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How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral T

How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral Trajectories. John M. Bolland Bradley E. Lian. Support. 1. NICHD (HD 30060) 2. CSAT/SAMHSA (TI 13340) 3. NIDA (DA 017428) 4. CDC (CE 000191)

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How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral T

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  1. How Early Is Early?Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral Trajectories John M. Bolland Bradley E. Lian

  2. Support 1. NICHD (HD 30060) 2. CSAT/SAMHSA (TI 13340) 3. NIDA (DA 017428) 4. CDC (CE 000191) 5. Mobile, Alabama Housing Board 6. City of Mobile, Alabama 7. City of Prichard, Alabama

  3. Mobile Youth Survey • Begun in 1998; 11 waves of data • Low income, African American neighborhoods • 1990 poverty rate = 73% • 1990 median household income = $5,190 • Multiple cohort, longitudinal study of adolescent risk • Adolescents aged 9.75 - 18.25

  4. MYS Data1998-2005 N = 7,085 18,360 total interviews 1,774 – 2,635 annual interviews 1,187 respondents with 5+ waves of data Response rate = .73 - .78 Followup rate = .82

  5. The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings Prevalence × Age Risk Behavior Relative Risk Age Period Data Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.00 12-14 lifetime Add Health Alcohol consumption .85 16-18 30 days YRBS Marijuana use 2.11 - 2.81 12-14 lifetime Add Health Marijuana use 1.01 16-18 30 days YRBS Sexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.27 12-14 lifetime Add Health Sexual intercourse 1.25 16-18 30 days YRBS

  6. The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings Prevalence × Age Risk Behavior Relative Risk Age Period Data Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.00 12-14 lifetime Add Health Alcohol consumption .85 16-18 30 days YRBS Marijuana use 2.11 - 2.81 12-14 lifetime Add Health Marijuana use 1.01 16-18 30 days YRBS Sexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.27 12-14 lifetime Add Health Sexual intercourse 1.25 16-18 30 days YRBS Weapon carrying 1.39 16-18 30 days YRBS Gun carrying 1.86 16-18 30 days YRBS Pulling a weapon 5.32 - 6.95 12-18 lifetime Add Health Weapon use 12.80 - 23.66 12-18 lifetime Add Health

  7. MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories Yij = [β00 + β10ageij] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij] Where μ0j ≈ N(0, τ),rij ≈ N(0, σ2)

  8. MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories Yij = [β00 + β10ageij] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij] Yij = [β00 + β10ageij + β01icij + β11(icij × ageij)] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij] Where μ0j ≈ N(0, τ),rij ≈ N(0, σ2)

  9. Alcohol Use b se Intercept 1.38 .03 Age (lin) .26 .01 Age (quad) .01 .003 Gender -.13 .04 Age (lin) × Gender -.13 .01 Age (quad) × Gender -.03 .004

  10. Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

  11. Household Instability:Mother Mother Figure Birth Mother 67.0% - 74.7% Grandmother 12.0% - 16.4% No One 1.4% - 3.2% Annual Change 25.0% – 34.8%

  12. Household Instability:Father Father Figure Biological Father 44.8% - 47.7% Stepfather 14.4% - 16.4% Grandfather 6.7% - 8.5% No One 10.9% - 13.6% Annual Change 43.9% – 49.8%

  13. Alcohol Use b se No father figure (NFF) .27 .16 Early initiation (EI) .38 .10 Age (lin) × NFF .36 .13 Age (quad) × NFF .08 .03 Age (lin) × EI .21 .06 Age (quad) × EI .13 .02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.51 .19 Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.17 .05

  14. Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

  15. Alcohol Use b se b se No father figure (NFF) .27 .16 .29 .17 Early initiation (EI) .38 .10 .38 .10 Age (lin) × NFF .36 .13 .37 .13 Age (quad) × NFF .08 .03 .07 .03 Age (lin) × EI .21 .06 .20 .07 Age (quad) × EI .13 .02 .13 .02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.51 .19 -.52 .19 Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.17 .05 -.17 .05 NFF* .10 .07

  16. Alcohol Use b se Biological father (BFF) -.27 .09 Early initiation (EI) .43 .10 Age (lin) × BFF -.03 .07 Age (quad) × BFF .01 .02 Age (lin) × EI .01 .06 Age (quad) × EI .07 .02 Age (lin) × BFF × EI .31 .11 Age (quad) × BFF × EI .08 .03

  17. Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

  18. Alcohol Use b se Biological father (BFF) -.27 .09 -.14 .10 Early initiation (EI) .43 .10 .32 .10 Age (lin) × BFF -.03 .07 -.04 .08 Age (quad) × BFF .01 .02 .005 .02 Age (lin) × EI .01 .06 .04 .10 Age (quad) × EI .07 .02 .10 .03 Age (lin) × BFF × EI .31 .11 .16 .12 Age (quad) × BFF × EI .08 .03 .03 .03 BFF* -.11 .05

