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The practical politics of “Planetary Boundaries” Commentary on a presentation by John Foley

The practical politics of “Planetary Boundaries” Commentary on a presentation by John Foley. Bill Clark Harvard Kennedy School of Government October 27, 2009. Historically, goals matter… But differently at different stages of policy cycle. Early: Move issues from technical to policy arena

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The practical politics of “Planetary Boundaries” Commentary on a presentation by John Foley

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  1. The practical politics of “Planetary Boundaries” Commentary on a presentation by John Foley Bill Clark Harvard Kennedy School of Government October 27, 2009

  2. Historically, goals matter…But differently at different stages of policy cycle • Early: Move issues from technical to policy arena • Effective when simple, blunt, achievable (eg. ‘cut CFC production by 30%; Toronto 20% club on CO2’) • Not tied to debatable analysis of options, costs, benefits • Galvanize and frame subsequent policy debate… • But sometimes prove too “sticky,” (eg. SOx 10Mt) • Later: Provide science-grounded, detailed framework for management • Eg. critical loads on SOx, London amendments CFCs • Works only for risks already seen as serious by public, otherwise the details become distractions, foster delay • So, simple goals like “boundaries” a good idea

  3. Achievability is key to effectiveness of “early” goals in stimulating policy Map “control variables” defining boundaries on ‘causal chain of environmental hazard’ CHANGES IN VALUED ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS (1) CHANGES IN VALUED ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS (2) Δ CO2 Δ CFCs Δ N2 Δ Particulates Δ forest Δ bluewater [CO2] [CFCs] [N..] [Particulates] % cropland Δ species Δ W/m2, ΔT [O3] Dead zones Climate imp Cancer Fish kill Bad health Biodiv / ES? Biodiv / ES? Biodiv / ES? Energy Manufacture Food

  4. Achievability is key to effectiveness of “early” goals in stimulating policy Map “control variables” defining boundaries on ‘causal chain of environmental hazard’ CHANGES IN VALUED ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS (1) CHANGES IN VALUED ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS (2) Δ CO2 Δ CFCs Δ N2 Δ Particulates Δ forest Δ bluewater [CO2] [CFCs] [N..] [Particulates] % cropland Δ species Δ W/m2, ΔT [O3] Dead zones Climate imp Cancer Fish kill Bad health Biodiv / ES? Biodiv / ES? Biodiv / ES? • Focus on “control variables” we can actually control… • Start now on crucial task of “slowing down”, rather than inviting debate on exactly where the hairpin is, and how long the plunge will be… Energy Manufacture Food

  5. “Sustainability” can’t be an add-on to biophysical boundaries • “Edge of the cliff” is property of nature, but… • “Dangerous curve! Slow to 20 mph” makes sense only as joint function of physical landscape, human goals, & current activities used to achieve them (Traveling by car, bike, horse?) • Politically viable “operating space for humanity” needs to be balancing of benefits/risks for how to use nature to promote (sustainable) development • Alternative to goal of choices that “stay within biophysical boundaries” is thus goal of choices that “increase ‘inclusive wealth’ (f [human, natural capital]), sensu Arrow (includes thresholds).

  6. Picking the right scale… • The trade-offs properly involved in deciding how “fast” to drive through the “operating space for humanity” generally place / context dependent, not global… • Related policy choices have best chance of successful implementation when made at scales appropriate to the problem. • Need “subsidiarity principle” for goals/boundaries • Some global (climate, stratospheric ozone, ocean pH) • Most regional to local (aerosol, N, water, land change)

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