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What Would it Take for Zambia’s Cattle Industry to Achieve its Potential?

What Would it Take for Zambia’s Cattle Industry to Achieve its Potential?. Sunil Sinha Prepared for the Job, Prosperity and Competitiveness Project Supported by the World Bank, African Development Bank, and DFID. Huge Potential of Cattle. Substantial Grazing Land, Good Conditions.

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What Would it Take for Zambia’s Cattle Industry to Achieve its Potential?

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  1. What Would it Take for Zambia’s Cattle Industry to Achieve its Potential? Sunil Sinha Prepared for the Job, Prosperity and Competitiveness Project Supported by the World Bank, African Development Bank, and DFID

  2. Huge Potential of Cattle

  3. Substantial Grazing Land, Good Conditions • 4 times more grazing than arable land • 3 agricultural zones suited to livestock • If Zambia = Kenya : additional asset value of US$4.5 billion.

  4. Domestic Market: Potential for Fast Growth • Consumption of beef and dairy products rises fast when incomes increase. • Zambians consume very little beef and dairy products.

  5. Zambia could export more beef & Dairy products to neighbours • Namibia and Botswana supply beef to RSA and export to Europe. RSA is a net importer. Exports to DRC, Angola. • Botswana, RSA, Tanzania, Malawi import dairy products.

  6. International Markets Huge & Very Competitive • World Beef and Dairy Trade = $50 billion+. • Slow growth, Prices falling in real terms.

  7. Cattle: Key To Reducing Rural Poverty • Livestock owned by most rural households • Higher proportion of household incomes than crops (c 40%). • Cattle industry: 310,000 (c 25%) of households • Cattle is the largest asset (US$1-1.5 billion)

  8. Under Performing, Uncompetitive

  9. Small Cattle Population, Concentrated In 4 Provinces.

  10. Underperforming In Beef & Dairy • Production is not much higher than1990, negligible exports...

  11. Currently, Not Competitive In Beef Source: FAOSTAT, year 2007, Zambia figure: consultants’ calculation Competitive in live weight, not in dressed weight.

  12. Nor In Dairy Farm Gate Producer’s Price, US$/Litre Source: FAOSTAT, Heifer International, Zambia figure: consultants’ calculation Cost of raw milk is high because of scarcity, still importing powder to reconstitute as milk.

  13. Why Not Fulfilling Its Potential?

  14. Small Market, But Now Growing • Incomes low outside formal employment • Prices: higher than neighbours, • 10% of food expenditure • But market for beef now growing 5%-7%, • Dairy c. 10% p.a. But constraint in Lusaka. • Driven by: • higher urban incomes, urbanisation • changing lifestyles, • changing food consumption patterns

  15. 3 Systems: Motives, Opportunities & Constraints Cattle Population (000)

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