  19. Marijuana Use b se Intercept 1.13 .03 Age (lin) .30 .01 Age (quad) .02 .002 Gender -.30 .04 Age (lin) × Gender -.14 .01 Age (quad) × Gender -.02 .003

  20. Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

  21. Marijuana Use b se No father figure (NFF) .13 .18 Early initiation (EI) .43 .14 Age (lin) × NFF .24 .11 Age (quad) × NFF .06 .03 Age (lin) × EI .20 .08 Age (quad) × EI .05 .02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.17 .29 Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.04 .08

  22. Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

  23. Marijuana Use b se b se No father figure (NFF) .13 .18 .15 .18 Early initiation (EI) .43 .14 .44 .14 Age (lin) × NFF .24 .11 .23 .12 Age (quad) × NFF .06 .03 .05 .03 Age (lin) × EI .20 .08 .20 .08 Age (quad) × EI .05 .02 .05 .02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.17 .29 -.04 .30 Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.04 .08 -.004 .08 NFF* .13 .06

  24. Marijuana Use b se Biological father (BFF) -.17 .10 Early initiation (EI) .43 .13 Age (lin) × BFF .04 .06 Age (quad) × BFF .02 .01 Age (lin) × EI .29 .11 Age (quad) × EI .07 .03 Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.19 .13 Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.05 .04

  25. Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

  26. Marijuana Use b se b se Biological father (BFF) -.17 .10 -.12 .10 Early initiation (EI) .43 .13 .41 .14 Age (lin) × BFF .04 .06 .03 .07 Age (quad) × BFF .02 .01 .02 .02 Age (lin) × EI .29 .11 .46 .12 Age (quad) × EI .07 .03 .12 .03 Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.19 .13 -.28 .14 Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.05 .04 -.08 .04 BFF* -.11 .04

  27. Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

  28. Fighting b se Intercept 2.02 .03 Age (lin) -.07 .01 Age (quad) .003 .002 Gender -.41 .04 Age (lin) × Gender -.007 .01 Age (quad) × Gender -.01 .004

  29. Fighting: Frequency and Recency

  30. Fighting: Frequency and Recency

  31. Fighting: Frequency and Recency

  32. Weapon Carrying b se Intercept 1.87 .04 Age (lin) .15 .01 Age (quad) -.01 .004 Gender -.46 .06 Age (lin) × Gender -.05 .02 Age (quad) × Gender -.02 .01

  33. Weapon Carrying: Frequency and Recency

  34. Weapon Carrying b se No father figure (NFF) .64 .25 Early initiation (EI) .55 .15 Age (lin) × NFF .002 .20 Age (quad) × NFF -.04 .05 Age (lin) × EI .34 .10 Age (quad) × EI .22 .03 Age (lin) × NFF × EI .76 .31 Age (quad) × NFF × EI .18 .09

  35. Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

  36. Weapon Carrying b se Biological father (BFF) -.22 .14 Early initiation (EA) .57 .14 Age (lin) × BFF .10 .12 Age (quad) × BFF .04 .03 Age (lin) × EA .63 .14 Age (quad) × EA .32 .04 Age (lin) × BFF × EA -.40 .31 Age (quad) × BFF × EA -.14 .05

  37. Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

  38. Weapon Brandishment b se Intercept .58 .02 Age (lin) .08 .01 Gender -.14 .03 Age (lin) × Gender -.02 .01

  39. Weapon Brandishment: Frequency and Recency

  40. Weapon Brandishment b se No father figure (NFF) .21 .13 Early initiation (EI) .30 .09 Age (lin) × NFF .05 .09 Age (quad) × NFF -.00 .02 Age (lin) × EI .18 .06 Age (quad) × EI .11 .02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI .57 .21 Age (quad) × NFF × EI .11 .06

  41. Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

  42. Weapon Carrying b se Biological father (BFF) -.06 .07 Early initiation (EI) .34 .09 Age (lin) × BFF .05 .05 Age (quad) × BFF .02 .01 Age (lin) × EI .18 .09 Age (quad) × EI .11 .02 Age (lin) × BFF × EI .04 .10 Age (quad) × BFF × EI .002 .03

  43. Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

  44. Weapon Use b se Intercept .36 .01 Age (lin) .05 .004 Age (quad) -.00 .001 Gender -.15 .02 Age (lin) × Gender -.04 .01 Age (quad) × Gender -.003 .001

  45. Weapon Use: Frequency and Recency

  46. Weapon Use b se No father figure (NFF) .06 .07 Early initiation (EI) .17 .05 Age (lin) × NFF .07 .04 Age (quad) × NFF .01 .01 Age (lin) × EI .22 .03 Age (quad) × EI .10 .01 Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.04 .15 Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.02 .04

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