Pulong Saliksikan on “Basic Climatology Concepts and Data” April 21, 2005 Philippine Institute for Development Studies

1. Pulong Saliksikan on “Basic Climatology Concepts and Data” April 21, 2005 Philippine Institute for Development Studies NEDA-Makati Bldg., Amorsolo St., Legaspi Vill., Makati City Weather Situation and Outlook Hannagrace F. Cristi Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch PAGASA

2. Climate Prediction and Monitoring Center (CLIMPC) Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch, PAGASA • SERVICES/COMMITMENTS • Continuous monitoring of weather and climate of the Philippines • Collection and application of various global indicators • Preparation and issuance of CLIMPC products • Maintenance of historical and present records • Resource speaker on scientific briefings/interviews

3. Climate Prediction and Monitoring Center • PRODUCTS • Monthly Weather Situation & Outlook • Seasonal Climate Outlook • Drought / La Niña Advisories • Press Releases • Specialized climate forecast tailor-made for • clients specifications • CLIENTS / USERS • General Public • Tri-Media (Radio, Television and Print) • Water, Agriculture, Health and Tourism Sectors • Civic and Building Design Contractors

4. DATA BASES HISTORICAL NORMALS EPISODIC EVENTS ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES AND PROCEDURES NEAR REAL-TIME METEOROLOGICAL DATA INFORMATION FROM OTHER SOURCES CLIMATE UPDATES AND FORECASTS/DROUGHT ADVISORIES/POTENTIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT END USERS 1. Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crisis Management 2. National Disaster Coordinating Council 3. Inter-Agency Technical Working Group on Cereals and Feed Grains 4. El Niño / La Niña Task Force 5. Media 6. General Public and other End-Users Schematic Diagram of CLIMPC

5. CLIMPC PRODUCTS

6. Weather Situation • Condition of the CEEP • Weather Systems • RR distribution • Prevailing average maximum and minimum temperature Weather Outlook • Forecast on the following: • Weather Systems and no. of tropical cyclones • Rainfall and temperature ranges on major areas Weather Situation and Outlook

7. Monthly Rainfall Analyses (Attachment)

8. Cumulative Rainfall During the Passage of Tropical Cyclone (Attachment)

9. Maximum Temperature (Attachment)

10. Minimum Temperature (Attachment)

11. Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2005

12. Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2005

13. Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2005

14. PRESS RELEASE Quezon City, July 31, 2002 EL NIÑO ADVISORY Strong indications of warm episode (El Niño) continue to manifest as sea surface temperature anomalies for June 2002 increased to greater than 1°C throughout the equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperature anomalies also increased throughout the central and east-central Pacific. Moreover, the Southern Oscillation Index has been consistently negative and low-level equatorial easterly winds have gradually weakened over the central Pacific. During this month, most parts of the country received near normal to above normal rainfall attributed to the presence of tropical cyclones while Isabela, central Visayas and Mindanao except Misamis Oriental experienced below normal rainfall conditions.  Most coupled model and statistical model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the end of 2002 and into the early part of 2003. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the forecasts about the timing and intensity of the peak of the warm episode, all of the forecasts indicate that it will be much weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño. Thus, a possibility of normal to above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country for the next two months. However, below normal rainfall is likely in Ilocos provinces and Cordillera region in August and in southern Leyte and northern Mindanao during the month of September. Forecasts indicate that in the last quarter of the year, many parts of the country will experience negative departure from normal rainfall condition especially in southern Tagalog, central Visayas and northern Mindanao. PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day rainfall / weather conditions, the large scale climatic patterns affecting the Philippines and will release updates on the existing El Niño phenomenon from advanced global climate prediction centers. Meanwhile, all concerned government agencies are advised to continue to take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of this El Niño event on Philippine agriculture, water resources, hydro power generation, health and sanitation and other sectors. LEONCIO A. AMADORE Director Issued by: National ENSO Early Warning & Monitoring Center Website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab Press Release

