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The 2008 Presidential Primaries:

The 2008 Presidential Primaries:. How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determined Who Won. The 2008 Presidential Primaries:. Or, How Richard J. Daley nominated Obama and McCain. How it used to work. National nominating conventions Selection of delegates controlled by party officials

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The 2008 Presidential Primaries:

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  1. The 2008 Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, andWeird Rules Determined Who Won

  2. The 2008 Presidential Primaries: Or, How Richard J. Daley nominated Obama and McCain

  3. How it used to work • National nominating conventions • Selection of delegates controlled by party officials • Many / most delegates uncommitted

  4. Example. 1960 • Kennedy vs. Nixon • To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win • Entered West Virginia primary election • “Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

  5. Before 1972 • Most states did not have public primary or caucus • In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters • By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention

  6. Today Primaries or Caucuses • Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate). • Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

  7. The Demise of Nominating Conventions • Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes) • Gave “too much” control to party leaders • Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

  8. Chicago, 1968 • Incumbent President was LB Johnson • Vietnam War in 4th year: • Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968 • New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 • McCarthy 42% • LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but.... • RFK enters race days latter • G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3rd Party

  9. Chicago, 1968 • LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 • Vice President HHH says he’ll run • Primaries & Delegates prior to convention: • RFK won 4 258 delegates • McCarthy won 5 393 delegates • HHH didn't run 561 delegates

  10. Chicago 1968 • RFK assassinated June 1968 • Convention in August: video here removed

  11. Chicago, 1968 • Democratic Convention Vote: HHH 1759 McCarthy 601 McGovern 146 Philips 67 Moore 17

  12. After Chicago • Democrats split, lose to Nixon • Rule of ‘party bosses’ challenged by McCarthy, McGovern • Reform commission established • State laws changed

  13. Post 1968 Reforms • New Nomination Rules: • most delegates must be selected by voters • but how? • caucuses with open participation • primaries, with candidates on ballot • Proportionality (Democrats) • maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

  14. Post 1968 reforms • What is a political party? • voters? • elected officials? • elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

  15. Since 1972 • National parties kept tinkering with rules: • how award state’s delegates? • winner take all? • proportional to voter support? • PLEOS? • who can participate • only registered partisans? • independents • what schedule, when start? • March, then February, then January...

  16. 1972 - 2008 • The Carter Model, 1976 • outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment • Gary Hart ‘84; John McCain 2000 • The Mondale/Clinton Model, 1984 • Super-delegates (PLEOs) • from 75% voter selected to 54% • Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

  17. Frontloading

  18. 1976: 12 weeks to complete 50% 2008: 4 weeks to complete 50%

  19. Differences Dems vs. Republicans • Schedules • Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun • Proportionality • A Democratic thing; GOP winner take all • Super Delegates • A Democratic thing • Republicans more predictable • Democrats = chaos

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