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Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin

Advanced Computational Modeling of Social Systems. Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH) http://www.icr.ethz.ch/teaching/compmodels. 07.06.2005 III 14.06.2005 III 21.06.2005 III

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Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin

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  1. Advanced Computational Modelingof Social Systems Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH) http://www.icr.ethz.ch/teaching/compmodels

  2. 07.06.2005 III 14.06.2005 III 21.06.2005 III 28.06.2005 II Nicolas Bürkler (4) Thomas Fent Stephan Gammeter (2) Jean-Luc Geering (1) Jeremy Hackney (2) Lutz Krebs (4) Benjamin Lutz (1) Charles Mitchell (3) Gloria Müller (3) Carsten Murawski (1) Jonas Nart (3) Nils Weidmann (2) Presentations

  3. Positive feedback • Brian W. Arthur: “Positive feedbacks in the economy” Scientific American (Feb. 1990)

  4. Artificial Economies • Epstein & Axtell 1996. Growing Artificial Societies. MIT Press. Epstein & Axtell

  5. Average equilibrium characteristics

  6. Price convergence

  7. Price convergence

  8. The Santa Fe Artificial Stock • Simplistic stock market simulation • Isolates learning speed of traders as critical parameter • N traders • 1 unit risky stock, 20 000 units cash • Each trader seeks to buy or sell stock based on expectations of profit • Only one ‘stock’ in market • Genetic algorithm used for rule evolution • -> Faster learners exploit slower learners

  9. The Santa Fe Artificial Stock

  10. The Trade Network Game (TNG) • Evolution of trade networks among strategically interacting traders • Buyers, sellers, dealers • Traders instantiated as “tradebots” • Communication between tradebots to determine their trade partners • Tradebots evolve trade strategies

  11. The Trade Network Game (TNG)

  12. Java Auction Simulator (JASA)

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