15. Drought Advisory

16. La Niña Update Moderate cold episode (La Niña) conditions continued in the central and eastern tropical Pacific during January. Above normal rainfall with values more than 200% during the first month was experienced in large portion of the country. Only western section of Luzon was observed to experience below normal rainfall. The rainfall –causing weather phenomena that persisted and affected the country during the period were the tail-end of cold front, the intertropical covergence zone (ITCZ), the enhanced northeast monsoon, and the passage of tropical depression “Auring” (January 6-7). Analyses of seasonal rainfall covering the period October 1998 to January 1999 showed that major parts of the archipelago continued to have near normal to above normal rainfall conditions. Positive rainfall departures from normal of more than 600 millimeters were observed over Benguet, Quezon, Mindoro, Camarines provinces, Albay, Sorsogon and Catanduanes. The current oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific together with the latest statistical and dynamical model predictions, indicate persistence of cold episode. These conditions and based on the manifestations of the past La Niña episodes in the country, wetter than normal weather condition is still expected especially over the eastern section of the country although tropical cyclone formation within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in February is unlikely. PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day rainfall/weather conditions and large scale climatic patterns that affect the country. Meanwhile, all concerned agencies are advised to take appropriate measures to mitigate potential adverse impacts of the La Niña-related climatic conditions in the country. The next La Niña Update will be issued on the first week of March 1999. Issued by: National ENSO Early Warning & Monitoring Center Website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab

17. Date: May 29, 2002 ONSET OF THE RAINY SEASON The development of the so called monsoon trough and the occurrence of tropical cyclone “Hagibis” during the second half of May 2002 at the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility triggered the start of the southwest wind flow over the South China Sea and most parts of the Visayas and Luzon. Associated with the persistence of this southwesterly wind flow are development of rainfall-causing convective cloud systems such as thunderstorms which served as the precursor of possible start of rainy season. In May 28, a tropical depression “Dagul” was formed over the South China Sea, thus reinforcing the actual onset of the rainy season from May 26-31. The usual start of the South China Sea summer monsoon during the last 50 years occurs from May 16-20. Large-scale rainfall-causing systems such as a tropical cyclone and the intertropical convergence zone will however be modulated by the North Pacific high pressure area therefore some breaks in the rain period could still be expected before the peak of the rainy season which usually occurs in July. The rainy season will start receding towards the ends of August. A tendency for an early termination of the southwest monsoon season may be expected by the second half of September.   LEONCIO A. AMADORE Director Issued by: National ENSO Early Warning & Monitoring Center Website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab Press Release

18. Maraming Salamat Po !

19. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by August 16, 2002 • There is greater than a 95% probability that current conditions represent the early stage of an El Niño event that will persist through the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003. • The strength of the El Niño is expected to be significantly less than the 1997-98 event, and will most likely be weak to moderate by comparison. • The associated climate effects are expected to be generally weaker than those associated with the 1997-98 El Niño but may nonetheless be substantial in some areas. Climate Prediction CenterNational Centers for Environmental PredictionNOAA/National Weather ServiceCamp Springs, MD 20746-4304e-mail: vernon.kousky@noaa.gov

