The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “The Endless Summer”

1. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“The Endless Summer” San Francisco, CA September 11, 2013www.madhedgefundtrader.com

2. MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com San FranciscoNovember 1

3. TradeMonster San Francisco ConferenceOctober 25-26 San FranciscoMarriot Marquis Hotel Go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com and register by clicking the InvestMonster box on the right

4. Trade Alert PerformanceStaying On Top *2013 YTD +42.03%, compared to 16%for the Dow, beating it by 26%*September +4.45%*First 126 weeks of Trading +97.1%*Versus +23% for the Dow AverageA 74% outperformance of the index 138 out of 195 closed trades profitable70.8% success rate on closed trades

5. Portfolio Review-Building a larger long“RISK ON” Returns Expiration P&L+45.3% YTD

6. Performance Year to Date +42.03%Finally, a New All Time High!

7. Performance Since Inception+35.3% Average Annualized Return

8. Strategy Outlook *The money won’t wait*We never got the 12% correction, only 7.1%*Taper is priced in*So is Syria, the Bernanke replacement and the coming debt ceiling crisis*It’s off to the races once more with risk assets*Stocks could gain 10% by year end*Bottom fishing begins in commodities and emerging markets*another leg down in the yen is imminent

9. The Jim Parker ViewThe Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1,000 upgradeSummer market still prevails Technical Set Up of the week *Buy Europe good value (EWG), (EWP)Emerging Markets moving (GXG)Short play over in emerging currencies(SPY) trying to break out (IWM) Small caps*Sell ShortYen big time, risk is limited

10. The Economy-Picking Up *August nonfarm payroll 169,000, unemployment rate drops to 7.3%, new recovery low, labor participation rate at 35 year low*August HSBC Services PMI 51.3 to 52.8*August Eurozone PMI 50.5 to 51.5, two year high, Q2 GDP 0.3%*UK August Business Activities Index 60.2 to 60.5, 6.5 year high*GM August sales +14.7%, industry +16 million units 2013*August ISM manufacturing index 55.4 to 55.7, 26 month high*Japan Q2 GDP revised up from 2.7% to 3.8%

11. Weekly Jobless Claims-9,000 jump to 323,000 New 5 Year Low

12. 10 Years of Nonfarm Payrolls

13. Bonds-Bonds rally…or They Rally *Taper is priced in. If you don’t get it bonds rally*If we do get taper it will be “taper light” , $5-$10 billion a month cutback,$75-80 billion a month in Fed bond buying continues. Bonds rally*Real taper killed off by Syria and the August nonfarm payroll*Bonds are only 13 months into a 20 year bear market, so rallies will be brief*Only fixed income value is in MLP’s,where the cash flow is huge

14. Ten Year Treasuries (TLT Yields)

15. 2X Short Treasuries (TBT)

16. Municipal Bonds (MUB)-3% yield,Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds

17. (JNK)-

18. MLP’s (LINE)

19. Stocks *Traders are adding risk, moving from low beta to high beta stocks*Expecting a big post Syria, post taper rally*(SPX) could add a full earnings multiple point by year end, from 15X to 16X, or from 1,630 to 1,780*Bottom fishing starting in emerging markets and commodities*Major institutions and individuals are still generationally underweight equities*are we only half way through an 8year bull market?

20. (SPX)-The 30,000 view

21. S&P 500 (SPX)-5 Week Downtrend Reversal?

22. NASDAQ (QQQ)

23. NASDAQ 100 Advance-Decline Ratio

24. (VIX)-Back to the GraveyardThe spike for the year is in

25. Russell 2000 (IWM)-Leads the Upturn

26. Cycles-Traders Adding Beta

27. Auto Industry

28. Ford Motors (F)

29. Apple (AAPL)-Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

30. Shanghai-Double Bottom in place

31. Shanghai-long term

32. (DXJ)-the only way to play Japan-Nikkei with hedged yen – Olympic Pop

33. Japan Nikkei Index

34. Emerging Markets-Bottom fishing

35. Dollar-The Fall Rally has begun *BOJ unanimously votes to maintain ultra easy monetary policy, maintaining targets of doubling money supply and 2% inflation in two years*Yen losing flight to safety bid as Syria war dissipates, breaking down on all crosses, US $ is next*Conclusion: Yen down*2020 Olympic win crushes the yen*Euro rallies again*Ausie rallies on conservative election win and improving China data

36. Long Dollar Basket (UUP)-up on weak yen, down on strong euro and ausie

37. Euro (FXE)-No Trade

38. Australian Dollar (FXA)-China Bounce plus Conservative election win

39. Japanese Yen (FXY)-Cash market smashes through ¥100major breakdown is imminent

40. Japanese yen positionsRunning a triple position-strong conviction *Long the 9/$103-106 bear put spread*Long the 10/$103-$106 bear put spread*Long the 10/$102-$105 bear put spread

41. (YCS)-For Non Options Players200% Short Yen ETF-head and shoulders top risk

42. Energy-Waiting for the Missiles *Oil has been over $100/barrel since July 4*Wall Street is long 1.9 million contracts in wake of Egypt and Syria Crisis,about a 4 month refinery supply, vastly overextended*This long has pushed cruse to to a $20 premium to actual supply and demand*Risk of a $20 gap down is high*Strongest driving season in 31 years ending*Only Syria is levitating these prices*Obama will move slowly in response

43. Crude-Peace Breaks Out

44. United States Oil Fund (USO)Covered short 2 hours too earlyleft 1.8% on the table

45. Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)

46. Energy Independence Here We Come!

47. Natural Gas-Killed by a Cool summer

48. Copper (CU)-Is the bottom in?China recovery will help

49. Freeport McMoRan (FCX)long the 10/$28-$30 bull call spread

50. Precious Metals-Stalling again as peace breaks out * Russian peace offer kills the flight to safety trade*Gold miners (GDX) outperforming metal for the first time in 8 years*Big hedge funds switching out of gold and into gold miners*Industry hedging at all time low*A BUY setting up at the 50 daymoving average