Energy in Context: Global and Local Energy Issues

1. Energy in Context: Global and Local Energy Issues Al Sweedler Center for Energy Studies and Environmental Sciences San Diego State University UCSD June 7 2007

2. Outline • Energy in global and national context. • California energy system. • Greater San Diego region. • Renewable energy in the San Diego Region • Conclusions.

3. History of world supply of primary energy: continuous growth Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass Energy supply grew 20-fold between 1850 and 2000. Fossil fuels supplied 80% of the world’s energy in 2000. From Holdren (2007)

4. …and that growth will continue 72% increase from 2003

5. Carbon-based fuels have supplied most of the primary energy 86% from C-based fuels 80.3% from C-based fuels Source: IEA

6. …and will continue to do so 81.2%carbon- based in 2030 80.4% carbon- based in 2010 Source: IEA

7. Electricity: versatile and rapidly growing. About 1/3 of primary energy supply is used to generate electricity Shares of nuclear, natural gas, & coal growing, those of oil & hydro shrinking. USA gets 50% of its electricity from coal, China gets 80% from coal. (Holdren)

8. Main Issues Associated with Continued Growth of Current Energy System • Environmental: • air pollution • climate change • water • Security • Economic development

9. Environmental Issues Associated with Continued Energy Growth: Global Air Pollution Concentration of NO2 18 Months of Observations Source: European Space Agency

10. Particulate pollution in selected cities OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992; EPA, AIRS database.

11. Global Warming: The Earth is getting warmer. °C Green bars show 95% confidence intervals 2005 was the hottest year on record; the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980. J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)

12. Energy Security – Oil Global Oil Flows

13. Energy security – natural gas Global LNG flows

14. California and Baja California becoming major importer of LNG

15. Imbalance of producers and consumers

16. Problem with Business as Usual • The problem is not that we won’t have enough energy to meet projected demand. • The problem is the irreparable harm to the global environment that is very likely to result from current energy use patterns. • And the security implications of increasing reliance on global energy flows.

17. U.S. Annual Energy Use Including Losses

19. Side Note:Oil Reality for the U.S. • U.S. consumes 26% of world’s oil. • U.S. imports 66% of its oil. By 2020, we will be importing close to 75% • U.S. spent $384 billion last year on imported oil. • 65% of global reserves are in middle east. • By 2030, china will import as much oil as U.S. • U.S. spends approximately $50 billion per year to maintain military presence in middle east (does NOT include Iraq war).

20. Petroleum (2005)In-Sate 37.22%   Alaska 20.99%   Foreign 41.79%  Electricity (2006)In-State 78.03%   Natural Gas 41.5%  Nuclear 12.9%   Large Hydro 19.0% Coal* 15.7%    Renewable 10.9%    Imports 21.97%  Natural Gas (2005) In State 15.0%   Canada 23.0%   Rockies 24.0%   Southwest 38.0%* Intermountain and Mohave coal plants, though outside California, are considered "in-state", since they are in California utilities' control areas.

21. California-Baja California Bi-national Region

22. California-Baja California Border Population, 1980–2020 Source: The U.S.-Mexican Border Environment: A Road Map to a Sustainable 2020. San Diego State University Press. Paul Ganster, editor, 2000

23. - Existing Major Generation Plants Existing 230 kV Substation Existing 69 kV Substation Existing 138 kV Substation Future Generation Plant Existing Generation Plant Transmission Line Upgrade New Transmission Line or Line Section Existing 500 kV Transmission Line Existing 230 kV Transmission Line Existing 138 kV Transmission Line Existing 69 kV Transmission Line County Boundaries TRABUCO MARGARITA Electricity Infrastructure in San Diego CAPISTRANO LAGUNA NIGUEL CRISTIANITOS ORANGECO. TALEGA RIVERSIDE CO. SAN DIEGO CO. PALA BORREGO SAN ONOFRE MONSERATE ENVIREPEL RINCON WARNERS NARROWS SAN LUIS REY LILAC VALLEY CENTER ENCINA ASH ESCONDIDO SWEETWATER 69kV SANTA YSABEL ESCO PALOMAR ENERGY MONTGOMERY 69kV POWAY BOULDER CREEK POMERADO IMPERIAL CO. CREELMAN PENASQUITOS SOUTH BAY 69kV SYCAMORE CANYON DESCANSO LOS COCHES ALPINE LOVELAND GLENCLIFF MISSION CRESTWOOD OLD TOWN BOULEVARD MIGUEL BARRETT IMPERIAL VALLEY TO MAIN STREET OTAY LAKE TAP CAMERON OTAY SOUTH BAY OTAY MESA Note: Map not to scale TO TIJUANA MEXICO

