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Quarter Ending June 30, 2011. Compliments of: Frank Dakos Investment Planning Counsel 1100-100 Conestoga College Blvd. Kitchener, ON N2P 2N6 Phone: 519-578-2591 Email: fdakos@ipckitchener.com Website: www.moneytipswithfrank.com. Date:. Prepared for :.
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Quarter Ending June 30, 2011 Compliments of: Frank Dakos Investment Planning Counsel1100-100 Conestoga College Blvd. Kitchener, ON N2P 2N6 Phone: 519-578-2591 Email: fdakos@ipckitchener.com Website: www.moneytipswithfrank.com Date: Prepared for: The Report Card provides a comprehensive review of past, current and potential factors that may impact your investments. Our goal is to continuously monitor your investments to help you meet your financial objectives.
About This Report While this is a quarterly communiqué, the comments in this Report Card refer to the last three and 12 months. Market discussions are related to the indices and do not analyze or reflect your personal investments. Counsel Portfolio Services examines the performance and risk management of each mandate within your Counsel investment solution. We review the performance, risk management and overall effectiveness of each sub-advisor and underlying fund manager. Counsel investment solutions adopt a long-term approach to investing. Each portfolio solution is properly diversified to reflect an appropriate: Asset mix Geographic allocation Investment style mix A market-cycle typically refers to a period of between six and eight years. Please refer to the chart at the end of this presentation for further information on Counsel portfolio solutions. The benchmarks used for each Counsel investment solution can be found at the end of this presentation.
Agenda Market & Economic Overview What The Investment Specialists Say Review Of Counsel Investment Solutions Appendix: Counsel’s View Of The Investment Specialists
Market Forces At Play Over Q2 • European Sovereign Debt • Greek’s potential default • Italy’s austerity measures • U.S. debt ceiling • Will it be increased in time? • Disappointing U.S. manufacturing and unemployment data • China slowing down economic growth by raising interest rates • Increased oil supply – International Energy Agency (IEA) released excess reserves • Libya and the Middle East • On-going political and social uncertainty • Japan • Post tsunami/earthquake rebuilding
Global Stock Markets: Index Movements Q2: • Apart from Canada, developed markets performed well. • Canada was negatively impacted due to its higher weighting in the Energy sector. • Despite the euro area’s sovereign debt issues, Germany and France recorded the best performance among developed markets. • Portugal, Ireland and Spain did not perform as badly as expected given their sovereign debt circumstances. • Despite strong growth, emerging market performance was weak. Performance is calculated using local currency. Data as at: June 30, 2011 Source: Morningstar Direct, Counsel Portfolio Services
Market Performance: Jan 2010 – June 2011* “Been there… Done that” Over the second quarter of 2011, markets in U.S. and Canada appear to have witnessed a similar trend to that seen in the second quarter of 2010. * Past market or investment or market performance is not necessarily a predictor of future performance.
History Of Market Declines S&P 500 Composite Index (3 Jan 1928 – 22 Jan 2011) Source: Ned Davies Research You see a -10% correction almost once every year and a correction of -20% almost every three years Corrections are painful, but normal.
Historically: Macro Trends, Trigger Declines; Micro Trends, Trigger Gains Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank (July 2011)
Risk To Outlook Higher Risk Moderate Risk Lower Risk Source: RBC Economics Research
High Debt Deficit Plague Developed Economies Sovereign Debt and Deficits Better Worse Better Worse Source: The Economist Nations with high debt and persistently large deficits will have to face fiscal austerity measures.
Europe’s Web Of Debt Nations that will be in trouble if debts are not repaid Source: Royal Bank of Scotland, The New York Times, June 2010
European Nations Have Been Through This Before: Usual Workout Period Has Been 4 to 9 Years Select European Economies Undergoing Large Fiscal Adjustments Imbalances and Workout Periods 1981 through 2009 Source: Empirical Research Partners
U.S. Statutory Debt Limit Has Been Increased Since 1991 Source: treasurydirect.gov June 30, 2011
Gold: In Bubble Phase? Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management
Bull & Bear Market Performance S&P/TSX 500 Composite Index Bear Market S&P/TSX 500 Composite Index Bull Market Source: Bloomberg, Portfolio Analytics (Investors Group) Returns during bull markets are larger than the declines during bear markets.
History Rhymes* If history repeats, the trend implies that the next bull market may occur in late 2012. Source: Birinyin Associates, April 2011 Newsletter * Past market or investment or market performance is not necessarily a predictor of future performance.