20. Location of Niño Regions

21. NINO 1+2 0-10S 90W-80W NINO 3 5N-5S 150W-90W NINO 3.4 5N-5S 170W-120W NINO 4 5N-5S 160E-150W N. ATL 5N-20N 60W-30W S. ATL 0-20S 30W-10E TROPICS 10N-10S 0W-360W JUl 02 -0.8 21.0 0.5 26.0 0.9 28.0 0.9 29.5 -0.1 26.9 -0.1 23.6 0.3 27.7 JUN 02 -0.4 22.7 0.7 27.1 0.9 28.4 1.0 29.6 -0.2 26.5 0.1 24.9 0.4 28.2 MAY 02 0.5 24.8 0.2 27.2 0.4 28.2 0.8 29.5 -0.1 26.2 0.4 26.4 0.3 28.7 APR 02 1.1 26.5 0.2 27.6 0.3 27.9 0.7 29.1 0.2 26.0 0.3 27.1 0.3 28.8 MAR 02 1.1 27.5 0.1 27.2 0.2 27.3 0.6 28.7 0.5 25.9 0.1 27.0 0.3 28.4 FEB 02 0.0 26.1 -0.2 26.2 0.3 27.0 0.8 28.8 0.5 25.9 -0.3 26.1 0.2 27.9 JAN 02 -0.9 23.6 -0.5 25.1 0.0 26.5 0.7 28.8 0.7 26.5 -0.2 25.3 0.2 27.7 TABLE T2 - Mean and anomalous sea surface temperature (°C) for the most recent 12 months. Anomalies are departures from the 1971-2000 adjusted OI climatology (Smith and Reynolds 1998, J. Climate, 11, 3320-3323). DEC 01 -0.9 22.0 -0.5 24.6 -0.3 26.2 0.3 28.6 0.7 27.3 -0.2 24.4 0.1 27.6 NOV 01 -1.2 20.5 -0.6 24.4 -0.1 26.5 0.6 29.0 0.6 28.0 0.0 23.9 0.1 27.6 OCT 01 -1.4 19.5 -0.5 24.5 0.0 26.6 0.6 29.0 0.2 28.1 0.0 23.3 0.2 27.5 SEP 01 -1.1 19.4 -0.6 24.3 -0.1 26.6 0.7 29.1 0.4 28.3 -0.1 22.8 0.2 27.3 AUG 01 -0.9 19.9 -0.2 24.7 0.2 26.9 0.5 29.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 23.0 0.1 27.2

22. Forecast Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

23. MONTH SLP ANOMALIES TAHITI minus DARWIN SOI 850-hPa ZONAL WIND INDEX 200-hPa WIND INDEX OLR INDEX TAHITI DARWIN 5N-5S 135E-180 5N-5S 175W-140W 5N-5S 135W-120W 5N-5S 165W-110W 5N-5S 160E-160W JUL 02 0.6 1.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 0.5 JUN 02 -0.3 0.8 -0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.7 MAY 02 -0.7 1.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 APR 02 0.0 0.6 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 MAR 02 0.3 1.7 -0.9 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.2 -0.7 FEB 02 1.6 0.2 0.9 -0.6 0.5 -0.6 2.3 -1.1 JAN 02 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 -0.6 1.0 0.2 DEC 01 -1.4 0.4 -1.2 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 0.8 -1.5 NOV 01 0.8 -0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.1 OCT 01 -1.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.2 SEP 01 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.6 AUG 01 -0.8 0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 -0.2 Atmospheric index values for the most recent 12 months. Indices are standardized by the mean annual standard deviation except for the Tahiti and Darwin SLP anomalies which are in hPa. Note that positive (negative) values of the 200-hPa zonal wind index imply westerly (easterly) anomalies; positive (negative) values of 850-hPa zonal wind indices imply easterly (westerly) anomalies.

24. Surface Isobaric Analysis

25. Surface Streamline Analysis

26. Satellite Image with Isobaric Analysis

27. Methodologies and Procedure Local and Synoptic Systems Rainfall Analysis Temperature Analysis Global Numerical Model DRAFT Revision End-users/planners W/ corrections Forum discussion & consultation No Correction Final Output

28. Min Temp = 23.3ºC Calapan Station Rainfall = 14.4 mm Coded Messages of the observed weather elements from the different PAGASA synoptic stations

29. Isohyetal Analysis

30. Information From Other Sources • El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion • Forecast SST Anomalies • Climate Prediction Center, National Center for Environmental Prediction (CPC/NCEP) • Climate Monitoring Bulletin • Australia Bureau of Meteorology • El Niño Outlook • WMO/International Research Institute (IRI)

31. Near Real-Time Meteorological Data • Rainfall • Pressure • Temperatures (Max/Min) • Surface Wind Velocity • Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) • Sea Surface Temperature (SST) • Zonal Wind (Lower and Upper Levels) • Tropical Cyclone

32. Min Temp = 23.3ºC Calapan Station Rainfall = 14.4 mm Coded Messages of the observed weather elements from the different PAGASA synoptic stations

33. PERCENTAGERAINFALL CONDITION < 40% way below normal 41% - 80% below normal 81% - 120% near normal > 120 % above normal Percent of Normal Interpretationfor Monthly Rainfall