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MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures

MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures. Scanning Science Popularisation Futures Bighi , 24 October 2007 FUTURREG Malta Introduction to Futures Studies and Tools Jennifer Cassingena Harper. MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures. Fu ture Studies.

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MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures

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  1. MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures Scanning Science Popularisation Futures Bighi, 24 October 2007 FUTURREG Malta Introduction to Futures Studies and Tools Jennifer Cassingena Harper MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures

  2. Future Studies Future studies is a discipline that includes all forms of looking into the future, from trend extrapolation to utopia. (McHale). It is a study of the ways in which futures can happen. Future studies are the systematic identification and study of alternative futures to enhance our ability to identify the opportunities and mitigate the risks which alternative futures present. Future may be defined as a time to come: an array of possibilities emerging from conditions in the present. Forecast is an estimate of what might happen in the future - a likely occurrence, a description of a possible future based on the collection, analysis and synthesis of available pertinent data. Source: Prospectiva

  3. Foresight: Science or Art Source: FOREN Guide

  4. Foresight - Science or art? Foresight is an approach at overlap of three converging trends since mid-1990’s (Miles): • Futures Studies – shift from predictive to exploratory approaches, iteration and involvement of users for embedding /implementation. Since 1950’s Futures studies or “futurology” has not been considered an objective science but an art, a composition of imagination and subjective certainties …. an individual and a community – not to speak about the whole mankind – do not have only one future but indeterminately many possible, alternative ones. (Jouvenel • Strategic Planning – shift from rational to evolutionary approaches, uncertainty is the norm, economic progress linked to disruptive innovations, qualitative vs quantitative changes within stable structures; long-term planning discredited but still needed. • Policy Analysis – shift to open, participatory approach, knowledge is distributed and policy-makers have to find ways to capture it.

  5. Defining Foresight What Foresight is NOT: • An approach for predicting the future (prediction implies knowing aspect(s) of the future with certainty and precision. This is not possible in social contexts with qualitative rather than quantitative factors predominating). • A Panacea or universal cure

  6. Foresight is traditionally defined as: • A tool or set of tools used “to survey as systematically as possible what chances for development and what options for action are open at present, and then follow up analytically to determine to what alternative future outcomes the developments would lead” [1] 2. More recently, it has been recognized that foresight is more than just a set of tools, and involves a process whereby the tools are just one element, interacting with human inputs of intellect, expertise and sector-specific knowledge. a process - “a systematic, participatory, future intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process”[2] [1] Martin B.R and Irvine J. (1989) Research Foresight Priority-Setting in Science [2] EU FOREN - Foresight for regional development—FOREN—A Practical Guide to Regional Futures http://foren.jrc.es/

  7. The human dimension But foresight is essentially embodied in the actors involved in its design and implementation and may thus also be defined in relation to two key human attributes: 3. foresight as a philosophy or particular mindset/approach to life evident at the individual or group level. It separates the proactive from the reactive, the path-dependent from the path-breakers. 4. foresight as a capacity for contemplating, anticipating and coping with the future also evident at the individual or group level. It entails a set of skills which can be taught but presumes a mindset open to creative thinking and proactive exploration of the future.

  8. Actors in the spotlight Source: adapted from Georghiou, 2003

  9. Strategic Futures Analysis Characteristics • Structured, evidence-based process • Wide range of analytical tools • Resilient and innovative strategies • Neutral space for challenge • Encourages broader dialogue Source: Future Generation

  10. Source: FOREN

  11. Types of Tools • Quantitative Toolsprovide numerical representation of future developments, e.g. forecasts and modelling. Theygive a great deal of weight, an ability to examine rates andscales of changes but they limit the comprehension of social and political variables andare not always reliable. • Qualitative Toolsvary from creative thinking to more systematic techniques. Used when data are hard to collect ornot available. Foresight can never be completely dominated by quantitative methods: the mix depends on access to relevant expertise and the nature of the issues.

  12. Types ofTools • Exploratory Tools(“outward bound”) start from the present and move forward to examine kinds of alternative future developments it can lead to. Look at implications of possible developments that lie outside familiar trends: What if methods • Normative Tools (“inward bound”) start with the creation of a preliminary view of possible (preferred) futures, then an analysis of how these futures may grow out of the present - asking what trends and events would take us there or can be avoided. How methods.

  13. Tools by Phases • Define the problem:specific challenges and needs, e.g. a longer-term innovation strategy), set the time horizon. Methods: Panels, SWOTs or brain-storming, 2. Scope -possible focus on specific sectors, bottom-up vs top-down, extent and structure of consultation (experts/non-experts), resources, choosing appropriate methods. 3. Identify the key variables analysing the relations between variables, by placing them in matrix to identify drivers. Methods: panels/ interviews/desk-based research/specialised studies/ cross-impact analysis: influence and dependency graph. • Gathering data on trends and drafting hypotheses. Methods: trend analysis, simulation modelling, weak signals. 5. Exploring possible future through scenario-building Methods: Exploratory or Normative approaches, panels

  14. Popular Tools Expert panels Scenarios – baseline, success scenarios and disruption scenarios On-line fora and delphi Horizon scanning Creativity sessions Future Dialogues

  15. Popular Methods Worldwide (EFMN)

  16. Multi-use of Methods

  17. Blends of social themes and policy concerns A balance of qualitative and quantitative for robust, evidence-based results Creative process for creative product Adaptive foresight and context-based learning Hybrid Approaches

  18. References • http://forera.jrc.es/fta/intro.html • http://www.efmn.info • http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/home.htm • http://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSociety • http://www.costa22.org/ • http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm • http://www.unido.org/doc/12296 • http://www.futurreg.net/ • http://www.acunu.org/millennium/ • http://www.theworldcafe.com/ • http://www.futuresearch.net/

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