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Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Ni ñ o

Seasonal Climate – Winter 2009-10. Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Ni ñ o. Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010. Reading: T max , T min DJF 0910. Winter in the UK. DJF averages. Temperature Mean 1.6 ° C 2.1 ° C below 1971-2000 average.

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Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Ni ñ o

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  1. Seasonal Climate – Winter 2009-10 Overview • Northern hemisphere extra-tropics • El Niño Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010

  2. Reading: Tmax, Tmin DJF 0910 Winter in the UK DJF averages • Temperature • Mean 1.6°C • 2.1°C below 1971-2000 average Mike Stroud • Precipitation (%) • Total 249mm • 75% of average

  3. European anomalies - DJF Temperature Precipitation (% normal) NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  4. Surface air temperature December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 DJF average • Persistence • Warm Arctic + sub-tropics NOAA ESRL

  5. Westerly winds – DJF climatology U 250hPa U 850hPa NOAA ESRL

  6. Westerly winds – DJF 2009/10 U 250hPa U 850hPa NOAA ESRL

  7. Westerly winds – DJF 2009/10 anomalies U 250hPa U 850hPa NOAA ESRL

  8. December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 Monthly Mean (dm) Persistence (%) Z500 – persistence…. Percentage of days with significant anomaly of same sign (>15m) NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  9. …and February forecast skill • First month for which 60% anomaly correlation reached 10 days for Europe and northern hemisphere www.ecmwf.int

  10. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Z500 Arctic Oscillation (AO) PMSL NCEP reanalysis DJF 2009/10 Z500 anomaly PMSL anomaly

  11. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Z500 Arctic Oscillation (AO) PMSL NAO and AO time-series DJF average NOAA CPC

  12. El Niño SST anomaly DJF 09/10 OLR anomaly DJF 09/10 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

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