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THE LISBON STRATEGY Re-launch or last rites?

THE LISBON STRATEGY Re-launch or last rites?. Iain Begg Visiting Professor, European Institute London School of Economics. LISBON FAULT-LINES. Strategic aims and policy goals valid But shifting priorities undermine consistency Specific objectives more doubtful

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THE LISBON STRATEGY Re-launch or last rites?

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  1. THE LISBON STRATEGYRe-launch or last rites? Iain Begg Visiting Professor, European Institute London School of Economics

  2. LISBON FAULT-LINES • Strategic aims and policy goals valid • But shifting priorities undermine consistency • Specific objectives more doubtful • Few demonstrate case for Community level • Policy instruments have been inadequate • Problems with incentives • Lack of budgetary means at Community level • Action plan fatigue? Target proliferation? • OMC’s shortcomings

  3. THE DELIVERY FAILINGS • The underlying growth rate failure • Debilitating effect on all dimensions of reform • Key targets being quietly shelved • Little sign of advances in R&D or innovation • 2010 employment rate target beyond reach by 2004 • Backsliding on Kyoto aims • Large disparities among the Member States • Leaders: Nordics • Laggards: France, Germany &, especially, Italy

  4. VARYING GEOMETRIES ILisbon 2000 KNOWLEDGE-INTENSITY Competitiveness Economic Reform 2010 Social Cohesion JOBS

  5. VARYING GEOMETRIES IIGothenburg 2001 Competitiveness Sustainable Development LONG-TERM Social Cohesion Environment

  6. VARYING GEOMETRIES IIIRe-launch 2005: curing the sick child GROWTH Jobs Economic & Governance Reforms DEADLINE? Social Cohesion Environment

  7. KOK RECOMMENDATIONS • Focus advocated on five aims: • Advancing the ‘knowledge society’ • Further efforts to complete internal market • More supportive business climate • In particular, curbing obstacles to entrepreneurship • Building an inclusive labour market • Boosting more ‘eco-efficient’ technologies • All to be advanced by National Action Plans • …plus putting the delinquents in the dock

  8. AND THE RE-LAUNCH? • Another accurate diagnosis • Another re-statement of the imperatives • Another obligation to produce action plans • Another commitment to community action • …but scant means • …and even probability of budgetary curbs • A fresh call for MSs to take ‘ownership’ • …but no naming, blaming and shaming

  9. TRAJECTORY OF ECONOMYThe supply-side reform ‘j’-curve Performance With extensive Structural reforms Without major reforms Time

  10. IS THERE A SOLUTION? • Member States do know what’s needed • Overcoming political inertia • Essentially a Member State challenge • Requires a perception of crisis • Community level may now be counter-productive • Macroeconomic dimension cannot be ignored • Review and clarify purpose of co-ordination • In particular: is it genuinely adding value?

  11. ‘The promotion of growth and employment in Europe is the next great European project.’ Kok report, November 2004

  12. THE LISBON STRATEGYRe-launch or last rites? Iain Begg Visiting Professor, European Institute London School of Economics

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