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9.1 Understanding Probability

9.1 Understanding Probability. Remember to Silence Your Cell Phone and Put It In Your Bag!. Defining Probability. The use of numbers to describe the chance that something will happen. The ratio of favorable occurrences to the number of total possible occurrences of an observable event.

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9.1 Understanding Probability

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  1. 9.1 Understanding Probability Remember to Silence Your Cell Phone and Put It In Your Bag!

  2. Defining Probability • The use of numbers to describe the chance that something will happen. • The ratio of favorable occurrences to the number of total possible occurrences of an observable event. • For this class, unless asked to do differently, write your probabilities as simplified fractions

  3. Terminology • Experiment • Outcome • Sample Space • Equally Likely • Uniform Sample Space • Nonuniform Sample Space • Event

  4. Example Uniform Sample Space

  5. Example Nonuniform Sample Space

  6. Defining Probability (cont.) • Probability, P, of an event A for a uniform sample space: • Probability, P, of an event A for a nonuniform sample space:

  7. Terminology (cont.) • Random Event • Certain Event • Impossible Event • Complementary Events • Mutually Exclusive Events • Non-mutually Exclusive Events

  8. Properties of Probability • 0  P(A)  1 • The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in the sample space is 1 • P(a certain event) = 1 • P(an impossible event) = 0 • If A and B are complementary events, P(A) = 1 – P(B)

  9. Properties of Probability (cont.) • If A and B are mutually exclusive events, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) • If A and B are non-mutually exclusive events, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

  10. Law of Large Numbers • Empirical Probability • Theoretical Probability • Law of Large Numbers • If an experiment is repeated many times, the empirical probability of an event will approach the theoretical probability of the event occurring.

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