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Cattle Industry “Situation and Outlook ” TSCRA March, 2012

Cattle Industry “Situation and Outlook ” TSCRA March, 2012. 2012 -967,000 Hd. (3%) 2013F Flat. Slaughter Reductions 2013 vs. 2011. 1.4 Million Non-Fed .8 Million Fed 2.2 million Total 8,500/day 2- 4,000+/day packing plants 1-4,000+/day and 4-1,000+/day packing plants. A Long-Term Chart….

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Cattle Industry “Situation and Outlook ” TSCRA March, 2012

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  1. Cattle Industry“Situation and Outlook ”TSCRAMarch, 2012

  2. 2012 -967,000 Hd. (3%) 2013F Flat

  3. Slaughter Reductions2013 vs. 2011 • 1.4 Million Non-Fed • .8 Million Fed • 2.2 million Total • 8,500/day • 2- 4,000+/day packing plants • 1-4,000+/day and 4-1,000+/day packing plants

  4. A Long-Term Chart… Source: U.S. Dept of Census, various published research estimates

  5. U.S. Dollar Index The weak dollar has stimulated exports

  6. Source: USDA/FAS, CF Forecasts

  7. The U.S. exports 18 percent of total red meat and poultry production.

  8. 15 billion pounds of U.S. beef, pork and poultry were exported in 2011. 2.8 bilbeef, 5.2 bil pork, 7 bil poultry

  9. Demand Retail- Higher prices will limit movement and featuring. Competition between proteins. Food Service- Improvements noted in SSS. Fast food ,casual dinning, high end. Exports-Slowing YOY gains, Low Dollar, Challenges with access. Imports-Increasing, High domestic prices vs. tighter Global supplies.

  10. 2012 Retail Protein Prices Source: USDA and BLS

  11. LFTB

  12. Price Changes Beef

  13. Down $6.50/Hd. this week LFTB

  14. 2012 Fed Price projections based on Changes in Supply and Demand

  15. Record high prices for all class’s of cattle

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