Epistemology and Methods Foundations: Accumulation of Knowledge, Paradigms, Theories February 24 2009

1. Epistemology and MethodsFoundations: Accumulation of Knowledge, Paradigms, TheoriesFebruary 24 2009

2. Overview • Course Program: 2nd part • Scientific Growth/Accumulation of Knowledge • Paradigms (Geddes) • Varieties in research • The positivist KKV view • The role of theories?

3. Course Program: 2nd part • Foundations, 24 February • RQs, Puzzles, and the Study of Causation, 21 April • Model Building: Concepts, Arguments, Hypotheses, 28 April • Data Selection, Operationalization and Measurement, 5 May • Methods (small and large n-studies, process-tracing, content analysis, survey research, interviews) • Assignment: Research Design Paper, due 9 June.

4. Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper) • Science proceeds by putting forward empirically falsifiable conjectures/theories • These entail observational predictions (“potential falsifiers”) • These can be tested by means of observation and experiment and either falsify or corroborate a theory (“falsification”) • Falsifiability demarcates science from non-science • Scientific theories cannot be verified by experience, but they can be falsified.

5. Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper) • Steps (theory change as revolution in permanence) • Scientists stumble over some empirical problem • A theory is proposed (conjectured) • Theory is tested by attempted refutations • If theory is refuted, new theory is conjectured • If theory is corroborated, then it is tentatively accepted

6. Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper) • The aim of science should be the development of theories with high verisimilitude (likeness to truth) • B is closer to the truth than A and this constitutes progress

7. Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) • Scientists protect the accepted theory, or "paradigm", from refutation for most of the time • They attempt to fit contrary phenomena into the framework of the paradigm. • Only when refutations become overwhelming, does crisis set in • A new paradigm is sought for and found • A revolution occurs, and scientists return to doing "normal science", to the task of reconciling recalcitrant phenomena with the new paradigm.

8. Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) Paradigm Normal Science Puzzle-Solving Anomaly Crisis Revolution New Paradigm

9. Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) • Move from pre-science to science (adoption of a paradigm) • Paradigm: A body of theories, values and methods that are shared • Long period of normal science starts / scientists explore, apply develop and tease out the consequences of the paradigm • Paradigm is not tested (under constant falsification) • It offers guidance to attempt to solve problems (puzzle-solving) • Paradigm expands

10. Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) • Anomaly: persistent problem not be solved by paradigm • Stage of Crises • End of Crises by revolutionary transition (paradigm shift) • Paradigm shift is abrupt, like a social revolution • Incommensurability between competing paradigms (co-existence) • New paradigm with different conceptual framework • A new period of normal science emerges…

11. Accumulation of knowledge (Imre Lakatos) • Lakatos tries to combine Popper’s and Kuhn’s images of science in one model • Methodology of Scientific Research Programme • Lakatos sought to reconcile Popper and Kuhn by arguing that science consists of competing fragments of Kuhnian normal science, or "research programmes", to be assessed, eventually, in terms of their relative empirical success and failure. • Instead of research programmes running in series, one after the other, as Kuhn thought, research programmes run in parallel, in competition • He sees RPs progressing, stagnating and degenerating

12. Paradigms • Barbara Geddes: Paradigms and Sand Castles • Abrupt changes in the Politics of Developing Countries • Democratization process, freer markets, collapse of the Soviet Union • The limited usefulness of old theories in the study of transitions from authoritarianism and change in economic policies • “Like elaborate sand castles paradigms have been built with great effort and attention to theoretical detail, only to be washed away by the tide of the next generation of graduate students, whose research batters at the weak points of existing paradigms until the theoretical edifice crumbles and disappears”

13. Paradigms • Messages: • Inattention to basic issues of research design! • Inability to build, develop and extend old theories (we abandon theories (too) quickly) • Uncritical acceptance of theories without systematic empirical tests • Example: the rise and fall of modernization and dependency theory • “The claim is not that theories/paradigms have been overturned in some unusual way (…), but rather that evidence was available that should have called them into question at the time of their creation”

14. Varieties in research • Epistemology: ideas about how to develop and model knowledge of how the world works • Epistemology is a term derived from Greek, meaning the science of knowledge. The problems here concern not only knowledge and its analysis, but also related notions such as belief, justification, evidence and confirmation

15. Varieties in research • Hard science vs. social sciences • Experiments vs. observation • General laws in social sciences are less certain and object to change…(different life-cycle) • Results of research can change the behavior being studied making the theory less valid (George&Bennett) • Theories that can explain (processes and outcomes), but more difficult to predict….

16. Varieties in research • The positivist vs. post-positivist tradition (the two poles) • Positivist epistemology aim to replicate the methods of the natural sciences by analysing the impact of material forces.. • Post-positivist epistemology rejects the idea that the social world can be studied in an objective and value-free way. It rejects the central ideas of neo-realism/liberalism, such as rational choice theory, on the grounds that the scientific method cannot be applied to the social world and that a 'science' (of IR) is impossible.

17. Varieties in research • The competition/war on methods: quantitative vs. qualitative approaches • Special session (12 May 2009)

18. The positivist KKV view • Focus is on empirical research sidestepping controversies about the role of postmodernism, the nature and existence of truth, relativism, and related subjects. • We assume that it is possible to have some knowledge of the external world but that such knowledge is always uncertain.

19. The positivist KKV view • The importance of research design: • Rules are relevant to all research where the goal is to learn facts about the real world • Social science seeks to arrive at valid inferences by systematic use of well-established procedures of inquiry • Quantitative and qualitative research strategies can be reconciled

20. KKV continues • Defining social research: • The goal is inference (descriptive or explanatory inferences based on empirical information) • Procedures are public (make methods and logics explicit) • Conclusions are uncertain • The content is the method

21. What are theories? • Grand theories/Schools of thought (in international relations: neorealism, neoliberalism, constructivism) • Mid-range theories (e.g. democratic peace, dependency theory) • Research programmes (e.g. rational design of IOs, sozialization of IOs)

22. What are theories? • Theories are general statements that describe and explain the causes or effects of classes of phenomena. They are composed of causal laws or hypotheses, explanations, and antecedent conditions (van Evera 1997:7)

23. What is a good theory? (Van Evera 1997) • has large explanatory power • Importance (Large variance in DV caused by small variance in IV) • Explanatory range (Number of classes of phenomena, e.g. Olson’s logic of collective action) • Applicability (how common is the cause) • is parsimonious (few variables to explain effects) • is “satisfying” (“I didn’t get enough votes”)

24. What is a good theory? (Van Evera 1997) • is clearly framed (importance of explanation) • is falsifiable • explains important phenomena • has prescriptive richness • “Capitalism causes war” • “Teaching chauvinist history in school causes war”