International Migration : a challenge for demographers

1. International Migration :a challenge fordemographers Michel POULAIN GéDAP – UCL BELGIUM

2. The paradox • Demographers consider that international migration is a topic of increasing importance that is linked with their discipline. • However policy makers dealing with international migration take so limited interest to the work of demographers.

3. Three aspects will be presented mostly as far as data collection is concerned • The definition of concepts, the reliability of statistics and the harmonisation process • What the data reveal based on the most recent available statistics for EU 27 • Beyond statistics on citizenship or country of birth

4. Migration, a demographic phenomenon really uneasy to catch and to measure Ideally speaking the migration is defined as the change of place of residence In case of international migration the place and origin and the place of destination are in two different countries and one or several borders will be crossed.

5. Potential data sources censuses which introduce specific questions on spatial mobility and particularly on international mobility; administrative population registers which record the entries and exits in relation to the national territory; entry or exit visas and the data collection at border using ad hoc forms or by surveys; records of residence permits and management of aliens’ registers; surveys devoted totally or partly to international mobility or immigrants

6. Internationalmigration flowsare measured by two different statistical bodies using rules that may differ according national practices. Ideally the emigration figure from country A to country B should be similar to the immigration figure in country B from country A.

7. Migration flows between Italy and Germany : comparing figures from both countries ITALY 7964 10805 39404 48510 GERMANY

8. Migration flow from Belgium to Italy as immigrations in Italy and emigrations in Belgium for the years 1992 - 1994 (INS ISTAT)

9. Direct comparison between immigration and emigration figures for 1995 (Source : EUROSTAT)

10. Migration from Denmark to Germany: comparison of emigration figures recorded by Denmark and immigration ones from Germany

11. Net migration between Germany and Denmark (in favour of Germany) according the statistics of both countries (Source: EUROSTAT)

12. Migration from UK to the Netherlands: comparison of emigration figures recorded by UK and immigration figures from the Netherlands

13. Net migration between UK and the Netherlands (in favour of UK) according the statistics of both countries (Source: EUROSTAT)

14. Net migration between Denmark and Norway (in favour of Norway) according the statistics of both countries

15. The role of UN Statistical Division • Since 1930 the UN has the leadership in the harmonisation process in the field of international migration • The last revision of the UN recommendations in that field was released in 1998 • The recent UN Expert Group Meeting (December 2006) concluded that the implementation of these recommendations is far to be successful.

16. The role of Eurostatwithin the European Union Member States • Since the Tampere Council meeting in 1999, the need for better statistics to support the development of European policy on migration has been clearly emphasised. • DG Justice, Freedom and Security and Eurostat have developed a proposal for an EU Regulation on data collection in the field of migration and international protection.

17. The forthcoming EU Regulation • This proposal for a regulation was adopted in September 2005 by the European Commission and is now under discussion in the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament. • Once agreed, under the co-decision procedure, the EU Regulation will require all EU Member States to produce a full set of statistics in the field. It will explicitly request reliable figures and metadata which explain the level of data comparability at EU level.

18. The Role of EU DG Research to support EU policies • For the years 2004-2006, DG-Research of the European Commission launched the 6th Framework Programme of Research. The overall objective of policy-orientated research projects was to support the formulation and implementation of Community policies, by providing scientific contributions to policies. • Among the priorities of the 6th Framework for research projects the following was established :(Task 5) Better sources for statistics for a better knowledge on migration flows to the EU

19. Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International MigrationT H E S I M • The THESIM Project was selected in April 2004 to fulfil this task and federated efforts from demographers from different European Research Centres • The main objective of THESIM was a feasibility study on the implementation of the forthcoming Regulation by the mean of scientific support. • The THESIM team held meetings with authorities responsible on migration in all 25 EU MS and produced reports on the feasibility of the implementation of the Regulation.

20. T H E S I M • The THESIM project found that data currently available in the field of international migration and asylum are not reliable enough for policy-making.   • However, THESIM suggests that solutions can be found for each Member State to improve the quality and accuracy of the data collected in view of the forthcoming Regulation.

21. Improving international migration data collection means : Improvement in the availability of data >>>by investigating new potential data sources >>>using data from different data sources A better quality >>> complete coverage of all migrants >>> and more reliability in data collection. More comparability between countries >>> use of the same definition >>>Or being able to transform the available data according international definitions

22. Why are international migration figures so unreliable and remain so after a decade of efforts? • Strong fluctuation in figures as migration flows fluctuate a lot. • Data is usually a by-product of administrative data collection systems. • Countries do not generally have the same interest in collecting data on immigration and emigration. • The frequent statistical confusion between migration and migrant and between migrationflows and migrant stocks does not help • The closure of frontiers and the subsequent rise of illegal migration, asylum seekers and clandestine migrants has made the calculation of migration flows more difficult • The increase in intra-European mobility and the decrease of “classical” migrations has the same consequence

23. And then ? Why the system does not work properly ? • If European policymakers have an urgent need of reliable and comparable migration statistics, • European statisticians and demographers have an urgent need of political decision to fulfil their duties.

24. International Migration in EU 27What the most recent data reveal ? • Stock of foreigners in each EU 27 Member State on 1st January 2005 • Foreigner are characterised by their country of citizenship • In each country the population may be split in three groups : Nationals, Other EU citizens and Non EU citizens. • All data are extracted from EUROSTAT Database

25. EU 27 on 1st January 2005… • 489.0 MILLIONS INHABITANTS • 26.5 NON NATIONALS (5.4%) • AMONG WHICH 18.1 NON EU27 CITIZENS (68.5%)

26. Non-National population in 2005

27. Non-National populations in absolute numbers

28. Proportion of the Non-National Populations compared to the Total Populations for 2005

29. EU citizens versus Non-EU citizens among the Non-National Population

30. Ratio between Nationals living in another EU country and other EU citizens living in the country

31. Citizens of…Living in…

32. The citizenship and beyond… • The Foreign population in a given country is mainly identified as those not holding the citizenship of that country. This population is thereafter characterised by the country of citizenship. • Another way to identify the foreign population is to consider the foreign-born population.

33. Foreign citizens in Belgium

34. 870.862 persons with foreign citizenship in Belgium in 2005 Born in Belgium, Foreign citizenship 698 173 Born abroad, Foreign citizenship IN THOUSANDS

35. 1.064.906 persons foreign-born living in Belgium in 2005 367 698 Born abroad, Foreign citizenship Born abroad, Belgian citizenship IN THOUSANDS

36. 1.238.001 persons either foreign-born or foreign citizens in Belgium in 2005 Born in Belgium, Foreign citizenship 698 367 173 Born abroad, Foreign citizenship Born abroad, Belgian citizenship IN THOUSANDS

37. 1.570.475 persons with foreign citizenship at birth in 2005 Born in Belgium, Belgian citizenship Foreign citizen at birth Born in Belgium, Foreign citizenship 332 698 367 173 Born abroad, Foreign citizenship Born abroad, Belgian citizenship IN THOUSANDS

38. 2.166.326 persons with the broader definition of foreign background Born in Belgium, Belgian citizenship Belgian citizen at birth 596 Born in Belgium, Foreign citizenship 332 Born in Belgium, Belgian citizenship Foreign citizen at birth 698 367 173 Born abroad, Foreign citizenship Born abroad, Belgian citizenship IN THOUSANDS

39. Italians in Belgium

40. Frenchs in Belgium

41. Moroccans in Belgium

42. Foreigners in Belgium

43. As a conclusion… Challenges for demographers are still enormous in the field of international migration data collection… So let’s go on working in order to bring the better scientific support to the policy development. THANKS