27. U.S.-Mexico • For U.S.-Mexico Bi-national region; • Cross-border energy trading a reality and growing. • Currently the energy sector unites business interests on both sides of the border. • But, is divisive for many environmental groups, NGO’s and some public agencies. • As interdependence in energy trade increases, concerns of security of supply and reliability will grow. • If managed properly, energy trade can be a benefit to both sides of border. • But, unless proper structures and policies are put in place, energy will become a area of friction and tension.

29. Regional Energy Strategy for the San Diego Region • A Regional Energy Infrastructure study was carried out in 2001. • A County-wide Council was formed: The Regional Energy Advisory Council. (2002-2003) • The Council drafted the Regional Energy Strategy. (2003). • An Energy Working Group was formed reporting to SANDAG. Purpose was (is) to implement the Regional Energy Strategy. (2004- current)

30. Some Goals of the Regional Energy Strategy • Provide 40% of San Diego’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030. • Distributed generation to account for 30% of electricity supply by 2030. • Increase transmission capacity to maintain reliability and gain access to renewable energy sources

31. Available at: www.renewablesg.org

34. Estimated Contribution of PV for Rooftops in SD County

36. January and April Wind Resource Source: SDSU Center for Energy Studies

37. July and October Wind Resource Source: SDSU Center for Energy Studies

38. Annual Average Wind Resource for Border Region Source: SDSU Center for Energy Studies

39. Very Large Central Solar Power Potential for Southwest Source: NREL

40. Summary for Renewable Energy Potential in Region • There is a very large technical potential for renewable energy development in the greater SD region. • This resource consists of central solar power and geothermal power in the Imperial Valley, roof-top PV on commercial and residential buildings in SD County, and wind in SD, Imperial and Baja California. • Whether or not this potential is ever developed depends on cost, but also on federal, state and local energy policies.

41. Air Pollution in the Region Air Monitoring Stations in the San Diego-Tijuana Region

42. Figure3 Source: SDSU Center for Energy Studies

43. Ozone levels in Tijuana Downtown Playas Source: SDSU Center for Energy Studies

44. Conclusions • Global: • Carbon-based fuels will continue to provide major portion of global primary energy needs for next 30 – 50 years. • CO2 levels will continue to increase. • Non-carbon energy sources will take at least 50 years to significantly replace carbon fuels. Some of these energy sources are likely to be: nuclear, solar, wind, biofuels.

45. Conclusions • Regional: • California and SD will still continue to rely heavily on carbon fuels for the next 30 – 50 years. • This will consist of imported natural gas for power production and oil for transportation. • However, there are very large resources of renewable energy in the region that could potentially replace oil and gas, but • They will not be developed unless cost is reduced and much moreaggressive policies are devised to both reduce the use of carbon fuels and to facilitate non-carbon energy use.

46. Role of Universities in the Energy-Climate Arena • Education • Develop courses and degree programs in energy-related fields. • In addition to science and engineering aspects of energy, these courses need to include economics, policy and regulatory affairs. • Research • Pursue basic and applied research in new and traditional energy technologies. • Important – emphasize systems and comprehensive approach to analysis of energy issues. • Public outreach • Universities must educate and inform the public and policy-makers about energy issues and related environmental impacts.