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Disaster Risks and Capacities in Central Asia. Michael Thurman Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS "Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011. Contents. Risk = hazard exposure x vulnerability
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Disaster Risks and Capacities in Central Asia Michael Thurman Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS "Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011
Contents • Risk = hazard exposure x vulnerability • Capacity Averages (from CACDRR Capacity Assessment) • Capacity Gaps and capacity Development Priorities (from Group Work for HFA 1, 3, and 4)
Geophysical Hazards • All major cities are highly exposed and contain a high concentration of population and economic activity. • Secondary effects include landslides, mudflows, and GLOFs. Not enough is known concerning the triggering effect. • Landslides triggered by geological, seismic, and meteorological processes • Landslides will become more frequent and intensify with climate change. • Transboundary hazards in Ferghana Valley and northern Tien Shan.
Meteorological Hazards • 1991-2007: hydrological variability increased. • Downstream exposure to floods and hydrological drought often due to poor management at all levels. • Ferghana Valley and upper Amu Darya basin highly exposed to transboundary mudflow and GLOF hazards. • GLOFs are a growing concern, due to glacier melt. • Climate change will amplify exposure to all meteorological hazards.
Compound Hazards • Hydrological drought and extreme cold: • “Compound crisis” of 2007-08: natural and man-made factors contributed to exposure • Climate change expected to result in warmer winters, but hydrological drought more severe • Technogenic hazards: Mayli Suu and other toxic waste particularly a concern in the Ferghana Valley
Economic Vulnerability • Lack of adequate data, due to collection and analysis procedures for global and national datasets. • Potential for losses as % of GDP highest for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. • Absolute amount of potential losses for other countries are higher. • Vulnerable to meteorological hazards: weather-dependent sectors account for 40-60% of GDP.
Structural Vulnerability • Intense earthquake in a major city in Central Asia would collapse or severely damage around half of the residential building stock. • Water infrastructure deteriorated and vulnerable to flood hazards • Outdated building codes and lax enforcement attenuate structural vulnerability
Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities • Poverty, income disparities, and social status significantly lower resilience. • Poor municipal and land use planning place populations, infrastructure, and livelihoods in the way of hazards. • Unsustainable operations and maintenance of infrastructure, especially for water, increases both exposure and vulnerability. • Agriculture requires development to lower vulnerability to drought and floods. • Environmental degradation contributes to exposure and vulnerability.
CACDRRR Capacity Assessment Averages • Capacity indicators per priority areas of the Hyogo Framework for Action • Assessment of the existing capacity level 1 …… 5 • Desired capacity level/priority (low, medium, high)
Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 1 Ensuring Commitment, Enabling Environment and Institutional Development
Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 3 Public Awareness and Education
Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 4 Disaster Prevention and Mitigation