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The Road Not Taken Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer

The Road Not Taken Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer. Outline. Motivation (Some) current topics NOT addressed here (Some) comments & extensions about topics that HAVE been addressed (Some) future directions and considerations Summary. Motivation. Question: What Road?

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The Road Not Taken Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer

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  1. The Road Not TakenJim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  2. Outline • Motivation • (Some) current topics NOT addressed here • (Some) comments & extensions about topics that HAVE been addressed • (Some) future directions and considerations • Summary JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  3. Motivation • Question: What Road? • Answer: Several: • Some Current applications not covered in Colloquium • Some Extensions and connections of topics covered • Some Future Considerations • Environments, Applications, Implications • This was to be the closing talk – “roll up” • So this might seem out of place JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  4. Topics Not Addressed • Land Data Assimilation • See R. Reichle, http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerColloq.php • GPS Radio Occultation • Refer to talks by J. Derber, L.-P. Riishojgaard, • See L. Cucurullhttp://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerColloq.php • (Note also 2009 GMAO, UKMO DA Summary Talks) ummer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  5. Comments and Extensions JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  6. Data Impact Studies • Multiple Methods • Forecast Sensitivity Diagnostics (FSD; e.g., Adjoints) • Observation System Experiments • Observation System Simulation Experiments • Multiple Applications • Evaluate DA systems/methods • Evaluate OS components • Influence decisions regarding future OS components JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  7. 500 hPa Anomaly Correlations 15 Aug – 30 Sep 2010 (Riishojgaard and Jung, 2012) No Satellite / No Conventional Data Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere 5th WMO Observing Systems Impact Workshop

  8. 500 hPa Day 3 North America Time Series (LPR/JJ) JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  9. Data Impact Studies • Recommendation (Word of Caution): • Avoid Temptation (resist pressure) to map every inch of trade space • Recall JCDSA Mission Statement • Analogy to misuse of statistics • “Statistics are like a street lamp; the wise man uses it for illumination, and the drunk man for support” JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  10. Modeling and DA Constraints JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  11. NOAA’s Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Northern Gulf of Mexico • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled GFSMOM4 NOAH Sea Ice ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Refresh for Aviation 11 11 NOAH Land Surface Model

  12. Computing Capability • Current computers • IBM Power6 • 73.1 trillion calculations/sec • 2 billion observations/day • 27.8 million model fields/day • Primary: Gaithersburg, MD • Backup: Fairmont, WV • Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes • Next generation computer: by Oct 2013 • IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux • 143 trillion calc/sec • Primary: Reston, VA • Backup: Orlando, FL “reliable, timely and accurate” Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2011 2011 Web access to models as they run on the CCS 2001 2005 2009 2007 2003

  13. Operational NWP Models JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  14. The Global Observing System • Evolving in which direction? Consider: • Number of US Operational SC and sensors • Decreasing • Number of Total SC and sensors • Increasing • Number of observations available • Increasing • Quality of observations available • Timeliness (latency) “It’s not having what you want; it’s wanting what you’ve got” JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  15. A word on balance • Environmental Modeling as a three-legged stool: • Observations • Becoming a commodity? • Computational (and communications) capacity • Intellectual • Modeling • Data Assimilation & QC JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  16. Summary • (Satellite) Data Assimilation will grow in importance • More Applications • Increasingly coupled applications • More varied sensors • Part of the most cost-effective component to invest in for improved modeling. JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

  17. Back up slides JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM

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