44:11 Population Geography

1. 44:11 Population Geography Approved for GE Credit: Social Sciences Spring Semester 2006 MW 9:30am S207 Pappajohn Business Building Friday Discussion Section as arranged Department of Geography Gerard Rushton, Professor Darren Grafius, Teaching Assistant Go to ICON for further details, including syllabus and office hours, e-mail addresses and other course information: http://courses.uiowa.edu/

2. 44:11 Population GeographyGerard Rushton and Darren Grafius Approved for GE: Social Sciences Understanding the geographical patterns of population change for global, national and local areas. Salient migration flows for Ages 60-75 in the 1970’s Political redistricting: the original gerrymander, 1812.

3. Infectious and chronic disease rates: U.S. 1900-1970. (Williams and Torrens, 1993, p. 73.

4. Infant Mortality Rates, by race of mother --United States, 1970 - 1990. Source: CDC, 1994, p. 232.

5. Contraceptive prevalence and total fertility rate, developing and developed countries, 1993. The shaded area is +/- one child from the regression line. Source: Population Council Databank, 1993.

6. The Decline of Fertility in Europe Illustrations are from Ansley J. Coale and Susan Cotts Watkins, The Decline of Fertility in Europe, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986. HB991 C66 1979

7. Ig in selected national populations of Europe p. 39.

8. Position of Provinces in Europe in 1900 in Im, Ig plane P. 58

9. Ellipses summarizing the distribution of provinces of various countries of Europe in the Im, Ig plane, 1900

10. Ellipses summarizing the distribution of provinces of various countries of Europe in the Im, Ig plane, 1930 P. 62

11. Ellipses summarizing the distribution of provinces of various countries of Europe in the Im, Ig plane, 1960 p. 63

12. The map as a communication device • Maps convey a message • they select a part of reality • they abstract from reality • they inform but they can mislead • See How to Lie with Maps by Mark Monmonier.

13. In the 1950s the Population Flow in the United States was West and South

14. Net Flows among regions and immigrants from abroad, 1975-1976 and 1983-1984 Source: U.S. Census, Geographical Mobility, Current Population Reports, ser. P-20, no 407 1983-84

15. Average annual increase in population per decade Source: Population Bulletin (1986) vol. 41(2). See Jones, p. 163

16. Growth of World Population

17. Population and the Environment • DESERTIFICATION • related more to over-grazing than climate change... • POLLUTION: expected large increase due to developing world's economic "development." e.g. Coal development for energy likely to be very high in China, India and Brazil. Between 1970 and 1990, energy consumption rose 208 percent in China compared with 28 percent in developed countries in the same period.

18. We can animate maps and the animation conveys a message • The five maps that follow are from Peter Gould, The Slow Plague: A Geography of the AIDS Pandemic. Oxford, Blackwell, 1993.

22. 1988

24. If we understand the process of change through space through time, sometimes we can predict the next map • Consider the spread of AIDS in New York City in the late 1980s. • See Gould, 1993 and A Plague on Your Houses: How New York Was Burned Down and National Public Health Crumbled, by Deborah Wallace and Rodrick Wallace. 1998. New York; Verso.

25. The rise of the Aids death surface in the Bronx, 1984-90. Gould, 1993, p. 132.

26. Applied Population Geography • The application of geographic principles to populations of interest. • So far in 44:11 we have discussed the geographic principles of spatial diffusion and principles that describe the spatial choices of individual people and groups. • This week we will discuss principles for locating facilities and services to serve specific populations.

27. London, 1858. John Snow’s Map of Cholera

28. London, 1858. John Snow’s Map of Cholera Snow noted the spatial relationship between the location of the Broad Street Pump and the large numbers of deaths from Cholera. A lock was placed on the pump and the deaths declined dramatically.

29. Comparison of actual and optimal set of new maternity centres in 1982 Optimal 21+ 32 1979 centres Actual 53 centres Note how market area of former 4 centres is squeezed out in the 1982 pattern 22% more accessible These four are squeezed in the optimal pattern

30. What are the costs of making better location decisions? • We used a computerized geographical information system and computerized algorithms to compute the optimal patterns. • Later, in several simulation experiments where we used simple rules to make “the location decisions,” much better locations were selected than those actually selected. • There is a large discrepancy between what was and what could have been achieved.

31. “Professor disputes enrollment forecast” • “A University of Iowa geography professor Tuesday told the Iowa City School Board it is working with “imperfect enrollment projections.” … • “Although the district’s statisticians have projected a decreasing enrollment, Rushton predicted the next five years will see a relatively stable school population. ‘But the five years following that will show an increase in school population,’ he said.” • “He forecast a 25 to 35 percent increase in the primary school population between 1984 and 1991. ‘The district can expect from 105 to 190 additional students per year in the primary schools.’” (Iowa City Press-Citizen, Nov. 26, 1980)

32. “Enrollment will increase, Prof tells board”(Iowa City Press-Citizen--March 17, 1982, p. 1A) • “Iowa City School District enrollment will bottom out in 1983 at 7,755, then increase to 9,023 by 1994, a University of Iowa geography professor told the school board Tuesday night.” • [Total enrollment in 1994, 12 years after the above quote, was 9,646]

33. 832 823 K 1 1995 793 832 K 1 1996 795 791 K 1 1997 798 796 1 K 1998 Calculation of Grade Progression Rates

34. 832 823 1.0000 K 1 1995 793 832 K 1 1996 795 791 K 1 1997 798 796 1 K 1998 832 / 832 = 1.0000 Calculation of Grade Progression Rates

35. 832 823 1.0000 K 1 1995 793 832 0.9975 K 1 1996 795 791 K 1 1997 798 796 1 K 1998 791 / 793 = 0.9975 Calculation of Grade Progression Rates

36. 832 823 1.0000 K 1 1995 793 832 0.9975 K 1 1996 795 791 1.0038 K 1 1997 798 796 1 K 1998 798 / 795 = 1.0038 Calculation of Grade Progression Rates

37. 1.0004 832 823 1.0000 K 1 1995 793 832 0.9975 K 1 1996 795 791 1.0038 K 1 1997 798 796 1 K 1998 (832+791+798) / (832+793+795) = 2421 / 2420 = 1.0004 Calculation of Grade Progression Rates This is a three-year, grade-progression rate from K to first grade

38. Address Matching Initial Pass: 75 - 80 % Successful Interactive Re-match

39. Catchment Areas

40. 1995 1996 1997