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Announcements. Be Familiar with Tunnell Paper Be Familiar with 2003 CEASEFIRE Study Exchange Papers/ give to me Friday Read Pages 138-168. Rational Choice Theory. Rational Choice Theory. Deterrence Theory is Crime or Event Based Rational Choice Theory is based on Economics.

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  1. Announcements • Be Familiar with Tunnell Paper • Be Familiar with 2003 CEASEFIRE Study • Exchange Papers/ give to me Friday • Read Pages 138-168

  2. Rational Choice Theory

  3. Rational Choice Theory • Deterrence Theory is Crime or Event Based • Rational Choice Theory is based on Economics

  4. Rational Choice Theory • Expected Utility, a principal of economic theory • MAXIMIZE PROFITS • MINIMIZE LOSSES

  5. Rational Choice • Beyond Probation • Fear that the Criminal Justice System cannot protect the Public

  6. Rational Choice What affects “expected utility?” 1. Probability of arrest/conviction 2. Severity of punishment 3. “Other variables” a. Income available in legal or illegal activities b. Willingness to commit an illegal act c. Intelligence, age, education, family upbringing….

  7. Rational Choice Rational Calculation of Pleasure vs Pain Do the benefits of this crime outweigh what I am going to get?

  8. In Support of Rational Choice • White Collar Crimes • Criminal Conspiracies

  9. Burglary And Rational Choice • Time of Commission • What Time do Burglars work? • What days? • Where do they work?

  10. Rational Choice Tunnell • Tunnell “ The Motivation to Commit Property Crime” • 53 out of 60, 88% reported that money was the motivating factor • 3 of 60 reported a sense of accomplishment • 2 Reported crime as “sporting” • 2 reported vengeance

  11. Evaluating Rational Choice Empirical Support? Policy Implication?

  12. Rational Choice • Example of factors that explain initial involvement in crime : Background Factors Previous experience Solutions evaluated

  13. Project CEASEFIRE • Study Completed By University of Missori, Kansas • Focused Deterrence

  14. Project CEASEFIRE • 47% Felons Said it Affected Whether they would carry a Gun • 2% Reduction of Gun Crimes by Felons • In Kansas City, Kansas 7% reduction

  15. Routine Activities • A Personal or Property crime Requires • Perpetrator • Victim • Object of property

  16. Routine Activities Variables • Motivated Offenders • Suitable Targets • Capable Guardians

  17. The Criminal Event • Focus on predictors of specific crimes, look at immediate (situational) factors • Area • Easily accessible, few police patrols, low security • Home

  18. Motivated offenders taken for granted Assumption is that they are always present

  19. Lack of Capable Guardianship • Strength in numbers • Protection from police • Less emphasis in this over time • Informal social control • Time spent at home

  20. Suitable Targets • Value ($, ability to fence) • Visibility (sights and sounds) • Accessibility (why autos are victimized) • Weight and Mobility (high tech movement)

  21. Policy Implications • Physical Crime Prevention • Target Hardening • Construction • Strength in Number • Defensible Space • Criminal Hot Spots as convergence of three elements

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