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“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity”

“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity”. Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University & NASA Goddard Inst. For Space Studies 2880 Broadway New York, NY 10025. New York Bight Sub-Regional Meeting May 13, 2008.

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“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity”

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  1. “NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity” Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University & NASA Goddard Inst. For Space Studies 2880 Broadway New York, NY 10025 New York Bight Sub-Regional Meeting May 13, 2008

  2. Skating in Central Park 1890

  3. Typical End-Winter View of Central Park Lake Dakota Building

  4. NYC’s Heat Burden Past, Present and Projected: Columbia University & GISS GW GW = Global Warming UHI = urban heat island ~7oC / 13oF GW UHI UHI UHI 2oC 1900 2000 2080 7 days above 90oF 14 days above 90oF 3-4 days above 95oF Most of Summer above 90oF 17-50 days above 95oF

  5. “Very Wet” Days (~2 inches) Very wet days occur ~25% more often in the 2050s, and 50% more often in the 2080s Source: CCSR

  6. Projected Change In NYC Area Sea Level (Extremely Conservative on Greenland & Antarctica)

  7. Former “Urban Dispersion Program” “Met Net”

  8. New Columbia University “Green Met Net” – 4 nodes as May 2008 Bronx Morningside Heights LI City Flushing

  9. Benefits to the people of NYC from MetNet Data • Emergency-response planning: for accidental or terrorist releases • Weather forecasts of precipitation, sea breeze movement, thunderstorm activity, etc. • Climate-change evaluation & planning: risk deter-mination & mitigation strategies • Ozone and PM/aerosol forecasts & prevention • Human-health impacts from heat, cold, & poor air quality • Energy planning based on local urban heat island variations & of potential new sources (e.g., wind, solar)

  10. Requirements of a NYC MetNet • Measurements in real-time • Permanent and expandable facility • Secure two-way data-flow communications • Quality-assured data • Permanent data-archive • Secure-access to archive • Transparent graphical user-interface developed with end-user input • Dynamic-forecasts for emergency-response • A decision support facility

  11. Potential Stakeholders • City of New York: OEM (Fire, Police), DEP, Dept. of Health, et al. • New York State: DEC • Federal: NOAA/NWS, EPA, FAA • Businesscommunity sectors

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