1 / 9

Multi-agent social processes and water demand in southern England

Multi-agent social processes and water demand in southern England. TE Downing With C Warwick SEI Oxford Office S Moss B Edmunds O Barthelemy Centre for Policy Modelling. Two approaches. Scenarios and systems dynamics Stella model of water resource zone (CCDomestic)

manju
Download Presentation

Multi-agent social processes and water demand in southern England

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Multi-agent social processes and water demand in southern England TE Downing With C Warwick SEI Oxford Office S Moss B Edmunds O Barthelemy Centre for Policy Modelling

  2. Two approaches • Scenarios and systems dynamics • Stella model of water resource zone (CCDomestic) • Average demand for population (l/h/d) • Forced by external scenarios of ownership-frequency of use-volume per use (OFV) •  smooth, sylised trends, marginal effect of climate change • Agent-based social simulation • 100 households in social networks • Interactions with technology and policy advice to save water during a drought •  bumpy pathways with discontinuities, wider range of climate change responses For details, see: Downing, TE et al. 2003. Climate change and demand for water. Final report of the CC:DeW Project. Oxford: SEI Oxford Office. www.sei.se/oxford/ccdew/

  3. Foresight Scenarios ConventionalDevelopment

  4. Micro-Component Template

  5. Scenarios and systems dynamics model Stylised reference projections (from EA)External forcing of OFVAggregate behaviour Climate change is added toreference projectionSystem/aggregate behaviour  Smooth trends No surprises or discontinuities  Relatively narrow range of future states Limited factors in (social) construction of risk

  6. PolicyAgent • Ownership • Frequency • Volume Households Ground • Temperature • Rainfall • Sunshine Aggregate Demand ABM Demand structure

  7. Household agents in social networks

  8. ABM: social behaviour and climate change Reference runs MH climate change Individual Social Neighbourhood sourcing: individual=30%, social=80%. All runs: 1973=100. Scenarios broadly correspond to EA reference scenarios: individual (alphaand beta); social (gamma and delta).

  9. Two approaches Compared • Agent based: •  Discontinuities •  Large range of results • Branch points • Technology-climate interactions • Dynamic simulation: • Smooth scenarios • Modest range • Static trends in risks

More Related