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Effect of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States

Effect of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States. Shiliang Wu, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Eric Leibensperger, David Rind (GISS), David Streets (ANL) Harvard University Oct. 12, 2007. work supported by the EPA-STAR program. GISS GCM 3

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Effect of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States

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  1. Effect of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States Shiliang Wu, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Eric Leibensperger,David Rind (GISS), David Streets (ANL) Harvard University Oct. 12, 2007 work supported by the EPA-STAR program

  2. GISS GCM 3 23 vertical layers extending to 85 km Horizontal resolution of 4º x 5º GEOS-Chem detailed ozone-NOx-VOC-aerosol chemistry Anthropogenic emissions (IPCC A1B scenario) Radiative forcing GHG Air pollutants & their precursors Natural emissions Chemistry, transport, deposition, etc Climate Change Models and future scenario GCAP (Global Change and Air Pollution) model

  3. +300% +800% Global changes in anthropogenic emissions Trends of NOx emissions from fuel use (2050 / 2000) (IPCC A1B scenario) 4 2 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 -40% +90% Global total NOx emissions: + 90%

  4. A1B 2000-2050 changes in climate Temperature: 2050 – 2000 Humidity: 2050 / 2000 Annual mean surface temperature +1.6 K

  5. (annual zonal mean) Effects of 2000-2050 global change on tropospheric ozone 2000 2050 climate / 2000 +1.6% 2050 / 2000 2050 emission / 2000 +17% +18%

  6. Effects of 2000-2050 global change on tropospheric ozone (annual surface afternoon mean) 2050 climate – 2000 2000 2050 emission – 2000 2050 – 2000

  7. Policy relevant background (PRB) ozone (summer afternoon)

  8. Effects of 2000-2050 global change on U.S. ozone air quality Daily max 8h-avg ozone averaged over JJA (ppb) 2000 2050 climate – 2000 Increase of summer max-8h-avg ozone by 1-5 ppb in large areas of U.S. due to 2000-2050 climate change. 2050 – 2000 2050 emission – 2000 Less effects in western U.S. because (1) increase of ozone from intercontinental transport and (2) anthro. emissions are low there.

  9. Changes in summertime air pollution meteorology due to climate change Convective mass flux (2050 - 2000) Surface temperature (2050 – 2000) oC 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 [g/m2/s] Soil moisture (2050 / 2000) Mixing depth (2050 / 2000)

  10. 1999-2001 2049-2051 What’s more: decrease of cyclone frequency Summertime cyclones decrease by 17% in the 2050 climate Eric M. Leibensperger, Harvard

  11. Max. 8-hr-avg ozone Cumulative probability (%) Cumulative probability (%) Midwest Northeast Southeast Cumulative probability (%) Cumulative probability distributions of max 8-hr ozone (JJA) climate change has more effect on the pollution events than on the means Max. 8-hr-avg ozone 2000 conditions 2050 climate 2050 emissions 2050 climate & emis Northeast Midwest 99th percentile median Cumulative probability (%) Max. 8-hr-avg ozone Southeast

  12. Cumulative probability (%) Why climate change has the most effects on pollution events? Max. 8-hr-avg ozone 2000s conditions 2050s climate 2050s emissions 2050s climate & emis Daily maximum temperature (K) 99th percentile median Midwest Cumulative probability (%)

  13. Mitigation of climate change penalty by reductions in anthropogenic emissions “climate change penalty” for ozone AQ = Δ[O3] from climate change Change of summer 90th percentile max-8h O3 due to climate change (a) 2000 emissions (b) 2050 emissions Reductions of anthropogenic emissions significantly mitigate the “climate penalty” and can even turn it into a “climate benefit” in the Southeast and Northwest.

  14. NOx emission - 40% (2050 climate) 2000 conditions NOx emission - 40% (2000 climate) NOx emissions - 50% (2050 climate) Translating climate change penalty to emission control efforts 2000–2050 climate change implies an additional 25% effort in NOx emission controls to achieve the same ozone air quality.

  15. Conclusions Climate change is expected to worsen the U.S. ozone air quality; the summer average daily max-8h ozone is projected to increase by 2-5 ppb over large areas due to 2000-2050 climate change with the IPCC A1B scenario. Climate change has most effects on air pollution episodes than on the means; it increases the 90th percentile ozone by up to 10 ppb. The 2000-2050 changes in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors outside of North America would increase the mean summer PRB ozone by 3-6 ppb in the western United States, and by 2-3 ppb in the East. Factors causing worse ozone air quality associated with the future climate include: higher temperature, less convection, lower mixing depth, higher natural emissions as well as less frequent cyclones. Preliminary analysis suggests that the climate change penalty corresponds to a need for some 10% further reductions in NOx emissions to meet our goals for clean air. Emission reductions can greatly mitigate the “climate change penalty” for ozone air quality, and can even turn it into a “climate benefit”.

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