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Professor David Blake Director Pensions Institute Cass Business School d.blake@city.ac.uk

Longevity 5: Fifth International Longevity Risk and Capital Market Solutions Conference (www.longevity-risk.org). Professor David Blake Director Pensions Institute Cass Business School d.blake@city.ac.uk September 2009. Previous conferences. Longevity 1:

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Professor David Blake Director Pensions Institute Cass Business School d.blake@city.ac.uk

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  1. Longevity 5: Fifth International Longevity Risk and Capital Market Solutions Conference(www.longevity-risk.org) Professor David Blake Director Pensions Institute Cass Business School d.blake@city.ac.uk September 2009

  2. Previous conferences • Longevity 1: • Cass Business School, London 2005 • Longevity 2: • Chicago 2006 • Longevity 3: • Taipei 2007 • Longevity 4: • Amsterdam 2008

  3. 26 Core global risks, but longevity risk not included! Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks 2008

  4. Longevity risk is a real, underestimated and slow-burning risk

  5. Cost of longevity risk • Global pension liabilities = $23trn • Roger Lowenstein* in While America Aged (2008) discusses “how pension debts ruined General Motors, stopped the New York subways, bankrupted San Diego, and loom as the next financial crisis” * Author of When Genius Failed

  6. Dealing with longevity risk • Longevity risk needs to be quantified and managed • Tools are now being developed to do both: • In insurance and reinsurance companies • In the capital markets • Academics are also interested in analyzing longevity risk and capital market solutions • But growth has been slowed by the Credit Crunch and the political dimension has been missing

  7. Six longevity swaps in 2008-09

  8. What needs to happen • Continuing with our strategy of bringing together practitioners and academics from a variety of relevant disciplines • Extending our community to include policymakers and their advisers from key countries with extensive longevity risk exposure in both the public and private sectors • These are the aims of Longevity 5 • Longevity 6 will be at UNSW in September 2010

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