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Probability

Probability. What is probability?. Thumbtack Experiment. Consider the following experiment: toss 10 thumbtacks up into the air and let them fall on a flat surface How many would you expect to land with the point straight up?. Thumbtack Experiment. Lets try the experiment

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Probability

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  1. Probability What is probability?

  2. Thumbtack Experiment • Consider the following experiment: toss 10 thumbtacks up into the air and let them fall on a flat surface • How many would you expect to land with the point straight up?

  3. Thumbtack Experiment • Lets try the experiment • Toss 5 thumbtacks up and let them land. • Write down your individual data: how many landed with the point straight up? • Group data

  4. Thumbtack Experiment • Based on our experiment…What is the probability that a randomly chosen thumbtack that is tossed up will land with the point side straight up? • Experimental vs. Theoretical • Is there a way to find the theoretical probability for this experiment?

  5. Dice Experiment • Work with your elbow partner • One person rolls 2 dice • One person tallies the sum of the 2 dice • Record your data on the poster • Histogram

  6. Dice Experiment • Based on our experiment…What is the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is • 2? • 5? • 7? • 11?

  7. Dice Experiment • Experimental vs. Theoretical • Is there a way to find the theoretical probabilities for this experiment? • Equally Likely Outcomes Model • Sample Space of equally likely outcomes

  8. Dice Experiment

  9. Dice Experiment • Compute (theoretical) probabilities • Compare these results to our experimental probabilities

  10. M&M Experiment • Dump out your bag of M&Ms • Consider the experiment: an M&M is randomly selected from your pile of M&Ms • What is the probability of selecting each of the available colors?

  11. M&M Experiment • Compare your results with your table group members • Now compute the probability of selecting each of the available colors for your table group • Record your group data on the poster

  12. M&M Experiment • The theoretical probabilities of obtaining each color from a bag of M&Ms are depicted in the following table: What is the probability of blue?

  13. M&M Experiment • Make a prediction: How many of each color would be likely to be found in a bag of 50? 100? 250? 500? 1000?

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