1 / 12

NYS Petroleum Fuel Supply Dynamics Winter 2013 - 14

NYS Petroleum Fuel Supply Dynamics Winter 2013 - 14. May 15, 2014 DPS Technical Conference Charles Wesley NYSERDA. Overview. NYSERDA monitors winter fuel supply dynamics on a continuous basis throughout the heating season Distillate Fuels

magnar
Download Presentation

NYS Petroleum Fuel Supply Dynamics Winter 2013 - 14

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. NYS Petroleum Fuel Supply DynamicsWinter 2013 - 14 May 15, 2014 DPS Technical Conference Charles Wesley NYSERDA

  2. Overview NYSERDA monitors winter fuel supply dynamics on a continuous basis throughout the heating season Distillate Fuels Ultra Low Sulfur (ULS) Diesel & Heating Oil (only NYS) ULS Kerosene #6 Residual Fuel Oil sulfur content aggregated in US EIA data sets NYC = 0.3%; Nassau, Rockland, Westchester = 0.37%; Suffolk County: Towns of Babylon, Brookhaven, Huntington, Islip, & Smithtown = 1.0%

  3. New York State Distillate Demand 1973 = 123.8 mmbbl 2012 = 61.0 mmbbl Residential demand decline from peak = -64.8% 1973 = 62.3 mmbbls, 2012 = 21.9 mmbbls

  4. New York Residual Demand 1973 = Total 169.1 mmbbl 1978 = Electric 87.2 mmbbl 2012 = Total 14.5 mmbbl 2012 = Electric 0.5 mmbbl Lack of demand conditions the supply industry to not prepare for any additional need

  5. Petroleum Fuels Used byElectric Sector 1973 = 92.7 mmbbl 2005 = 36.6 mmbbl 2012 = 0.9 mmbbl 2012 = 0.9 mmbbl Lack of demand conditions the supply industry to not prepare for any additional need

  6. East Coast Refinery Capacity 2000 = 1.7 mmb/d 2014 = 1.3 mmb/d 25% fuel production capacity decline As East Coast capacity declines it is replaced by more distant Gulf Coast fuels delivered by pipeline, 3 weeks away

  7. East Coast Distillate Supply Sources 2003 = 534.1 mmbbl 2012 = 379.2 mmbbl Northeast supply is growing more dependent on distant Gulf Coast area production

  8. Historic Distillate Inventories Nov 2013 = 17.9 mmbbl Nov 2009 = 47.0 mmbbl Red & Blue fuels are for diesel transportation. 2013 – 14 was first year Blue was used for heat in NYS, and stocks were limited

  9. 2013-14Season Distillate Inventories Price induced drop 15 mmbbls less (-43% vs 5-year) Cold induced high demand 2013 – 14 total Mid-Atlantic stocks sharply lower than 5-year average ULSD stocks declined from August – November as futures prices were higher than fuel in storage ULSD – When January cold spells hit stocks were low and then dropped rapidly to February When NYS gas interruptions occurred ULSD supplies were very limited Retail heating oil (ULSD) prices moved upward

  10. East Coast Residual Production May 2003 = 212,000 b/d Jan 2014 = 57,000 b/d 73% Production decline Sulfur content unknown. Can it be used by NYC generators? NYC sulfur content = 0.3%

  11. 2013-14 Season Residual Inventories Jan 2007 = 16 mmbbls Jan 2014 = 6.2 mmbbls, -61% Dec 2013 -29% last year & 39% 5-year avg. 2013 – 14 total Mid-Atlantic stocks sharply lower than 5-year average Supply industry no longer hold significant volumes, demand is not there Residual Fuel stocks have been near the 7.0 million barrel level since 2011 Data shows all sulfur content levels combined. Unknown if low sulfur fuels 0.3% is available

  12. Questions? Charles M. Wesley NYSERDA (518) 862-1090 ext 3364 cmw@nyserda.ny.gov

More Related