Mobile Bay Simulation Experiment CI Strategy 2

1. Mobile Bay Simulation ExperimentCI Strategy 2 Northern Gulf Coastal Hazards Collaboratory Annual Meeting 12 June 2013

4. Hypothesis & Approach Does the speed of a hurricane making landfall near Mobile Bay impact the nutrient distribution within the bay? • Mississippi State University – University of Alabama University of South Alabama – University of Alabama Huntsville Louisiana State University • Loosely coupled models – HSPF – WRTDS – EFDC – ADCIRC • Data Transfer – Analysis – Metadata – Data Extraction

5. Hypothesis & Approach Seamless DEM, Land Use MODIS/GIRAS, Stream Network, Outlet Locations, River Discharge, Water Quality Concentration, Grids, Wind Models. FUTURE Loose Couple Model HSPF – WRTDS – ADCIRC - HSPF Simulocean Pydap Visualization with CERA Visualization with SULIS

6. Technical Aspects • Use of Multiple Models • Transferring Large Text Files • Processes are in series, output of one model is the input of the next model • Scale and time issues

7. WRTDS – Weighted Regressions in Time Discharge and Season HSPF – Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran V. Alarcon, J. Cartwright, W. McAnally Geosystems Research Institute and Northern Gulf Institute Maestre, A. Ward, D. Williamson Civil Engineering and Biological Sciences EPA - STORET USGS - NWIS Data Graber / WUDEXT (Simulobot --> Future) Land Use Datasets Seamless DEM Concentrations WinHSPF WRTDS Output: Water Discharge Output: Nutrient Fluxes

8. ADCIRC - The ADvancedCIRCulation model C. Kaiser, K. Hu Center for Computation and Technology HURRICANE DANNY 1997 HURRICANE IVAN 2004 Slow Hurricane Fast Hurricane ADCIRC Output: Water Elevation in the Gulf of Mexico

9. EFDC – Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code EFDC – Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code K. Park Marine Sciences K. Park, A. Maestre, J. Cartwright Water Discharge EFDC Nutrient Fluxes (Total Nitrogen) Gulf Water Elevation Output: Nutrient Distribution after a Slow and Fast Hurricane

10. River discharge (QR) & TN load Information needed for EFDC simulation IC for S (cold start for η & u) Wind Open BC for η and S

11. Water and Nutrient Discharge into Mobile Bay Ivan (2004) Danny (1997) landfall at 01:00 on 9/16 near Gulf Shores, AL landfall at 04:00 on /19 near Fort Morgan, AL Peaks in QR and TN load associated with Ivan No peaks in QR and TN load associated with Danny

12. Wind Fields input into EFDC Max wind = 32.3 m sec-1 Max wind = 32.7 m sec-1

13. Water level in Mobile Bay during Hurricane Events : During equatorial tide : Large surges : During tropic tide : Small surges

14. Points to Consider in Evaluating Hypothesis ● How to evaluate/interpret model and process (precipitation patterns, track, surge, etc…) interactions that control nutrient peak and distribution ● How to make a fair comparison when there was no large surges during Danny? ● How to take into account of large rainfall during Danny (>932 mm on Dauphin Island)? ● Effect of interaction between tides and hurricane landfall time (e.g. during tropic vs. equatorial tide) Things to try: ● Run the model for a relatively long time period : 9/8-9/28 in 2004 for Ivan (landfall on 9/16) :7/11-7/31 in 1997 for Danny (landfall on 7/19) ● Compare two hurricanes in terms of percentage of TN input (?) ● Need to consider introducing a tracer from ocean boundary (?)

15. Outcomes & Future Goals • Created solutions for integrated modeling of hazards across multiple cyber-platforms. • Experiment -- Interaction and collaboration among all NGCHC universities. • Implement results from EFDC in a visualization tool (i.e., Sulis or CERA) • Start the transformation from “loose coupling” to “dynamic coupling” models • Investigate use of the modeling system for further integrated watershed and bay research. • Future proposals to NSF, NOAA, EPA, USACE • Interior flood/surge modeling • Water quality hazards from flooding • Addition of ecosystem models to suite