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Intermodality and the Economy: Seamless Transport

Intermodality and the Economy: Seamless Transport. Stephen Perkins. ECAC Forum 14 December 2011. The air passenger end-to-end journey. Transfer. Source: Adapted from UK Department for Transport, Improving the Air Passenger Experience, 2009. Generalised costs and access to airports.

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Intermodality and the Economy: Seamless Transport

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  1. Intermodality and the Economy: Seamless Transport Stephen Perkins ECAC Forum 14 December 2011

  2. The air passenger end-to-end journey Transfer Source: Adapted from UK Department for Transport, Improving the Air Passenger Experience, 2009

  3. Generalised costs and access to airports Generalised Costs • Cash cost • Marginal cost of car per person • Parking • Return trip for kiss and fly • Bus/rail/metro fare • Taxi fare per person • Time cost • Reliability (buffer time cost) • Comparative comfort/practicality • Baggage • Crowding • Transfers • stairs/distance for transfers on foot

  4. UK catchment analysis: two-hour drive-times • 2 hour drive catchments • Mean drive time 1.0 hour to nearest alternative • Potentially very competitive structure • Similar overlap of catchments in Japan, Italy ..... • Hubs usually different Source: David Starkie, ITF Roundtable 145

  5. Mode shares for passenger access to Heathrow (%) Source: Kouwenhoven, ITF Roundtable 145

  6. Fraport’s high speed rail connections • Koln 57 min • Bonn 40 min • Stuttgart 73 min • 174 long distance trains a day • AIRail integrated ticketing and bag drop Lufthansa-DB-Fraport • Rail&Fly rail discounts for 90 airlines for destinations all over Germany    High-speed lines 300 km/h    High-speed lines 250 km/h    Upgraded lines 200 km/h Sources: Wikipedia; Fraport.

  7. Can HSR relieve congested airports and airspace? Source: Wikipedia

  8. Top 10 European air passenger flows in 2009 • High Speed Rail • 9-12 M pass pa breakeven • 400-600km maximum competition with air • Stop at airport undermines time savings for city-city service • Network node more valuable than single HSL • HSR replaced Air 80%+ Source: Eurostat

  9. Modal shift from introduction of HSR (% shares) Source: Preston 2009.

  10. High speed rail o-d city pairs market shares Source: De Rus, ITF Roundtable 145

  11. HSR network and airports in Japan Source: Yamaguchi, ITF Symposium 2009

  12. Domestic air traffic in Japan 2008

  13. Air and Shinkansen demand (million pkm) Air Shinkansen Source: Yamaguchi, ITF Symposium 2009

  14. Conclusions • Principle access to airports is by road – end-to-end convenience with baggage. • Road catchment determines competition between airports. • Biggest modal transfer is from conventional rail to HSR until distances of 500 km or where sea crossing. • Value for hub feeder substitution depends on geography, as HSL only viable for city centre pairs with market of 9m plus • To relieve “capacity crunch” all options important • SESAR • Runway congestion pricing • Runway capacity • HSR where spatial geography fortuitous – Japan

  15. Thank you Stephen Perkinsstephen.perkins@oecd.org Postal address 2 rue Andre Pascal75775 Paris Cedex 16

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