Now In Year 11 Of A Sideways Market Source: Sionna Investment Managers Inc. • Markets have been range-bound 107 of the last 141 years. • After major bull markets, markets trend sideways for a minimum of 15 years. • It takes a minimum of 15 years to take the excess out of the markets. • Typically, when market P/Es fall to the single digits, it indicates that the excess has been taken out of the market. It is usually a sign that speculators are exhausted and have left the market and we are set-up for the next bull run.
Commodities And Resource-Heavy Index Tend To Do Relatively Better In Sideways Markets • Sideways markets end with single digit P/Es. • S&P/TSX currently at 20 times trailing P/E. • S&P 500 currently at 17 times trailing P/E. • Commodities have done well since 2000. If history repeats itself, we’ll see Canada outperform the U.S. in relative terms. • Unfortunately valuations in Canada are stretched – although commodities have potential to rally further.
Are Your Portfolios Ready? DJIA : 1966 - 1982 DJIA : 1966 - Present
Canadian Currency Performance Volatile quarter for the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar: Oil prices fluctuated greatly as excess supply was released into the markets by the IEA. The U.S. dollar fluctuated within a band of safety: Investors initially fled to the U.S. dollar amid the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis, and later fled to the euro to as the U.S. debt ceiling debate dragged on, raising fears of a potential default by the U.S. The euro was impacted by concerns over Greece’s sovereign debt situation and the potential for a contagion across Europe if Greece defaulted. CAD vs. Euro CAD vs. U.S. Dollar Source: Bank of Canada Source: Bank of Canada
Canada: Equities Versus Fixed Income Over the quarter and six month period, Bonds proved their importance in a well structured portfolio. Increased levels of uncertainty in the markets led to higher volatility in equities. Long-term: Equities vs. Bonds Short-term: Equities vs. Bonds Returns Returns Source: Globe and Mail
S&P TSX 60 Total Return S&P TSX Completion Total Return S&P TSX Small Cap Total Return MSCI Canada Growth Index MSCI Canada Value Index. Canadian Market Overview Investment Style Performance Market Cap Performance • Q2: Value stocks outperformed growth stocks • Telecom and Industrials did well: • Telecoms on the back of BCE’s strong performance, • Industrials on the back of companies such as Bombardier and Magna. • Energy and Materials were weakest • Impacted by increased supply of excess crude reserves from the IEA. • Technology sector impacted by the slide in RIM’s share price as investors worried about the company’s competitiveness. • Past 12 months: Growth and value in-line. Source: Morningstar Direct Source: Morningstar Direct
S&P 500 Total Return S&P Mid Cap 400 Total Return S&P Small Cap 600 Total Return Russell 1000 Value Index Russell 1000 Growth Index U.S. Market Overview Investment Style Performance Market Cap Performance • An abrupt shift in market leadership began in April in concert with questions about the global growth. • Defensive sectors such as Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities did well as investors prepared to reduce risk. • Energy and Financials were most negatively impacted on concerns over the sustainability of global growth. Source: Morningstar Direct Source: Morningstar Direct Returns measured in U.S. dollar terms
International Market Overview Europe and its sovereign debt crisis was the major headline news. The continuing Greece saga seems to have no end. Japan is beginning to recover and the ravages of the earthquake/tsunami earlier this year - beginning to add to economic growth and demand. China raised interest rates to temper growth - impacted global energy demands. India has been racked by scandals Brazil is beginning to raise some red flags due to: High interest rates - as high as 40%, Consumer debt service ratio approaching 28% of disposable income, far above the 16% in the supposedly over leveraged U.S. MSCI EAFE Value MSCI EAFE Growth Investment Style Performance Source: Morningstar Direct Returns measures in Canadian dollar terms
On Equities vs. Bonds • “As long term investors, we are not concerned about the constant worries of late. Given the evidence of a slow global recovery, strong corporate fundamentals, and the increasing threat of more inflation, we believe the equity market will continue to be the beneficiary of investment flows and, as such, we remain quite constructive on the outlook for the U.S. equity markets, not only for the remainder of the year, but for the medium term as well.”– Dreman Value Management, LLC • “Corporate bonds continue to have greater potential to outperform government bonds as the economy continues to trend positive.” – Acuity Investment Management Inc.
On Interest Rates • “Over the short term, we remain optimistic about economic activity in Canada. Interest rates should remain accommodative until next year. Leading indicators, employment, and retail sales are stable or improving. Pressure on the BOC to hold rates steady comes from the strong Canada dollar.”– Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc. • “While inflation remains elevated, we believe these levels are transitory. The net effect of a strengthening economy and higher but stabilizing inflation may be a modest amount of rate hikes from the Bank of Canada (BOC) in the coming year. The BOC’s concerns about Canadians’ indebtness may restrain them from a more aggressive hiking program.” – Acuity Asset Management Inc.
