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AANZFTA Business Seminar

AANZFTA Business Seminar. “Partners in Growth: Services Trade with Southeast Asia”. 3 June 2011, Amora Hotel, Wellington. AANZFTA Business Event “Partners in Growth : Services Trade with Southeast Asia” Wellington, New Zealand 3 June 2011. Narongchai Akrasanee, Ph.D.

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AANZFTA Business Seminar

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  1. AANZFTA Business Seminar “Partners in Growth: Services Trade with Southeast Asia” 3 June 2011, Amora Hotel, Wellington

  2. AANZFTA Business Event “Partners in Growth : Services Trade with Southeast Asia” Wellington, New Zealand 3 June 2011 Narongchai Akrasanee, Ph.D. AANZFTA and The Prospects for Services Trade MFC Asset Management Fiscal Policy Research Institute

  3. Outline • AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives • Trade and Investment between ASEAN and Australia – New Zealand • Future of ASEAN Economy and Prospects for AANZFTA 3

  4. 2009, Toward AEC ATICA, AFAS & ACIA AANZFTA effective Jan 10 2008 ASEAN Charter in effect 2007 CEBU Concord (ASEAN Charter) ASEAN Community by 2015 AKFTA effective Jan 10 2003 Bali Concord Revive ASEAN 2020 AIFTA signed Aug 09 1997-98 - Asian Crisis 2001 - 9/11 2002 - FTAs’ Proliferation in ASEAN AJCEP effective Jun 09 1998,AIA 1997 ASEAN Vision 2020 ACFTA effective Oct 03 1996,AFAS 1993,AFTA CMI – May 00 ABMI – Aug 03 1977,PTA 1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives AANZFTA is one agreement among many ASEAN’s FTAs/RTAs AEC in 2015 APEC 2020 EAC? ASEAN-5 1967 ASEAN -10 1999 EAS 2005 ASEAN +3 /ASEAN + 6 1999 1993 --- APEC 1995 --- ASEM

  5. 1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives(Cont.) • Factors and major events affecting ASEAN’s trade policies • Regime changes (political and/or economic) • 1966 Suharto, President of Indonesia 1967 ASEAN, with market economy • 1975 End of Vietnam War 1976 → , ASEAN economic cooperation • 1979/80 Second Oil Crisis ASEAN export-oriented policies 5

  6. 1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives(Cont.) • 1989 End of Cold War 1990 , GMS – From Battle Field to Market Place , Expanding to ASEAN 10 1990, China’s strong move to market economy 1991, India started market economy • 1991/92 Concluding GATT’s Uruguay Round 1993, AFTA • 1998 WTO’s trade liberalization process stalling (Seattle Riot, 1999) • 2001 Doha Round with difficult agenda (Mike Moore as DG) Proliferation of FTAs, RTAs 6

  7. 1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives(Cont.) • Basics about ASEAN’s trade policies • Manufacturing • Began with import substitution, then changed towards export-oriented particularly from 1980s • Agriculture • Protection, with gradual liberalization a la WTO and AFTA • Services • Protection in general, with exception in some services often on an ad hoc basis • AEC 2015will allow for gradual liberalization in services trade AANZFTA will open opportunities for first trade in manufactured goods, then agriculture, and later in services 7

  8. ASEAN’s merchandise trade with AUS - NZ 2. Trade and Investment between ASEAN and Australia – New Zealand Sources: ADB and ASEAN Secretariat 8

  9. 2. Trade and Investment between ASEAN and AUS-NZ (Cont.) • AUS-NZ and ASEAN investment Foreign direct investment net inflow to ASEAN Sources: ASEAN Secretariat

  10. 2. Trade and Investment between ASEAN and AUS-NZ (Cont.) • Tourist arrivals in ASEAN from AUS-NZ Sources: ASEAN Secretariat

  11. 3. Future of ASEAN Economy and Prospects for AANZFTA • ASEAN and the World 11

  12. 3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.) • Major trading partners of ASEAN • The role of ASEAN trading partners e.g. AUS, NZ, Korea, India, and China are on the rise. Share to Total ASEAN Trade (%) 12 Source: ASEAN Secretariat

  13. 3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.) • ASEAN Economic trend Source: Asian Development Outlook 2011, ADB

  14. Asia North America Europe North America Africa South America South America Australia 3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.) From Northern Atlantic Centric Asia/Pacific Centric

  15. 3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.) • Moving towards quality growth • Eco-friendly industrial development • Agriculture for quality foods and fuels • Services for better quality of life and productivity improvement • Energy for security and friendly environment 15

  16. 3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.) • Demand from Australia-New Zealand for • Energy raw materials, machinery and equipments • Products in the supply chain for automotives, machinery, electronics and electricals • R&D, know how, in agriculture and foods • Professional services in industrial R&D, health and wellness care, legal and accounting, education and training, design and product development, etc. 16

  17. AANZFTA Business Seminar “Partners in Growth: Services Trade with Southeast Asia” 3 June 2011, Amora Hotel, Wellington

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