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December 12, 2012

President’s Vision. Strategy. Timely Goal. December 12, 2012. Small Modular Reactors, National Security and Clean Energy: A U.S. National Leadership Strategy. Outline Energy as U.S. “Sputnik Moment” Sputnik/Apollo as Strategic Planning Model

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December 12, 2012

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  1. President’s Vision Strategy Timely Goal December 12, 2012 Small Modular Reactors, National Security and Clean Energy: A U.S. National Leadership Strategy • Outline • Energy as U.S. “Sputnik Moment” • Sputnik/Apollo as Strategic Planning Model • Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (Lessons Learned) • Small Modular Reactors (SMR) • A U.S. SMR Leadership Strategy • Summary (SEAB SMR Subcommittee Report) Victor H. Reis Senior Advisor U.S. Department of Energy

  2. Secretary Chu at National Press Club

  3. President Obama State of the Union January 25, 2011 Newton Lavoisier “Half a century ago, when the Soviets beat us into space with the launch of a satellite called Sputnik, we had no idea how we would beat them to the moon. The science wasn't even there yet. NASA didn't exist. But after investing in better research and education, we didn't just surpass the Soviets; we unleashed a wave of innovation that created new industries and millions of new jobs. This is our generation's Sputnik moment.” “Some folks want wind and solar. Others want nuclear, clean coal and natural gas. To meet this goal, we will need them all -- and I urge Democrats and Republicans to work together to make it happen.” “We're telling America's scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we'll fund the Apollo Projects of our time.”

  4. Sputnik & Apollo: A Strategic Planning Perspective President’s Vision Strategy Timely Goal Bay of Pigs Invasion April 17, 1961 A Cold War Strategy Oct 4, 1957 Юрий Гагарин April 12, 1961 July 20 1969 Feb 1958 Focus & Align 2X$ July 29,1958 First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth. May 25, 1961

  5. Civil Nuclear Power Leadership: Global Nuclear Energy Partnership: GNEP President’s Vision Strategy Timely Goal ….my Administration has announced a bold new proposal called the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership. Under this partnership, America will work with nations that have advanced civilian nuclear energy programs, such as France, Japan, and Russia. Together, we will develop and deploy innovative, advanced reactors and new methods to recycle spent nuclear fuel. National Security (non-proliferation) Leadership President Bush Feb 18, 2006 • Not Aligned: • U.S. Utilities • U.S. Spent Fuel Policy Advanced Reactors/Fuel Cycle Global Partnership ?

  6. What Happened to GNEP? Current Reprocess LWR Large Future (Fast) Recycle Systems Interim Storage SMR Fuel Bank “Take Back” Yucca Mountain Overseas Reactors

  7. President’s Vision Strategy Timely Goal Small Modular Reactors, National Security and Clean Energy: A U.S. National Leadership Strategy When we enhance nuclear security, we’re in a stronger position to harness safe, clean nuclear energy.  When we develop new, safer approaches to nuclear energy, we reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism and proliferation.  President Obama 3/26/2012 HankukUniv Develop a U.S. SMR Industry; Aligned with U.S. Utilities • Clean Energy • Nonproliferation

  8. Secretary Chu’s Description of SMR • “one of the most promising areas is small modular reactors (SMRs). If we can develop this technology in the U.S. and build these reactors with American workers, we will have a key competitive edge. Small modular reactors would be less than one-third the size of current plants. They have compact designs and could be made in factories and transported to sites by truck or rail. SMRs would be ready to "plug and play" upon arrival. • If commercially successful, SMRs would significantly expand the options for nuclear power and its applications. Their small size makes them suitable to small electric grids so they are a good option for locations that cannot accommodate large-scale plants. The modular construction process would make them more affordable by reducing capital costs and construction times. • Their size would also increase flexibility for utilities since they could add units as demand changes, or use them for on-site replacement of aging fossil fuel plants. Some of the designs for SMRs use little or no water for cooling, which would reduce their environmental impact.” Steven Chu, Wall Street Journal, March 23, 2010 • U.S. Competitiveness • Affordability • Flexibility • Market • Retiring Coal Plants Develop a U.S. SMR industry! • How many SMR? • How fast? • Role of Government Clean Energy Nonproliferation

  9. Conventional vs Small Modular Reactor Westinghouse AP1000 Nuclear Steam Supply System 25 Westinghouse SMR Containment Vessels fit into single AP1000 Containment Vessel Westinghouse SMR Integral Nuclear Steam Supply System

  10. Innovation in Small Modular Nuclear Reactors: LWR Examples 45 MW Jose Reyes Selected for DOE Cost Share 11/20/2012 180 MW AP 1000 • All • PWR Design • Commercial LEU Fuel • U.S. Industrial Base • Affordable to more utilities Proliferation Safeguards 225 MW 140 MW

