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A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages: application to the MARS database

A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages: application to the MARS database. Roberto Confalonieri, Fabio Micale, Giampiero Genovese roberto.confalonieri@jrc.it. R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005. MARS-STAT section in EC Context.

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A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages: application to the MARS database

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  1. A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages:application to the MARS database Roberto Confalonieri, Fabio Micale, Giampiero Genoveseroberto.confalonieri@jrc.it R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  2. MARS-STAT section in EC Context European Parliament Council of Ministers Court of Auditors Committee of the Regions EuropeanCommission Economic and Social Committee Court of Justice Commissioner for Research DG RELEX ECHO DG SANCO DG ENTR DG ENV DG RTD DG INFSO DG AGRI DG EUROSTAT JRC EI IES IRMM IPSC IHCP ITU IPTS AGRIFISH Unit (MARS STAT) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  3. Mars Crops YieldForecasting System Meteorological Monitoring Vegetation Monitoring Statistical Scenarios Analysis Crop Model EC crop yield forecasting system R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  4. 3 groups of rice varieties: Japonica type early JE medium late JM Indica type I Calibration of WOFOST for rice.1(Confalonieri and Bocchi, 2005. European Journal of Agronomy. Paper in press) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  5. Calibration of WOFOST for rice.2 Validation results - an example: JE varieties Calibration results – an example: JM varieties R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  6. Calibration of WOFOST for rice.3 High sterility Low sterility Hp: Correspondence of model overestimations and years where high sterility verified R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  7. Calibration of WOFOST for rice.4 After the calibration of crop model parameters, WOFOST was generally able to accurately simulate rice growth and development but for some years,we noticed significant overestimation. During these years, particular meteorological conditions occurred: Cold air irruptionsduring the pre-flowering period R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  8. Cold air irruptions in Northern Italy Although the summer presents typical Mediterranean features, the proximity to the arctic area, may sometimes expose to summer cold air irruptions able to influence the young panicle development The induced spikelet sterility may, in some cases, reach values between 35 - 50% depending on the different varieties sensitivity. They do not cause higher sterility percentages because of their duration: usually no more than 2-3 days R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  9. Cold air irruptions in Northern Italy The last important episode occurred on 12 July 2000minimum air temperature = 7-8°C (sterility = 25-50%) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  10. Cold air irruptions in Northern Italy The frequency is about 1 event every 5-6 years(minimum air temperature during the period 1976-2001) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  11. At the moment, simulation models... Actually crop growth models used for rice simulations do not consider yield losses caused by cold damages during the pre-flowering period and this may lead, in some cases, to enormous yield overestimations. In some years (when particular meteorological conditions occur), models have to be considered inadequate tools. Crop modellers are working to improve the simulation of physiological processes which are already rather well simulated but at the moment they are not including in their models processes which have a big influence on yield and which are still considered unrelated to crop simulators. R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  12. …WARM R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  13. In this presentation • WARM features and peculiarities will be briefly exposed • Simulation of the yield gap caused by cold air irruptions during the pre-flowering period for: • 4 years (1991, 1993, 1994, 2000) • 11 grids (50×50 km) north Italian • Sowing date: 27 April • High sensitive rice variety R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  14. TRIS(floodwater effect on T) The MARS database Crop growth model STEFI(spikelet sterility model) ??? WARM

  15. T.RI.S.(Confalonieri et al., 2005. Ecological Modelling, 183, 269-280) TRIS is a mechanistic model funded on the resolution of the energy balance equation adopting as storage term the heat accumulation into the water. It needs as input only maximum and minimum air daily temperatures. If other data (e.g. global solar radiation) are available, the model can use measured values instead of estimated ones. It computes water temperature and 10 series of air temperatures (one for each 10cm air layer starting from the water surface) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  16. T.RI.S. – some results Surface water temperature for the second decade of May, June, July and August(Opera (MI), 2002) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  17. STE.FI. – a model for spikelet sterility • The model for sterility induced by low temperatures is based on two principles: • daily stress inducing sterility is computed adding hourly differences between a threshold temperature and hourly temperatures simulated by TRIS at the height of the developing panicle • total stress is obtained by adding daily values weighted by a factor (bell factor) which represents the different plant sensitivity during the panicle initiation – heading period R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  18. STE.FI. – a model for spikelet sterility bell factor... hourly stresses R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  19. STE.FI. – the bell factor δ is used to fix the maximum value to 1 γ γ R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  20. CGMS WARM - Results.1(high observed sterility: 1993, 2000) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  21. 1991 1994 CGMS WARM - Results.2(low observed sterility: 1991, 1994) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

  22. Conclusions: The yield gap computed basing on the spikelet sterility and on the influence of floodwater on vertical thermal profile has shown to be a powerful tool for the improvement of the precision of rice yield forecasts All the aspects with a high influence on yield must be taken into account and this is why other modules are currently under development (e.g. for blast) It is necessary that all the developed modules are compatible with the MARS database (only the already available input variable collected at similar spatial scale) R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005

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