On Inflation • “We believe that some inflation would be a welcome sign for developed economies and central banks who are desperately trying to fight off deflation… We continue to believe that the recovery will be very slow, so inflation is not a current concern.”– Leon Frazer & Associates Inc. • “While inflation is trending higher, at this point, economic activity in Canada remains below full capacity utilization. We are not overly concerned over inflation for now.” – Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc.
On U.S. Debt • “With regard to Capitol Hill, we think a deal will be sculpted by U.S. policy-makers regarding the debt ceiling and a deficit reduction plan. There is tremendous incentive for them to accomplish this. Otherwise, beginning in early-August, the Treasury would have to match revenues with the level of Federal spending. According to a study recently released by the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), it would require an immediate 44% spending cut. That would be enormously painful on many fronts.”– Marsico Capital Management, LLC • “A major risk to markets is that the current battle over raising the U.S. Federal government’s debt ceiling appears to be driven by ideology and brinkmanship instead of by a concerted effort to come up with a balanced and economically sound plan to deal with U.S. deficits. This stand-off could result in a confidence destroying technical debt default by the U.S. government or drastic short-term spending cuts that torpedo the fragile economic recovery process.” – Picton Mahoney Asset Management • “While we feel it is unlikely that the U.S. Treasury will go into technical default, delaying interest payments to Treasury-bond holders, the closer negotiations go to the brink, the more markets are likely to price in such an outcome. These effects could include a temporary spike in Treasury yields and a rally in non-U.S. government debt such as German bonds and Canadian bonds.” – RBC Asset Management
On North America vs. Europe vs. The Emerging Markets • “Given the extraordinary support being provided by the European Central Bank, European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the liquidity facilities already in place, we think it is very unlikely that the problems of Greece, Ireland and Portugal would cause a systemic crisis within Europe or disrupt the global recovery.”– Franklin Templeton Investment Corporation • “We continue to favour North American equities over European equities as sovereign debt concerns overhang European markets. The American fiscal situation is a concern. Despite this concern, U.S. economic growth is positive and in our view could surprise on the upside in the second half of 2011. .” – Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc. • “We think the U.S. economy should be able to continue to grind its way upward. It has been, and probably will remain, a choppy process, with some growth concerns likely to surface along the way, but we think the economy, overall, is on a positive glide path.” – Marsico Capital Management, LLC
On North America vs. Europe vs. The Emerging Markets • “Europe is fraught with sovereign debt risk and many banks are under pressure with a potential need for re-financing. This is the sort of environment in which we often can find bargains.” – Mackenzie Cundill Investment Management Ltd. • “In the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, global supply chains were restored far more quickly than originally anticipated and the Japanese economy has shown some encouraging signs that it is on the mend.” – Marsico Capital Management, LLC • “We think growth moderating to more sustainable levels is a positive development over the long run and we expect emerging markets to continue leading the global recovery going forward. We expect policymakers in these countries to allow more currency appreciation against the Japanese yen, euro and U.S. dollar in an attempt to ease some of the imported inflationary pressures.” – Franklin Templeton Investment Corporation
On Commodities • “The second quarter was a difficult quarter for commodities due to sovereign debt and economic woes. Despite the correction, the fundamentals for commodities remain strong. Global economic activity is improving while China’s growth remains in the 8% to 9% range.” – Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc. • “The delicate supply and demand imbalance for resources does not look set to recede and we believe this will be a theme that will continue to impact portfolios for years to come, albeit with periods of volatility.” – Acuity Investment Management Inc. • “Demand from emerging economies and the stabilization in advanced economies suggests to us that commodity prices should continue to move higher, although at a more moderate pace than we’ve seen in the past year. There is considerable political and regulatory focus on inflation risks, and policies/strategies are being implemented to slow price appreciation.” – Thornmark Asset Management Inc. • “While an ebbing of Middle East tensions would lead to an easing in crude prices, the improvement in valuations of long-life reserves in stable regions is likely more permanent.” – RBC Asset Management Inc. • “The demand for energy is real and growing as opposed to the more speculative demand that producers of basic and precious materials face.” – Leon Frazer & Associates Inc.
