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J Street National Democratic Primary Survey

J Street National Democratic Primary Survey. May 2019. Key Takeaways. The “old playbook” has changed, and Presidential candidates should feel comfortable expressing their support for Israel without feeling the need to voice automatic backing of all Israeli policies.

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J Street National Democratic Primary Survey

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  1. J Street National Democratic Primary Survey May 2019

  2. Key Takeaways • The “old playbook” has changed, and Presidential candidates should feel comfortable expressing their support for Israel without feeling the need to voice automatic backing of all Israeli policies. • Likely voters in the 2020 Democratic Presidential primary support Israel, but hold nuanced views toward Israeli policy and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. • They feel positive about Israel, but negative toward Netanyahu. • They support Israel, but don’t want to undermine the U.S. as a credible broker to achieve peace. • Choosing between the Israelis and the Palestinians is a false dichotomy. • There is strong support for candidates who advocate the U.S. playing a role in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and exerting pressure on both sides to achieve a peace agreement. • Voters want the U.S. to be a fair and impartial broker, and there are downsides to throwing around unconditional support or tax dollars - even to our ally Israel. • BDS is not an issue for Democratic primary voters. But they do oppose penalizing people who boycott Israel. • Calling on the U.S. to re-enter the Iran agreement is an excellent opportunity to tap into Democratic voters’ concerns over Trump in the Middle East.

  3. Methodology • National survey of 800 likely voters in the 2020 Democratic Presidential primary • Conducted May 1-5, 2019 via landlines and cell phones • Margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval

  4. Electorate Overview

  5. Demographic Composition Of The Electorate Age & Education Gender & Race

  6. Political Composition Of The Electorate 2016 Vote Ideology Among the 84% who voted in 2016 primary

  7. Current Horserace: Biden vs. The Field 2020 Democratic Primary Vote

  8. Perspectives on Israel and Middle East Conflict

  9. Voters Pay Attention To The Issue, But Not Very Closely In general, how closely do you follow news about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

  10. Older Voters Pay Much More Attention Than Younger Voters In general, how closely do you follow news about the Israeli Palestinian conflict? Age

  11. Positive Toward Israel But Negative Toward Netanyahu Favorability Among those who follow the Israeli-Palestinian conflict very closely: 53% favorable / 20% unfavorable Among those who follow the Israeli-Palestinian conflict very closely: 17% favorable / 56% unfavorable Benjamin Netanyahu

  12. Completely Compatible To Be Pro-Israel & Critical Of Israeli Govt Policy • Do you think someone can be critical of Israeli government policies and still be pro-Israel? Among those who view Israel positively: 92% Among American Jews (Nov. 2018): 84%

  13. Choosing Between Israelis And Palestinians Is A False Dichotomy • Which candidate would you be most likely to support? A candidate who… • United States should…

  14. Opposition To Unconditional Support For Israeli Policy Or Aid Please tell me whether that description or position makes you more or less likely to support this candidate for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee, or if it makes no difference. A candidate who says the United States should continue financial and military aid to Israel without any restrictions, regardless of whether Israel expands settlements or annexes Palestinian territory. A candidate who says he or she strongly supports Israel, and the United States must stand behind all of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's policies.

  15. Framing On Aid Makes Major Difference Please tell me whether that description or position makes you more or less likely to support this candidate for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee, or if it makes no difference. A candidate who says the United States should continue financial and military aid to Israel without any restrictions, regardless of whether Israel expands settlements or annexes Palestinian territory. A candidate who says the United States should place criteria on how Israel can spend our financial and military aid, and that U.S. dollars cannot be spent on settlement expansion or annexing Palestinian territory.

  16. Support For Active U.S. Role; Exerting Pressure On Both Sides To Reach Peace Please tell me whether that description or position makes you more or less likely to support this candidate for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee, or if it makes no difference. A candidate who says the United States should stop sticking our noses in other countries' business, and we should let the Israelis and Palestinians figure out their problems without us. A candidate who says the U.S. has an important role to play in resolving the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and the next President should exert pressure on both Israelis and Palestinians to make the compromises necessary for a peace agreement.

  17. Less Engagement On Deeper Policy & Bypassing Negotiations To Drive Policy Please tell me whether that description or position makes you more or less likely to support this candidate for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee, or if it makes no difference. A candidate who says Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, and the United States should formally recognize its status regardless of the state of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. A candidate who says the United States should recognize Palestinian statehood now, and let the details on final borders be determined later in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

  18. BDS Movement

  19. BDS Is Unknown And Arouses Little Interest • Based on what you have heard, do you support or oppose the BDS, or Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement against Israel? • How much have you heard about the BDS, or Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement against Israel? Among those who follow news about Israeli-Palestinian conflict: 6% great deal, 7% good amount Darker color = strongly support/oppose

  20. Despite Lack Of BDS Interest, Opposition To Penalizing People Who Boycott Israel • Please tell me which of the following statements comes closer to your own opinion... • We should SUPPORT laws that penalize people who boycott Israel because these laws protect our democratic ally in the Middle East from hostile actors. • We should OPPOSE laws that penalize people who boycott Israel because these laws infringe on the Constitutional right to free speech and peaceful protest. • Support much closer • Oppose much closer • Total support • Total oppose *61% of people who oppose BDS also oppose legislation to penalize people who boycott Israel

  21. Clear Support For Re-Entering Iran Deal • As you may know, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the nuclear agreement that the U.S. made with Iran and 5 other countries. This agreement lifts economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran dismantling its nuclear weapons program and allowing international inspectors to monitor Iran’s facilities. Some people think that we should re-enter the agreement. Do you support or oppose the United States re-entering this agreement? • Strongly support • Strongly oppose • Total support • Total oppose

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