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Sensitivity of air-sea exchange coefficients (Cd and Ch) on hurricane size and intensity of HWRF

Sensitivity of air-sea exchange coefficients (Cd and Ch) on hurricane size and intensity of HWRF. Young Kwon and Robert Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA HFIP Regional model physics team. Motivations

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Sensitivity of air-sea exchange coefficients (Cd and Ch) on hurricane size and intensity of HWRF

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  1. Sensitivity of air-sea exchange coefficients (Cd and Ch) on hurricane size and intensity of HWRF Young Kwon and Robert Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA HFIP Regional model physics team

  2. Motivations • Intensity skill of HWRF is not as good as track forecast skill (sometimes worse than statistical models). • Part of the poor intensity forecast skill might result from incorrect wind-pressure relationship of HWRF. • Subjective verification indicates that HWRF has the tendency of producing a larger storm with time, and this tendency seems to cause the wrong wind-pressure relationship. (wind speed is proportional to dp not p). • The goal of this work is to improve the intensity forecast skill of HWRF by correcting storm size and pressure-wind relationship with tuning Cd and Ch.

  3. Hurricane Katrina (2005082600) Simulation Result (HWRF and GFDL) P: 939.7hPa P: 943.5hPa W: 58.4 m/s W: 74.1 m/s

  4. Motivations • Intensity skill of HWRF is not as good as track forecast skill (sometimes worse than statistical models). • Part of the poor intensity forecast skill might result from incorrect wind-pressure relationship of HWRF. • Subjective verification indicates that HWRF has the tendency of producing a larger storm with time, and this tendency seems to cause the wrong wind-pressure relationship. (wind speed is proportional to dp not p). • The goal of this work is to improve the intensity forecast skill of HWRF by correcting storm size and pressure-wind relationship with tuning Cd and Ch.

  5. Background Hurricane intensity is proportional to Emanuel (1995) Besides intensity, the size of storm might also depends on surface exchange coefficients (espeially Cd)

  6. Upper level outflow H Energy gain from sea surface (sensible and latent heat) Ch Low level inflow Energy loss by surface friction Cd OCEAN

  7. Method and Case • 1. Change HWRF surface physics code in order to use prescribed Cd and Ch separately over the ocean. • 2. Conduct experiments using fixed Ch/various Cd in order to examine the sensitivity of Cd on storm size and intensity forecast skill. • Conduct experiment as in 3. except fixing Cd but varying Ch. • Case for this study: • Hurricane Hanna(2009.08.30.12 UTC) • Stays in the Ocean most of time, positive intensity bias

  8. Preliminary Results

  9. 24hr Forecast (MSLP and 850mb wind speed) Lin cd H209 980mb 38.2m/s 980mb 37.8m/s Dec cd Inc cd 980mb 34.6m/s 981mb 40.7m/s

  10. 72hr Forecast (MSLP and 850mb wind speed) Lin cd H209 942mb 65.6m/s 938mb 59.4m/s Dec cd Inc cd 956mb 54.7m/s 942mb 65.6m/s

  11. Future plan • Conduct experiments using more Cd profiles with cycled simulation • After investigating the sensitivity of Cd to hurricane, examine the Ch sensitivity to hurricane forecast skill with Cd value fixed • Find the optimum combination of Cd/Ch values in order to produce most accurate HWRF’s intensity and track forecast • Tune the surface exchange coefficients with inclusion of sea spray parameterization

  12. Spray effects on Cd and Ch Ch Exchange Coeff. Cd Wind Speed

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