Networks and storage SUPPLY DEMAND SYSTEMS P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 26

  27. ANCRE: The 2012-2013 scenarios • By fall 2012, prior to the DNTE process, ANCRE WG9 had defined three scenarios : SOBriety,ELEctrification,DIVersity • The DIV scenario has been chosen as representative for the Diversity trajectory in the National Debate • Structuring targets are Factor 4 in emissions in 2050and 50% nuclear production in 2025 • A fourth scenario then relaxed the 50% constraint WG9 on scenarios: Nathalie Alazard-Toux*, Patrick Criqui, Jean-Guy DevezeauxǂAlain Le Duigouǂ, Elisabeth Le Netǂ, Alban Liegeard*, Daphné Lorne*, Sandrine Mathy, Philippe Menanteau, Henri Safaǂ, Olivier Teissier, Benjamin Topperǂ * IFPEN,  CNRS, ǂ CEA,  CSTB P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 27

  28. A methodology for acrosssectorstechnico-economicassessment • The balance between changes in behaviours and in technologies has been set on a sector by sector basis while trying to avoid extreme changes in behavioural patterns • After identification of key activity/energy intensity parameters and of the possibilities of the supply-transformation system, simulations showed that theFactor 4 is an attainable but extremely ambitious target • Going beyond the Factor 4 for energy, in order to compensate for lesser reduction in other GHGs (agriculture) would involve “game changers” i.e. breakthrough technologies P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 28

  29. Transport: challenges in the different scenarios Transport Hypothèses technologiques Energyintensity in passenger transport Développements technologiques transport Ruptures d’efficacité énergétique VP 2L/100km : 2025 véhicules disponibles 2040 généralisation Poids Lourds / Bus : 2030 -30% consommation (malgré norme de dépollution) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 29

  30. Buildings: challenges in the different scenarios Actualenergy performance • Innovations technologiques • Matériaux (super isolants minces, vitrages performants, VMC, …) • Systèmes de chauffage performants (PAC réversibles, mini cogen, stockages thermiques, chauffe-eau thermodynamiques) • Monitoring / suivi / optimisation des consommations • Approches systémiques intégrées, réseaux intelligents (elec – chaleur) Besoin de formation et qualification des acteurs P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 30

  31. Industry: efficiency gains in energy intensive industries and other industries IndustrieHypothèses d’efficacité énergétique Energy intensive industries (from SOB case) Other industries L’amélioration potentielle de l’efficacité énergétique est de 10 à 40 % selon les secteurs (enquête CEREN auprès des industriels) L’amélioration est plus rapide pour les IGCE qui ont un intérêt économique immédiat SOB :95% du « gisement » atteint en 2050 ELE et DIV: 90% des gains atteints pour le scénario SOB en 2050 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 31

  32. Electricity production: meeting the 50% target In spite of the diversification of the electricity system, nuclearremains a major source • La gestion de l’intermittence est assurée par: • des solutions d’effacement (SOB) • du stockage électrique (ELE) • de la cogénération (DIV) 2050 2030 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 32

  33. Evaluation multicritères Tableau synthétique An extended multi-criteriaassessmentframework 4 SCENARIOS + BaU 2010-2030 2030-2050 ECONOMY-EMPLOYMENT RISK-ENVIRONMENT RESILIENCE-ROBUSTNESS R&D TECHNOLOGY POLICY P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 33

  34. Case 1: the four trajectories in the deliberative framework of the National Debate on Energy Transition (DNTE) • Case 2: transition scenarios and technologies in the National Alliance for Energy Research (ANCRE) exercise • Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 34

  35. The DDPP - DeepDecarbonisationPathway Project UN-SDSN (Jeff. Sachs) • 31 leading research institutions from 12 countries (Australia, Brazil, China, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the United States of America), covering more than 70% of global C02 emissions. The project aims to: • Prepare transparent national deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 to help countries adopt and implement policies to achieve deep decarbonization. • Support a positive outcome of the UNFCCC international climate negotiations by 2015 by helping national decision makers and the international community to understand what deep decarbonization implies for individual countries and regions. • Review aggregate global emission reduction pathways prepared for AR5 by the WG III in light of the national decarbonization pathways. • Build an on-going global network to facilitate learning and promote problem solving in the implementation phase of national of deep decarbonization strategies after 2015 P. Criqui – LEPII-EDDEN – Economie de l’Energie et de l’Environnement – 2010-2011 35

  36. 1. The wedges(Jim Williams, Science 2012 and DDPP) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 36

  37. 2. Robustness(Jim Williams, Science 2012 and DDPP) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 37

  38. Option, Sectorou Country 1 OSC 2 OSC 3 TOTAL 3. Staticeconomiceffciency:equalising the Marginal AbatementCosts Cost €/tCO2 Quantity(tCO2) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 38

  39. 4. Dynamicefficiency: accounting for learningeffects Wind - ON Wind - OFF Solar - PV Solar - CP P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 39

  40. 5. An integratedenergy, macroeconomic and industrialstrategy (PantelisCapros, AMPERE 2014) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 40

  41. 6. Assessing the environmental impacts: the EU ExternE-NEEDS approach ? 3. 1. 2. 4. P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 41

  42. DeepDecarbonisation: a research agenda • Identify the wedges for cost-effective decarbonisation of energy systems (with consideration of the robustness of the system): • Energy sobriety/efficiency • Decarbonisation of electric and non-electric energy carriers • Development of low carbon carriers (electricity) for transport uses • Identify the pillars of a consistent macro-economic strategy: • A macro-economic framework: investment substituting to recurrent fossil consumption generates new activities and employment, under the constraint of economic competitiveness • An industrial strategy combining: innovation, demand-pull, market consolidation (EU scale) and “first-mover advantage” • Develop the methodologies for the assessment of the environmental impacts of the different scenarios (accidents and health hazards, air quality, land, water, biodiversity...) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 42

  43. Annex on DDPP dashboard and technologydynamics P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 43

  44. A dashboard for national studies • The minimum requirements are to have a compact energy balance (IEA-type)… • plus a mini-dashboard on energy demand drivers… • plus a dedicated dashboard on low-carb technology deployment (wedges) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 44

  45. TECHPOL: Nuclear, Coal and Gas P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 45

  46. TECHPOL: Wind, Solar and Biomass P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 46

  47. LCoEcomparisonswith TECHPOL NUC COAL +CCS GAS +CCS WON WOFF SPV MAR BIOM +COGEN P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 47

  48. BeyondLCoE: system costs • The development of electricity systems based on Variable Renewable Electricity imposes the taking into account of new cost categories, beyond the LCOE • The system costs with VRE include(B3S): • Adequacy costs for changes in the production capacities, Backup & Storage • Balancing costs for load following (ramping, Demand Response and Smartgrids) • Network costs for VRE connection, two-way transport, interconnections and Supergrids P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 2014 48

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