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Exploring Complex Systems through Games and Computer Models Santa Fe Institute – Project GUTS

Exploring Complex Systems through Games and Computer Models Santa Fe Institute – Project GUTS. http://www.projectguts.org. What is a complex system?. Complex difficult-to-understand or difficult to predict System

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Exploring Complex Systems through Games and Computer Models Santa Fe Institute – Project GUTS

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  1. Exploring Complex Systems through Games and Computer ModelsSanta Fe Institute – Project GUTS http://www.projectguts.org

  2. What is a complex system? Complex difficult-to-understand or difficult to predict System A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent parts forming a whole. So a “Complex System” is collections of simple units or agents interacting in a system. Large-scale behaviors of the system are difficult to understand or difficult to predict and may change, evolve, or adapt. (Also called Complex Adaptive Systems)

  3. Some problems we face Climate change Loss of biodiversity Pollution Civil violenceSpread of disease All of these issues are studied as “complex systems” using computer models.Traffic jams Forest fire evacuationThese local problems can also be studied as complex systems:

  4. How do scientists study complex systems? Scientists recreate complex systems in a "virtual world" on a computer where they are able to run many experiments without impacting the real world.

  5. How do scientists study complex systems?

  6. How do scientists study complex systems?

  7. The Computational Science Process Begin here StarLogo is a tool used to create a Computational Model

  8. Creating Computer Models with StarLogo TNG • Create agents and environment • Give agents and environment simple rules to follow • No sophisticated mathematics or programming required • Explore the behavior of complex systems The Predator, Prey, and Grass Model

  9. Modeling and Computational Science • A model is a representation of the interaction of real-world objects in a complex system. • The goal is to gain an understanding of how the model’s results relate to real-world phenomena. • Random factors built into the model and variables changed by the user cause different results to be generated when the model is run repeatedly.

  10. Model Classification* Increasing complexity and detail • Idea Models • e.g. Model of Predator and Prey • Minimal Models for Systems • e.g. Model of Wolves and Caribou • Systems Models • e.g. Model of every Wolf and Caribou in 5 square mile section of Yellowstone Decreasing generality and applicability *This classification scheme was proposed by J. Roughgarden.

  11. Why wouldn’t you want to run these experiments in real-life?

  12. What are Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems?

  13. Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems Leaderless (aka decentralized)

  14. A classic exampleBirds Flocking

  15. A classic exampleflocking - Craig Reynolds Separation: steer to avoid crowding local flockmates Alignment: steer towards the average heading of local flockmates Cohesion: steer to move toward the average position of local flockmates http://www.red3d.com/cwr/boids/

  16. Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems Emergent patterns develop from the simple interactions of agents

  17. A classic exampleTermites Termites model

  18. Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems Non-linear The sum of the parts is not equal to the whole.

  19. In Mathematics Non-linear means: f(a+b)  f(a) + f(b) Ex.) the exponential function is non-linear. f(2 + 3)  f(2) + f(3) f(5)  f(2) + f(3) 25  4 + 9 *Non-linear systems are systems that cannot be mathematically described as the sum of their components.

  20. Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems Self-organization The system organizes itself.

  21. A classic exampleSchelling Segregation Model Developed by Thomas C. Schelling (Micromotives and Macrobehavior, 1978).

  22. 4 Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems 1. Leaderless there is no leader (boids) 2. Emergent patterns develop from the simple interactions of agents. (termites) 3. Non-linear The sum of the parts does not equal the whole. 4. Self-organization The system organizes itself

  23. Complex System or just Complicated?

  24. Complex System or just Complicated?

  25. Complex System or just Complicated?

  26. Complex System or just Complicated?

  27. Complex System or just Complicated?

  28. Some examples of Complex Adaptive Systems • Global climate patterns • A termite mound • Highway traffic patterns • The spread of a disease in a population • The evolution of ideas in a society • A food web in an ecosystem

  29. The End

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