Nuclear Energy and the Environment

1. Nuclear Energy and the Environment James S. Tulenko Professor, University of Florida Director, Laboratory for Development of Advanced Fuels and Materials President, ANS ANS Chapter, RaleighEastern Carolinas SectionThursday, Dec. 2, 2004

2. The American Nuclear Society The Society for the Advancement of Nuclear Science and Technology to Benefit Humanity

3. The American Nuclear Society • Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C. • Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization. • Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology.

4. The American Nuclear Society 11,000 individual members • 800 (7%) outside the United States • 47 countries represented • 8% under 35; 15% over 66 • ~700 with less than 5 years experience • Under 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to today

5. ANS Goals • To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology. • To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge exchange. • To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information. • To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.

6. American Nuclear Society 1993 1998 2003

7. ANS on the Move Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004 Membership has increased for the first time in many years. Bottom Line: ANS is Growing after years of decline.

8. Abundant Energy • Is the daily bread of civilization • Drives the economy • Drives the quality of life • Frees man to be creative

9. Let There Be Light

10. Nuclear Energy – A Key Player In The U.S. Energy Mix • Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S. • Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible. • Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear. • Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads. • The future of nuclear energy is very bright.

11. Equal to  4 new 1,000-MW plants Equal to 23 new 1,000-MW plants 850,000 800,000 753,900 750,000 727,915 700,000 673,702 640,440 650,000 600,000 576,862 550,000 1990 1994 1998 1999 2000 2005 Dramatic Increase in Output 790,000

12. Nuclear Costs are at an All-Time Low(in constant 2001 cents/kWh) Source: RDI /EUCG for Nuclear data, RDI/EUCG for Fossil Fuels. Converted to 2001 dollars by NEI

13. NUCLEAR POWER FACTS Worldwide: (36 Countries) 441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours 31 Reactors under construction (several more ordered) 17% of world’s electricity North America: 118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts (103 in U.S. = 20% of electricity 15 in Canada = 12% of electricity)

14. 10 9 8 7 AEO2002 6 AEO2003 12.1 5 4 3 1.7 2 Average nominal price 1970 2025 1 History Projections 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Electricity Price, 1970-2025(2001 cents/kilowatt hour)

15. Nuclear Capacity Factors:All-Time High 79.5% in 1998 86.8% in 1999 89.6% in 2000 90.7% in 2001 91.9% in 2002 Source: Platts World Nuclear Performance, February 2003

16. Growth In Electric Demand for Developing Countries

17. Factors Motivating Use Of Nuclear Power In China

18. Top 10 Nuclear Countries(1999 Generation) • Measured by generation, U.S. nuclear program is: • as large as France and Japan (#2 and #3) combined; and • larger than the other 7 nations in the top 10 combined billion kilowatt-hours Source: IAEA

19. World Energy Consumption1970-2025

20. How Do We Get Our Energy • Coal • Gas • Oil • Nuclear • Hydro

21. Energy Output From Various Fuels TYPE FUEL (1kg) FIREWOOD COAL OIL URANIUM • ELECTRICITY PRODUCED (kw-hr) • 1 • 3 • 4 • 400,000 (once-through) • 7,000,000 (re-cycled U and Pu) (Ref: IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2000)

22. World Energy Consumption by Fuel1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

23. World Oil Trade: 1973, 2001 and projected 2025

25. China Oil Demand • China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the first half of this year. It recently surpassed Japan to become the world's second-biggest oil importer. Its own oil production, once large enough to supply its needs, has fallen into steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an unexpected cutoff of supply..

26. China Oil Demand • The Chinese government has reportedly drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is already building 52 massive tanks near the East China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold more than 25 million gallons.

27. World Oil Reserves by CountryJanuary 1, 2003

29. World Carbon Emissions by Fossil Fuel 1970-2025

31. Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

32. The Earth’s Surface is Warming

33. The Earth’s Climate is Changing

34. Sea Level Rise Due to Global Warming

35. 1973 - 2002 NOX 40 million tons SO2 80 million tons Carbon 3 billion tons Emissions Avoided By U.S. Nuclear Power Plants

36. CO2 Emissions Fell 2/3 as a Result of French Nuclear Program

37. Challenges Facing Nuclear • Lower capital cost, and shorter construction time needed. • Get on with the waste disposal solution, including recycling spent fuel. • Government paid insurance – Price Anderson. • Lower proliferation threat for worldwide deployment. • Gov’t support next generation of reactors. • Assure adequate trained manpower supply.

38. Actions to Address Challenges • Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear materials without significantly impacting beneficial use. • Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste. • Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement. • Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership.

39. Undergraduate Student Enrollment Trends In Enrollment DOE Investment ($ in Millions) Number of Students

40. Grassroots Initiative • Address public fears with scientific facts and by ANS members getting involved in local events, with local media, and Representatives.

41. Top Challenges for Next Generation • Continue professional development / Be Active! • Maintain the Safety Culture. • Engage local Legislators - Civics 101: Influence the energy awareness of your Representative. • Deal with public opinion; changing the “Nuclear Perception.” • Bring reality into discussions of alternate energy. • Make a difference with your life & your career.

42. SUMMARY • Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow. • New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs. • Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost. • Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage. • Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs. • Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems.

43. The Future “In science, credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not the man to whom the idea first occurs.” Charles Darwin -Hopefully, Dr. James Lovelock will convince the World