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P. Shebalin Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow,

P. Shebalin Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, shebalin@mitp.ru www.rtptest.org. Results and lessons of the 10 years experiment of large earthquake prediction made in advance with a lead time months using Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP ).

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P. Shebalin Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow,

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  1. P. Shebalin Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, shebalin@mitp.ru www.rtptest.org Results and lessons of the 10 years experiment of large earthquake prediction made in advance with a lead time months using Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP)

  2. Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) Step 1. “Earthquake chains” detect area of long-range activation of seismicity Chain is a sequence of earthquakes that follow each other closely in time and space, quickly extending over large distances Pattern Chain depicts the rise of earthquakes correlation range. The chain is formed by union of all pairs of “neighbors” with Drij < r0×10c*min(Mi,Mj) Dtij < t0

  3. Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP)

  4. Successful prediction of the Tokach-oki earthquake, 2003

  5. California

  6. California

  7. Italy, 2004 and 2008

  8. Central Apennines, Alps, Northern Dinarides and Po ValleyTest using CSEM catalog

  9. Kurile islands, 2006-2007

  10. Aleutians, 2007

  11. North Pacific without Honshu, M>=7.2 California Gorda PlateAlaska Aleutians Kamchatka Kurils

  12. Japan, March 2011

  13. Honshu-Hokkaido-Central Kurile islands region, M>=7.2

  14. Summary of the experiment of prospective prediction using RTP algorithm, June 2003 – June 2012

  15. All events M>=3.5 and chains

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