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California Regulations to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles

Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Stakeholder Meeting. California Regulations to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles. Charles M. Shulock California Air Resources Board April 28, 2005. Clear Public Support for Action.

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California Regulations to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles

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  1. Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Stakeholder Meeting California Regulations to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles Charles M. Shulock California Air Resources Board April 28, 2005

  2. Clear Public Supportfor Action “What about the state law that requires all automakers to further reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from new cars in California by 2009? Do you support or oppose this law?” • 2004: 81% support • 2003: 80% support • 2002: 81% support

  3. AB 1493 Requirements • Adopt regulations by January 1, 2005 • Maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions • Regulations may not take effect prior to January 1, 2006 (legislative review) • Regulations apply to 2009 and later model years

  4. Strong Technical Basis for Regulation • International Vehicle Technology Symposium • Comprehensive technical and economic studies • Technology evaluation by auto industry consultants • Economic modeling by UC professors • Independent academic peer review

  5. Extensive Public Process • September 26, 2002 Board Meeting • December 3, 2002 Workshop (Emission Inventory) • March 11-13, 2003 Vehicle Technology Symposium • September 18, 2003 Workshop (Standards, Economics) • October 14, 2003 Workshop (Alternative Compliance) • November 20, 2003 Board Meeting • February 18, 2004 Workshop (Environmental Justice) • April 20, 2004 Workshop (Technology Assessment) • July 6, 2004 Workshop (Environmental Justice) • July 7, 2004 Workshop (Draft Staff Report) • July 8, 2004 Workshop (Environmental Justice) • July 13, 2004 Workshop (Environmental Justice) • September 23-24, 2004 Board Meeting

  6. Vehicle GHG Sources CO2 Methane Nitrous Oxide HFCs CO2 Transmission Engine A/C compressor

  7. Available Technologies (Near-Term) • Variable valve timing and lift • Turbocharging • Cylinder deactivation • Improved multi-speed transmissions • Electric power steering • Improved alternator • Gasoline direct injection • More efficient, low-leak air conditioning

  8. Automated Manual Transmission Cylinder Deactivation Available Technologies 6%* 2005 Chrysler 300C Hemi 7% Audi TT 3.2 V6 *% CO2 reduction, large car

  9. Available Technologies Acura RSX Honda Accord Variable valve timing and lift 4% Toyota Matrix

  10. BMW Valvetronic (continuously variable valve timing and lift) Available Technologies Gasoline Direct Injection w/dual cam phasers 5% 2005 Audi A4 6% 8% Volvo S60 BMW 5 Series Turbocharger

  11. Emerging Technologies (Mid-Term) • Integrated starter/generator • Camless valve actuation • Gasoline homogeneous charge compression ignition • More efficient, low-leak R-152a air conditioning system

  12. Camless Valve Actuation Emerging Technologies 4% Integrated Starter/Generator 2005 Chevrolet Silverado 6% 16% Homogeneous Combustion Compression Ignition

  13. Fleet Average Emission Standards ~22% reduction in 2012 ~30% reduction in 2016

  14. Standards Designed So All Models Can Comply • Standards set to be feasible for manufacturer with heaviest fleet • Ensures all manufacturers can comply without altering their fleet mix • Even the largest SUVs able to comply • Consumer choice maintained • All models remain available to consumers

  15. Regulation ReducesClimate Change Emissions

  16. Average Price Increase of New Low GHG Vehicles

  17. Net Savings for Consumer (Passenger Cars and Small Trucks)

  18. Economic Impacts • More jobs (+53,000 in 2020) • Higher personal income (+$4.8 billion) • Increase in number of businesses • Positive effect on minority and low income communities

  19. Supplemental Analysis (Other Possible Impacts) • Potential effects • Fleet turnover (impact on sales) • Rebound(impact on miles driven) • Not part of traditional analysis • Developed California-specific tools • Bottom line--effects are small

  20. Issue--Estimated Costs and Benefits • Industry typically overstates cost • Industry estimates rely on weight reduction (expensive) • Lower cost technologies not used • ARB benefits assume gasoline @ $1.74

  21. Automaker’s 1994 Analysis of CA LEV I Standards Automaker’s estimates were 4-6x too high Source: NRDC

  22. Consistent Pattern of Overestimation Source: NRDC

  23. Issue--GHG Impact of Regulation • California regulation alone will not solve problem, but… • Proposal provides net benefit • California not acting in isolation • Other jurisdictions follow California lead • California doing its fair share

  24. Issue--Model Availability • Standard can be met by all manufacturers while maintaining today’s fleet • Speed, power, towing capacity-- same as 2009 baseline • Requires improved technology, not different vehicles

  25. Current Status • Rulemaking • Responding to comments • Staff document (Final Statement of Reasons) to be submitted to Office of Administrative Law • Litigation • Federal court • State court

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