Regional Approaches to Risk Management

1. Regional Approaches to Risk Management Roger N. Jones Living with our Changing Climate IOCI Seminar and Workshop 16 August 2005

2. Moving from the tactical to strategic management of climate

3. Socio-economic system Climate system Impacted activity Current climate Current adaptations Future climate Future adaptations Linking climate to adaptation over time

4. Risk is a measure of the changing ability to cope • Assess current climate risks • Climate variability • How have people learnt to cope? • Assess future climate risks • Changing climate hazards • Response between climate change and socio-economic change • Estimating exposure to risks within relevant planning horizons • Building on historical capacity and developing new capacities

5. Scoping phase If not already established, work with stakeholders to develop conceptual model of system What is the relationship between the hazard, the impact and vulnerability? Is there a point (linked to climate) where the the system ceases to operate in the way you would like? – critical threshold

6. Selecting a method

7. Characterisation ofhazards Sector Climate H azards Rainfall amount and variability, flood, drought Water Flood, drought, cool/hot extremes, Agriculture Storms, hail, humidity Hot/wet conditions, temperature Health extremes, violent storms, floods, crop and water shortages Storm surges, wind/wave climates, Coasts pressure extremes, tidal extremes Fire, flood, drought, storms Biodiversity

8. Climate records Streamflow records Operational records Storage records What’s my baseline – water resources

9. Abrupt shifts in Australian rainfall1890–1990

10. Future climate - no adaptation

11. Policy Horizon Future climate with adaptation

12. Planning horizons

13. Average uncertainty

14. P and Ep change over Australia(per degree global warming)

15. P and Ep changes for north-western Australia Change per degree global warming

16. P and Ep changes for south-western Australia Change per degree global warming

17. Hydrological sensitivity and runoff co-efficient

18. Simple model of mean flow changes in 2030 – preliminary results

19. Demand change Critical threshold Supply change  System vulnerability (supply & demand) • Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use, fire) • Level of utilisation • Demand projections Current management Marginal planned change Substantial change

20. Mitigative capacity ← Assess risk No adaptation Manage risk Mitigation Critical risk Autonomous adaptation Adaptation →Adaptive capacity Danger Coping range Autonomous adaptation Improve technology access Institutional reform Improved equity Access to information Build social capital Access to wealth creation Adapting (generic) Mainstreaming adaptation Natural resource management New technology Disaster planning Retrofit existing structures Build resilience/resistance Adapting (specific) Replace activity Abandon activity Transform activity Adapting (transformative)

21. Natural hazard-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • What risks may we face under this projected scenario(s)? • Analyse possible outcomes from a given climate hazard(s) ± other drivers of change • An understanding of current/future climate-related risks • Exploratory scenarios of climate with other biophysical and socio-economic conditions • Probabilities of hazard constrained • Main drivers known • Chain of consequences understood • P(Hazard) × Consequences • Largely exploratory 

22. Vulnerability-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • What is the risk of a specific place, process, group or activity being harmed? • Determine the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance • Understanding of exposure to harm and harmful processes • Characterisation of socio-economic outcomes; can use climate scenarios or diagnose exposure through inverse methods • Probabilities of hazard not constrained • Many drivers resulting in vulnerability • Multiple pathways and feedbacks • P(Vulnerability)/Hazard (e.g. critical threshold exceedance) • Largely normative

23. Resilience-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • What advantages can we gain by better understanding of our current/future capacities? • Assess ability to withstand shocks, recover from setbacks and manage change. • Better knowledge of coping mechanisms and socio-political institutions, barriers to adaptation, increased benefits • Baseline adaptation, adaptation analogues from history, other locations other activities • Impacts and/or vulnerability understood • Evidence of successful adaptation • Benefits thought to be likely • Barriers to adaptation recognised • Risks that require treatment

24. Policy-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • How will our current plans for the future be affected by climate change? • Assess the efficacy of an existing or proposed policy under climate change • Fitter policy under climate change • Unmanaged climate change impacts and vulnerability • Policy aims are sensitive to climate change • Desire to “mainstream” adaptation