  11. Innovation, Safety and Small Modular Reactors • Earthquakes and Floods • Deeply embedded reactor building limits motion and dissipates energy • “Water tight” – separated, waterproof reactor compartments • Loss of Offsite Power • Passively safe – AC power NOT required for safety functions • Defense-in-depth – 2 backup D/Gs for grid independent AC power • Station Blackout • Long-duration “station keeping” – 7-14 day battery supply for plant monitoring/control • APU back-up – APUs inside reactor building recharge battery systems • Natural Convection Cooling • Seismically Robust • Simple & Small • Defense in Depth Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) ~ 10-8 /year

  12. SMR Market: Replacing Retiring Coal Plants Operating Commercial Coal Plants in 2008 • Older coal plants tend to be least efficient and have the highest GhG emissions • Virtually all plants greater than 50 years old have capacities less than 300 MWe • Retiring all plants >50 yrs old displaces 50 GWe • Retiring all plants >40 yrs old displaces 120 GWe Source: Energy Information Administration

  13. Current Ownership of Publically Listed U.S. Nuclear Power Reactors Not a good impedance match between utilities financial structure and new large reactor’s cost. ( Affordability $10B vs $1B) #195 on 2012 Fortune 500 list EDF 62,400 58

  14. U.S. SMR Timely Goal Clean Energy: “ By 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources” 2011 State of the Union National Security (Nonproliferation): “First, and for the first time, preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism is now at the top of America’s nuclear agenda, which affirms the central importance of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ” Nuclear Posture Review 2010 U.S. Leadership in International Regime to Control Material & Technology U.S. maintain market share of civil global nuclear power (~30%) IAEA, NSG, IFNEC, 123 agreements , etc. Fuel Leasing Regime

  15. Assume U.S. requires 30% of World Nuclear Energy to Influence Non Proliferation World 30% World But: • Current U.S. Nuclear Plants will be retiring • Nuclear Replacement of U.S. Nuclear Plants Uncertain • High Upfront Nuclear Costs (Affordability) • Utility Risk • Natural Gas alternative (Hydraulic Fracturing) • Fukushima(?)

  16. U.S Maintain 30% of World Nuclear Power Maintain 30% of World Nuke 120 GW ~ 10 GW/yr U.S. Nuke Power (GW) Projection of New U.S Large Reactors Current U.S. Nuke Plants (60 year life) Current U.S. Nuke Plants (60 year life) World Nuke Power 30 GW/yr Year

  17. Clean Energy Climate Change The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic By RICHARD A. MULLER July 28, 2012 “And unless we free ourselves from a dependence on these fossil fuels and chart a new course on energy in this country, we are condemning future generations to global catastrophe.”Senator Obama April 2006 And yes, my plan will continue to reduce the carbon pollution that is heating our planet – because climate change is not a hoax. President Obama Democratic National Convention September 2012

  18. Meeting Administration’s 2035 80% Clean Energy Standard 15% Efficiency improvement No new Coal, Coal >50 years out Renew & CCS ~ met Assume: Weighted Emission Standards: Coal= 1, Gas = 0.5, CCS =0.1 CO2 (Gton) 1.85 0 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.04 2.3 CO2 (Gton) 2.1 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 2.6 CO2 (Gton) 0.3 0.02 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 Elect (TWh) 1800 0 785 800 0 250 130 40 3800 Elect (TWh) 300 200 1000 480 970 250 800 0 4000 Elect (TWh) 2100 0 1030 870 0 250 320 0 4570 Source Coal Coal (CCS) Natural Gas Nuclear (Large) Nuclear (SMR) Hydro Renewable Petroleum TOTAL 120 GW of SMR EIA Reference Projections 2035 CE=43% 2010 U.S Electricity Consumption and CO2 Emissions. EIA CE=42% Assumed 2035 electricity to meet 80%“clean energy”

  19. A U.S. SMR Leadership Strategy President’s Vision Strategy Timely Goal “When we enhance nuclear security, we’re in a stronger position to harness safe, clean nuclear energy.  When we develop new, safer approaches to nuclear energy, we reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism and proliferation. ” “They have compact designs and could be made in factories and transported to sites by truck or rail. The modular construction process would make them more affordable by reducing capital costs and construction times. “ John Rowe CEO Exelon Align U.S. national and commercial interests Provide enough U.S Government assistance to make SMR economically competitive with natural gas for U.S. electricity producers . 2035 • Non proliferation: • ~ U.S. 30% of World Nuke “Nuclear is a Business – Not a Religion” • Clean Energy: • 80% U.S. Electricity Talk to American Nuclear Society November 2011 ~ 120 GW of U.S. SMR by 2035

