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Some Long Range Forecasts

Some Long Range Forecasts. Anthony R. Lupo Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences 302 E ABNR University of Missouri – Columbia Columbia, MO 65211. Winter 2007-2008 (Mid MO).

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Some Long Range Forecasts

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  1. Some Long Range Forecasts Anthony R. Lupo Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences 302 E ABNR University of Missouri – Columbia Columbia, MO 65211

  2. Winter 2007-2008 (Mid MO) • Predictions were for a warmer than normal winter, and a little wetter than normal precipitation and near normal snow. • We (our research group) forecast similar conditions based on La Nina conditions. • So far, we’re above normal (not by much), a bit wet with normal snow. A decent forecast on our part.

  3. Spring 2008 • Spring Temps – March April May

  4. Spring 2008 • Spring Precipitation: March April May

  5. Summer 2008 • CPC Summer temps - JJA

  6. Summer 2008 • CPC Summer Precipitation

  7. Forecast Performance

  8. Forecast Scheme

  9. Summer 2008 • CPC forecast is for a normal – to – warm summer, with the inference that later summer will be warmer. No precipitation forecast.

  10. Our forecast – Summer 2008 • Warmer than normal, with warmer temps later. • Drier than normal amounts of precipitation, but likely a long dry period sometime in July - August period. • Reasoning: We are in a La Nina pattern, prolonged La Nina patterns bring us dry weather, but if we trend toward Neutral conditions things may not be too bad. This is based on Missouri past and analogues.

  11. National drought map

  12. CoCoRaHs • Please consider joining CoCoRaHs. This data will be used by agencies to decide crop loss information. It’s worth it to you to join. • http://www.cocorahs.org

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