The Future of Decision Support Services

1. The Future of Decision Support Services Mark Fox Warning & Coordination Meteorologist WFO Fort Worth/Dallas www.weather.gov/fortworth

2. Why Decision Support ? www.weather.gov/fortworth

3. The Monolith Monsters • Made in 1957 – true in 2009 • Weather Briefings still done essentially the same as in the movie • Weather Information still gathered essentially the same as in the movie • The decisions being made are still essentially the same as in the movie • What does it mean for me? www.weather.gov/fortworth

4. What Has Changed ? • Technology • Compare 2009 to 2000 • Cell Phones • Social Networks • Internet Accessibility • Internet Storage Capability • RADAR availability • GIS • Pre 9/11/2001 www.weather.gov/fortworth

5. Change is Continuous • Meteorology has and hasn’t changed all that much (technology) • Goal is still the same • Emergency Management : Protect People • National Weather Service: Protect People • The way we approach the mission is changing www.weather.gov/fortworth

6. Mindset Changes Traditional NWS Decision Support NWS Products & Services Here is what ‘it’ means Phenomenon produces Impacts Spending time training for the extreme events Providing Service with the forecast • Products >> Service • Here ‘it’ is • Phenomenon • Spending time on the routine forecast • Producing the forecast www.weather.gov/fortworth

7. Mindset Changes Traditional NWS Decision Support NWS www.weather.gov/fortworth

8. The Dilemma • Each of these transitions makes perfect sense • Each of these transitions goes against NWS culture • For instance • “I didn’t sign up to tell people about impacts, I signed up to forecast the weather.” • “We provide the forecast. Whatever they do with it when they get it is up to them.” • “A good forecast is all they need.” www.weather.gov/fortworth

9. Why the local NWS exists • Everyone or anyone can see weather information • Depending on Expertise…we see things differently www.weather.gov/fortworth

10. For Instance…EM’s • What do you see ? www.weather.gov/fortworth

11. For Instance…Mets • What do you see ? www.weather.gov/fortworth

12. For Instance…Jose or Steve • What do you see ? Similar setup to May 15, 2003 23 tornadoes EF2 or greater Numerous golf-ball hail (or larger)reports Wind Damage Numerous trucks blown off of Interstate 40 = www.weather.gov/fortworth

13. Decision Support • You can get a forecast anywhere at anytime • You can’t get your own personal meteorologist at your beck and call anywhere else • Not without paying extra • Not one with your same goal in mind: the protection of life and property • We exist to help you make decisions www.weather.gov/fortworth

14. Making the Change • Operationally, we (NWS) should be closer to the EM model.* www.weather.gov/fortworth

15. Making The Change www.weather.gov/fortworth

16. Making The Change www.weather.gov/fortworth

17. Current System www.weather.gov/fortworth

18. The Model • Southern Region Decision Support Team visited NASA in April • Focused on their simulation training and operations • Plan, Train, Fly www.weather.gov/fortworth

19. STS – 125 Simulation Photo by William Bunting www.weather.gov/fortworth

20. NASA Simulation • Simulation? More like a dress rehearsal • Several things stood out to me: • Flight Director demanded realism • Simulation lasted all day long • People were sweating the big decisions • Feedback was instant • Feedback was welcome www.weather.gov/fortworth

21. Amarillo TORex09 • Same things stood out to me: • Emergency Management demanded realism • Simulation occurred in real time • People were sweating big decisions • Feedback was instantaneous • Feedback was welcome www.weather.gov/fortworth

22. Learning Opportunities • How can NWS and EM community train together? • When appropriate and necessary • Tabletop exercises • Full blown simulations • Workshops • Routine Drills www.weather.gov/fortworth

23. Learning Opportunities • Shouldn’t stop at the drill level • Evaluation of training as important as the training itself • Are we doing what we should be doing? • Are we doing it effectively? • Are we continually improving? • Are we a part of your operations? • Are you a part of our operations? www.weather.gov/fortworth

24. Questions We Can’t Answer • Shouldn’t stop at the drill level • Evaluation of training as important as the training itself • Are we doing what we should be doing? • Are we doing it effectively? • Are we continually improving? • Are we a part of your operations? • Are you a part of our operations? www.weather.gov/fortworth

25. The Trade-Off • Routine forecast mostly automated • Forecasters always diagnosing and forecasting the meteorology of the situation • Focus is then on impact situations • Forecast is for X • Forecast discussion explaining why X is most likely • Graphical forecast showing X and potential for Y • Recorded Briefing explaining that Y could happen and how. • Web page explaining X, Y and Z are possible • Phone calls / e-mails with updates www.weather.gov/fortworth

26. Skills For the Future • Communication • Written • Verbal • Graphical • Meteorology & Hydrology • Remains the Foundation • NWS should be the experts www.weather.gov/fortworth

27. Skills For the Future • Confidence • Meteorology still not an exact science • Incident Command Structure • Where does our information fit • Not always the most important piece of data • Detailing weather information to known decision points • Must know the decision points www.weather.gov/fortworth

28. The Bottom Line • This is a partnership…plain and simple • For the NWS to be effective, we need you • You need the NWS to be effective www.weather.gov/fortworth

29. Thank You • Questions ? • Comments ? • Threats ? • mark.fox@noaa.gov • 817.831.1574 www.weather.gov/fortworth