  20. Obama Administration & SMR FY 2012 Budget Small Modular Reactor Licensing Technical Support. -The conference agreement includes$67,000,000 to provide licensing and first-of-a-kind engineering support for small modular reactor designs that can be deployed expeditiously, to be administered as specified in the budgetrequest. The Department is directed to consider applications utilizing any small modular reactor technologies. The conferees expect the program to total $452,000,000 over five years. “And with rising oil prices and a warming climate, nuclear energy will only become more important.  That’s why, in the United States, we’ve restarted our nuclear industry as part of a comprehensive strategy to develop every energy source.  We supported the first new nuclear power plant in three decades. We’re investing in innovative technologies so we can build the next generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants.” “We can build the next-generation nuclear reactors that are smaller and safer, cleaner and cheaper.” Ohio State Univ., March 22, 2012 As part of the Obama Administration’s all-of-the-above strategy to deploy every available source of American energy, the Energy Department today announced an award to support a new project to design, license and help commercialize small modular reactors (SMR) in the United States. November 20,2012 3/26/2012 HankukUniv

  21. Tools for U.S. Government SMR Assistance Tools for this Strategy • Small Modular Reactor Technical Support Program (5 year/$452M) • Augment Small Modular Reactor Technical Support Program • Cost share design costs beyond licensing ( 5 year/$500M) (5 year /$1B) • Loan Guarantees ( $18.5B nuclear, $107B total) • Tax Credits for Clean Energy ($22/MWh for renewable) • Carbon Tax or Cap & Trade Carbon Emissions • Offset Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) for early SMR users • Build SMR Demonstration Plants ~ 2GW (2035)

  22. Estimate of Government Offset Cost for SMR PPA SMR FOAK COST Ci = CFOAKxNi(ln(learning)/ln2) Learning Curve, Levelized Cost (C) ($/MWh) Cost gov~ Area x P x Duration PPA Area Natural Gas Target Cost Number of SMR Manufactured (N) SMR FOAK = 100 $/MWh NG Target = $60 $/MWh Learn = 90%, [N=20] Power = 100 MW PPA = 10 year Total Government Offset Cost ~ $1.5 B

  23. A U.S. SMR Leadership Strategy “When we enhance nuclear security, we’re in a stronger position to harness safe, clean nuclear energy.  When we develop new, safer approaches to nuclear energy, we reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism and proliferation. ” 2035 Timely Goal Proliferation Safeguards • Non proliferation: • ~ U.S. 30% of World Nuke • Clean Energy: • 80% U.S. Electricity President’s Vision Strategy $2B Cost Share $2B PPA U.S. SMR~ 120 GW by 2035 U.S. SMR U.S Power Co’s U.S.SMR Industry U.S. Industrial Base ~ 2GW (2035)

  24. Summary SMALL MODULAR REACTOR SUBCOMMITEE OF THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY ADVISORY BOARD N. Augustine J. Baker F. Beineke A. Carnesale B. DeMars J .Deutch N. Donofrio (Chair) A .Kadak W. Madia R. Meserve B. Richter Final Report Conclusions: November 16, 2012 1) A U.S. industry building and deploying to U.S. electricity suppliers light water, low enriched uranium fueled SMRs holds considerable promise of establishing the U.S. as a global leader of civil nuclear technology, directly supporting many of the nation’s high priority clean energy, national security and economic competitive goals. 2) Establishing such an SMR industry is a long-term endeavor and would likely require continued sustained U.S. government support going beyond the current Small Modular Reactor Licensing Technical Support Program through the first-of-a-kind cost-recovery phase. $4B over 20 years 3) The Subcommittee recommends that the Secretary of Energy charter an integrated government SMR strategy ....many uncertainties surrounding the commercialization of SMRS. President’s Vision 120 GW by 2035 Strategy Timely Goal

  25. Completing the Eisenhower - “Atoms for Peace” Vision Nuclear Power “The United States knows that peaceful power from atomic energy is no dream of the future. That capability, already proved, is here--now--today. Who can doubt, if the entire body of the world's scientists and engineers had adequate amounts of fissionable material with which to test and develop their ideas, that this capability would rapidly be transformed into universal, efficient, and economic usage.” President Eisenhower, United Nations December 1953 Final Statement “To the making of these fateful decisions, the United States pledges before you – and therefore before the world – its determination to help solve the fearful atomic dilemma –to devote its entire heart and mind to find the way by which the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life.”

  26. U.S Leadership: Obama - “Atoms for Peace & Prosperity” Nuclear Power “We must harness the power of nuclear energy on behalf of our efforts to combat climate change, and to advance peace opportunity for all people.” President Obama Prague, April 2009 Final Statement “Human destiny will be what we make of it. And here in Prague, let us honor our past by reaching for a better future. Let us bridge our divisions, build upon our hopes, and accept our responsibility to leave this world more prosperous and more peaceful than we found it.”

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