On Market Volatility • “Many investors have turned fearful after the relatively sharp correction in June. However, this correction was somewhat necessary after the rapid rise that began last fall. Note the S&P/TSX Composite was in negative territory this time last year, which is also traditionally a seasonally weak period for equities.”– Leon Frazer & Associates Inc. • “The global economy continues to grow in fits and starts, creating higher levels of volatility. It seems as though we are in the midst of a “fit”. This is an ideal scenario for stock pickers.”– Forum Securities Ltd. • “It appears to us that a great deal of “bad news” has been priced into stocks. On estimated S&P 500 Index earnings of $95-$100 for the full year 2011, the Index is trading at a P/E multiple of about 13. That is well below the average market multiple of about 16-17 over the past 50 years.” – Marsico Capital Management, LLC
On The Recovery • The correction has been sharper for the Canadian market than either the U.S. market or our mandate. The S&P/TSX Composite is increasingly becoming a higher volatility benchmark owing to the large concentrations in commodity-related companies.” – Leon Frazer & Associates Inc. • “Although macro risks have increased, the probability of an immediate recession is low due to a number of global circumstances. Inflationary pressures appear to be easing and oil prices have corrected, largely due to the release of excess oil reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA). There are signs that Japanese growth is on the mend, as the country recovers from the devastation it endured in March. If the Chinese monetary tightening cycle comes to an end, the inherent risks it posed to global growth would abate, possibly providing a catalyst for a renewed recovery. Lastly, while another round of quantitative easing is unlikely, the central banks in both the U.S. and Europe seem committed to supplying liquidity and laying the foundations of a sustainable recovery.” – Panagora Asset Management Inc.
On The Recovery • “It has not been, and will not be, a linear improvement but we are firmly in the camp that a positive trend is in place and sustainable.” – Marsico Capital Management, LLC • “Overall, this crisis remains a stormy sea to be crossed, and while we expect to safely make it across, the voyage should be turbulent.” – Mawer Investment Management Ltd. • “We are on the path of a typical mid-cycle slowdown and that improving economic data will help fuel stock market gains over the next six to twelve months.” – Picton Mahoney Asset Management Inc. • “Our expectations of a continued “sweet spot” rally for the equity market remain in the context of a longer term range-bound market for equities.” – Picton Mahoney Asset Management
On The Recovery • “Our short term outlook is for the slow and choppy North American recovery to continue in the second half of 2011. We believe the Canadian market will trend toward the top end of our forecasted range, which is 14,500, implying a mid single digit market return for the year. Longer term, we believe there are significant headwinds for developed markets that centre on governments needing to raise taxes and central banks needing to raise interest rates.” – Leon Frazer & Associates Inc. • “Despite weaknesses, the recoveries in developed markets have been ongoing, albeit at a modest and uneven pace. We believe this trend will continue in the second half of 2011.” – Franklin Templeton Investment Corporation • “The next recession, expected sometime after 2012, has the prospects of being particularly severe as there will be little is any fiscal capacity for stimulation through the downturn.” – Thornmark Asset Management Inc. • “In the last quarter stock prices have been highly correlated to world news flow and less to company fundamentals, this may continue for a period of time. This sort of market affords opportunities that may yield good profits when the markets finally revert to a greater focus on company fundamentals.”– Mackenzie Cundill Investment Management Ltd.
Counsel Balanced Portfolio * Target asset allocation weights adjusted following annual review of Counsel portfolios and with the renewal of the simplified prospectus. This Portfolio is managed using a multi-manager process. The current sub-advisor or underlying mutual fund managerfor each mandate is listed beside the mandate for which it provides portfolio management / sub-advisory services. This Portfolio invests in underlying mutual funds (which may be managed by Counsel) currently sub-advised by the sub-advisors listed beside each investment mandate. For information on the underlying funds, please refer to the prospectus, which is available on our website at www.counselservices.com or on the SEDAR website at www.sedar.com.
Counsel Balanced Portfolio Effective Top 10 Sector Allocation Effective Asset Class Mix Effective Geographic Mix
Counsel Balanced Portfolio Positive and negative attribution for Q2 2011 Positive and negative attribution for the 12 months ended June 30, 2011 + Positive attribution to overall Portfolio, reflecting that the mandate outperformed its relative benchmark on a gross returns basis. - Negative attribution to overall Portfolio, reflecting that the mandate underperformed its relative benchmark on a gross returns basis.
Counsel Short Term Bond Effective Investment Mix Effective Bond Maturity
Counsel Fixed Income Effective Investment Mix Effective Bond Maturity
Counsel Canadian Value Effective Asset Class Mix Effective Top 10 Sector Allocation