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Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the Yakima Riv

Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the Yakima River Basin. Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research Physiologist USGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory Cook, Washington. Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima River Basin .

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Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the Yakima Riv

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  1. Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the Yakima River Basin. Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research PhysiologistUSGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research LaboratoryCook, Washington

  2. Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima River Basin Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic analyses Alec Maule – Project Manager DeWayne Cecil – Chief Science Applications, Climate Change Mark Mastin & Frank Voss (WaWSC) - Physical models Jim Hatten & Tom Batt – Habitat criteria, GIS, DSS Matt Mesa & Jill Hardiman – Bioenergetics Pat Connolly & Russ Perry – Fish pop analyses, Cohort survival Jessica Montag (Ft Collins, CO) — Sociologist Lynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) – Economist Chris Lynch, (BOR-Yakima)-Water management (RiverWare) David Graves — Tributary Water Temps Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission

  3. Yakima River Eastern Washington State 6200 mi² 100 in / yr 6 in / yr

  4. Climate Change in the Yakima Change Scenarios Mastin 2008 Base 1981 -2005 Early 2020-2030 Mid 20402050 Watershed Model Bureau of Reclamation RiverWare Hydrodynamic Model Temperature Model GIS Modeling Habitat maps Habitat DSS Bovee et al. 2008

  5. Global Climate Change Decision Support System Change Scenarios Bioenergetics Model Base 1988 -2006 Early 2020-2030 Mid 20402050 Growth, Development Migration, Reproduction Watershed Model Cohort Survival Model (Population) RiverWare Interactions (Community) Hydrodynamic Model Temperature Models GIS Modeling Social & Economic Analyses Habitat maps Habitat DSS

  6. Decision Analysis (DA) Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic Analyses DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants • Results: • Shifted species of concern -- steelhead • Added temp modeling tributaries & lower river • Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission • Developed a conceptual model of Yakima Basin Irrigation Districts Local elected officials Fed, State & Tribal F &W Fed & State Water Managers

  7. Stakeholders’ Workshop Conceptual Model

  8. Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin

  9. Changes in Habitat Area by Reach Sunnyside Diversion Dam Gap Wapato

  10. Gap Wapato Baseline & Future Hydrographs Coho salmon fry rearing Baseflow

  11. Baseline vs. Future Habitat Estimates Coho Fry Habitat (hectares) Gap Wapato Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Flows – decreasing; Lower in Wapato, Higher in Gap Habitat based on water velocity and depth per Bovee et al. (2008)

  12. Decrease in flows; flow higher in Gap, lower in Wapato Sensitivity Analysis Gap Wapato Current Regulation Current Regulation “Flip-Flop” Water Flows “Flip-Flop” Water Flows Different Geomorphology

  13. Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic Analyses Chapters Intro, Stakeholders’ workshop and conceptual model Mainstem temperature modeling Tributary temperature modeling Temperature and bioenergetics of juvenile steelhead and Chinook salmon Hydrograph and available species- & life-stage-specific habitat Estimating the effects of CC on the social & economic life of the Yakama Tribe

  14. Where a River Takes You: Climate Change Effects on Social Values of Tribal Aquatic Systems Jessica M Montag, Ph.D. Ft Collins Science Center Katie Swan, Intern Yakama Nation

  15. Tribal Well-Being

  16. Tribal Well-Being

  17. Questions?

  18. Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin

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