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London and national transport policy in a low carbon, lean public expenditure future

London and national transport policy in a low carbon, lean public expenditure future Stephen Glaister Director RAC Foundation London School of Economics 1 st February 2010. 1. There is a lot going on!. 12 October 2009. The Prime Minister:

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London and national transport policy in a low carbon, lean public expenditure future

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  1. London and national transport policy in a low carbon, lean public expenditure future Stephen Glaister Director RAC Foundation London School of Economics 1st February 2010 1

  2. There is a lot going on!

  3. 12 October 2009 The Prime Minister: “sell off the assets” – inc. Dartford bridge Mayor of London “Draft Transport Strategy” London Population up 1.3 million by 2031 London road charging? Committee on Climate Change “First Report” Decarbonisation of transport National road charging? www.racfoundation.org 3

  4. 21 October 2009 ONS: UK population of 61.4 million rise to 71.6 million by 2033

  5. 31 December 2009 Delivery of High Speed 2 Report to Secretary of State for Transport Apparent all-party support for “a network of new high speed railways”

  6. Winter 2009-10 Flooding Frost damage to already poorly maintained roads Cost of putting infrastructure into good condition?

  7. January2010 Tory policies on rail (Less than 10% of passenger and freight market: heavily loss-making.) Reduce fares implies more capacity? Reduce crowding Increase competitive pressure on Network Rail Reduce competitive pressure on train operators Invest heavily in High Speed Rail network Teresa Villiers, 12 January

  8. January2010 Tory policies on road (More than 90% of passenger and freight market: Profit-making) Road congestion and unreliability a recognised as a problem… Improve road works, traffic lights More localised decision-making Lorry road user-charging (No general road user-charging) Make Highways Agency more efficient New road projects only “where … consistent with a responsible approach to the public finances”. Teresa Villiers, 22 January.

  9. After General Election Government expenditure cuts Transport NOT “protected”

  10. 2009 Budget Report

  11. A need for a strategy that is: Long term: road and rail Makes roads safer Deals with carbon Affordable – how do we pay for it? www.racfoundation.org 11

  12. London is the focus of the strategic road network and the most congested area Source: Eddington Review

  13. Source: Eddington Review

  14. Most rail travel is centred on London Source: Eddington Review

  15. Transport policy in London tends to concentrate on radial corridors Source: Mayor’s Draft Transport Strategy, 2009

  16. But a great deal of the movement is within Londonand by car! Source: Mayor’s Draft Transport Strategy, 2009

  17. Source: Mayor’s Draft Transport Strategy, 2009

  18. In Greater London 60 per cent of all personal mechanised trips are by private car; 22 percent are by bus or taxi and 3 percent by cycle so 60 + 22 + 3 = 83 percent are by road. Only the 17 percent are by rail. Travel in London Report No 1, TfL, 2009, Table 3.1.

  19. Mechanised trips entirely withinOuter London 76 percent are by car 18 percent by bus and 2 percent by rail.

  20. Growth will put extra demands on road network Source: Mayor’s Draft Transport Strategy, 2009

  21. Mayor’s draft Transport Strategy, 12 October 2009 What is the strategy for London Roads? www.racfoundation.org 21

  22. Funding and priorities? The Draft MTS lacks any clear indication of priorities. 35 policies and 129 proposals Which are the most important? Funding will be insufficient where will it be focussed?

  23. National Policy Long Term Strategy: road and rail

  24. All parties are claiming the economy will recover Implies return to growing demand for road and rail We are already short of capacity on both!

  25. Relentless road traffic growth(source: Road Statistics 2007, DfT) www.racfoundation.org 25

  26. Why congestion has got worse in the past

  27. Congestion will get worse! Between 2005 and 2041:(RAC Foundation estimates) Population will grow Most growth in the E, S and London Incomes will double Road traffic demand up over 40% Rail planning is assuming that rail growth will continue at recent rate 27

  28. National Traffic Forecast (DfT, 2008) www.racfoundation.org 28

  29. Plans to 2015 January 2009 Hard shoulder running alternative to motorway widening, 520 additional lane miles to the national strategic road network, of which 340 lane miles through hard shoulder running. £6bn announced in July 2008 Not much new capacity for local roads

  30. Investment good value for money? Source: Eddington (Dodgson, RAC Foundation, 2009)

  31. Appraisal methods subject to revision …but economic returns look very good for the right road or rail schemes (Eddington)

  32. Public transport cannot help much Public transport improvements may be good policy BUT They cannot make much impact on road congestion or carbon emissions at a cost that is feasible Rail and local bus each have 6% of passenger market

  33. The alternatives Let congestion continue to grow Build & widen roads without reforming pricing Reform pricing and heavily restrain demand To reform pricing to improve efficiency AND additional capacity to preserve mobility www.racfoundation.org 33

  34. Make roads safer www.racfoundation.org 34

  35. Small expenditures on improving roads have very high returns! Source: Road Safety Foundation, 2009 Jo Hill www.racfoundation.org 35

  36. Source: Mitchell, RAC Foundation, March 2010

  37. Source: Mitchell, RAC Foundation, March 2010

  38. Deal with carbon www.racfoundation.org 38

  39. Committee on Climate Change, First Report, 12 October 2009 www.racfoundation.org 39

  40. Committee on Climate Change, First Report, 12 October 2009 www.racfoundation.org 40

  41. Carbon: Follow through principles ofStern and Eddington Decide what the price of carbon should be Ensure everybody pays it Do road and rail appraisals properly and use them! www.racfoundation.org 41

  42. Effects on fuel consumption and carbon emissions www.racfoundation.org 42

  43. On current values Congestion is a bigger problem than carbon Carbon in transport will be reduced by • Implementation of better technology • Decarbonising surface transport (see Committee on Climate Change) • More sensible pricing www.racfoundation.org 43

  44. Picture is of more traffic Stable transport carbon emissions Achieved by improved vehicle technology etc. Implication: we will need more road capacity!

  45. Affordable: how do we pay for it? www.racfoundation.org 45

  46. Increase fuel duty or VED?? www.racfoundation.org 46

  47. Roads taxation is controversial! www.racfoundation.org 47

  48. National Road Charging NOT essential, but it helps! A means to manage demand more efficient use of existing network A way of generating more funds in order to enhance the network safety, management, physical capacity A way of dealing with carbon

  49. Reform ofroad investment and charging The primary problem: Lack of public understanding Even if understood, lack of public trust Nobody promotes interests of road users

  50. With or without national road charging … … change will require change in the institutions Institutions and governance matter!

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