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An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in the Upper South Platte River Basin, Colorado

An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in the Upper South Platte River Basin, Colorado. Steve Markstrom U.S. Geological Survey Lakewood, Colorado. Climate Change Effects on Western Riparian Forests:. Flood Timing, Tree Seed Dispersal Timing, and Seedling Establishment

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An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in the Upper South Platte River Basin, Colorado

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  1. An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in the Upper South Platte River Basin, Colorado Steve Markstrom U.S. Geological Survey Lakewood, Colorado

  2. Climate Change Effects on Western Riparian Forests: • Flood Timing, Tree Seed Dispersal Timing, • and Seedling Establishment • Patrick Shafroth & Laura Perry (USGS-FORT) • Lauren Hay, Roland Viger, & Steve Markstrom (USGS-MoWS) • Glen Liston (CSU-CIRA) • David Blodgett & Nathaniel Booth (USGS-CIDA)

  3. Cottonwood and Willow Establishment • Cottonwoods and willows have specific requirements for germination and establishment • Small, short-lived, non-dormant seeds • Must land on bare, moist surfaces to survive • Only establish in occasional years with the right conditions

  4. Seedlings that germinate on moderately high surfaces desiccate as floodwaters recede Seedlings that germinate on low surfaces are scoured away by ice and floods Too high – drought stress Recruitment band Too low – ice and flood scour Base flow

  5. Research Question:Will warming associated with climate change decouple the timing of seed dispersal from spring floods?

  6. Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

  7. Coarse Resolution PRMS model for South Platte River, Front Range in Colorado 25,000 km2 184 Stream Segments 368 HRUs

  8. Stream Gage Information and PRMS Parameter Regionalization

  9. PRMS Stream Flow Calibration USGS 06752000 CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT MOUTH OF CANYON, NEAR FORT COLLINS, CO

  10. PRMS Stream Flow Calibration USGS 06724000 ST. VRAIN CREEK AT LYONS, CO.

  11. PRMS Stream Flow Calibration USGS 06729500 SOUTH BOULDER CREEK NEAR ELDORADO SPRINGS, CO.

  12. PRMS Stream Flow Calibration USGS 06715000 CLEAR CREEK ABV WEST FORK CLEAR CREEK NR EMPIRE CO

  13. PRMS Stream Flow Calibration USGS 06701500 SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BELOW CHEESMAN LAKE, CO

  14. Seed dispersal phenology • Weekly site visits, 2010 and 2011 • 7-10 trees per species per site

  15. PRMS simulation showing timing of stream flow for 1995 snow melt season

  16. PRMS coarse resolution stream segment nodes

  17. Evaluation of snow melt timing with PRMS model: • Historical record • Climate projections • Land use changes • Geography and topography

  18. http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mows

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