Climate Changes Everything

1. Climate Changes Everything Dianne Saxe SaxeFacts. com Municipal Waste Association May 29, 2019

2. Overview • Climate changes everything • Ontario was doing so much right • Not any more • What about waste? ECO reports Get them at saxefacts.com

3. 1. Climate changes everything

4. Climate change is here.It affects us now. Much worse is ahead. We’re determining the future now.

5. Who does 2100 matter to?

6. Canada warming faster than global average • 1.5oC warmer since 1948 • 2.5oC to 3.7oC warmer by 2050 • Differs by region • latitude, topography, water… • Local impacts differ Source: LAMPS Climate Change Group, Ontario Frost Free Season Changes Analysis.

7. Precipitation: winter Average change per decade 1979-2016 • Source: Prepared by LAMPS York University.

8. 4 x climate extremes Source: Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Executive Summary

9. When not if: floods, fire, drought, wind, heat Photo credit: Ottawa Paramedics Photo credit: Associated Press Photo credit: Ryan Forbes Photo credit: OPP North East Photo credit: Viv Lynch. Used under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Photo credit: The Canadian Press

10. Health impacts Ontario Lyme Disease Risk Map 2018: Estimated Risk Areas Source: Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion (Public Health Ontario)

11. Insured losses (plus…) $1.3 billion in 2018 Source: IBC Facts Book, PCS, CatIQ, Swiss Re, Munich Re & Deloitte. Loss & Adj Expenses. Values in 2017 $.

12. Up to 10% of Canadian properties may soon be too high risk for private sector flood insurance, if no protective measures are taken.

13. 20th Century “normal” is gone Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Change – Global Temperature

14. No “new normal” in sight 415.70 ppmon May 15, 2019 The first month >410 was April 2018

15. The last time CO2 reached 365 - 415 ppm? • Pliocene, 3 to 5 million years ago • Temp. 3 to 4 ºC higher, 10 ºC higher at poles • Sea level 5 to 40 metres higher • This time it will be worse • 1000 years to increase 10 ppm • And stopped about 415 ppm

16. Impacts for food and farming? • Longer growing seasons • But less predictable • Increased droughts and floods • Erosion • Pests Photo credit: Shutterstock

17. Forests • Warmer, drier conditions plus pests/ diseases = higher risk • e.g., BC, California, Chile, Sweden, Portugal…. • Loss of winter cover • Soot/ black carbon • Who breathes the smoke? • MNRF: 1,325 forest fires in 2018 Photo credit: MNRF Photo credit: US NOAA

18. Plants, animals, fish Photo credit: Heidi Riedner/Georgina Advocate. Used with permission. Photo credit: bcameron54, (CC BY-SA 3.0)

19. And what else? “Large-scale uneven impacts of climate change may destabilize existing institutional arrangements, increase incentives to violently redistribute wealth, or generate other forms of social conflict.” Hsiang, Oliva, Walker 2017

20. We need to get ready for what’s coming Mitigation Adaptation • reduce emissions of pollutants (GHGs) that cause climate change • cope with the impacts that have already occurred and will occur as a result of climate change

21. 2. Ontario was doing so much right

22. Ontario 2003 - 2018

23. Money, climate, wellbeing:Majorco-benefitsof reducingreliance onfossil fuels Source: ECO

24. Cap and Trade was starting to work • Carbon Pricing • Revenues 2 1 • Cap & Trade • Energy Efficiency • Improvements 3 CAP • High-Carbon Ontario 4 • Low-Carbon Ontario

25. Raised billions for low-carbon initiatives • Cap and Trade raised $2.9B since January 2017 • $1.9B was spent on programs to reduce GHG emissions • 74%  public services (hospitals, schools, social housing and municipalities)

26. Now: A wrenching halt Where are we now? • All serious provincial programs cancelled, including cap and trade and renewable energy contracts • Conservation slashed • No meaningful replacements • Weak targets, little action • Little money for solutions • Instead, shoot the watchdog Ontario is sitting on its hands, or worse.

27. Gone, going or in danger • Climate Change Mitigation and Low-carbon Economy Act • (only 1% support to repeal) • Green Energy • Endangered Species • Conservation Authorities • Health Units • Environmental Assessment • Growth Plan • Greenbelt? • Funding for environmental/energy/climate people and programs

28. Tearing up contracts “The sanctity of contracts is fundamental. The government unilaterally cancelling contracts is harmful to business investment in Ontario.” Ashley Challinor – Director of Policy, Ontario Chamber of Commerce • Adverse effects on investors, public sector, First Nations, Long-Term Energy Plan 752 cancelled renewable energy projects Source: University of Guelph

29. Big setback to Indigenous people Source: University of Guelph

30. Cuts to Conservation Ontario needs much more conservation if we are to meet climate targets.

31. Fossil fuel subsidies • Existing fossil fuel tax breaks, plus • Subsidizing natural gas pipeline expansion • And natural gas trucks • Cutting gas tax Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, Union Gas, Ontario Solar Installers

32. Is it too late? • We are in for big changes • There is still a little time to have an impact on what’s coming • Our choices, right now, matter • Canadian actions really matter

33. 3. What about waste?

34. When the province won’t lead, who can? • Federal action – Pan Canadian Framework • Municipalities • Business • Investors/pension funds • Universities • Media • Everyone The federal backstop is a good start.

35. What can we do? • Climate cannot be left entirely up to government

36. 1. Reduce pollution • Yours and everyone else’s • Unlimited challenge to innovation, creativity

37. Who are the biggest polluters? Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada

38. Personal footprint?

39. Report: Beyond the Blue Box • Environmental consequences of waste • Short history of recycling in Ontario • Problems with the old law (WDA) • The new Waste-Free Ontario framework • What will it change? • ECO recommendations for next steps • Ontario’s transition to a circular economy • Final recommendations

40. Historical Focus on Recycling

41. Recommendations: Organic Waste Adopt some form of disposal ban on food waste Make the process for approving anaerobic digestion and composting facilities fast and predictable, while still protectingpublic health and environmental interests

42. Why is this Important? • 28% of waste is organic material • 40% diversion rate

43. Why is this Important? • Almost all GHGs from waste are from organics in landfills • Waste contributed 5.2% (8.6 Mt) of Ontario’s total GHGs in 2015 • 7.7 Mt directly fromlandfills • Mostly methane

44. Why is this Important? Source: Figure created by the ECO using information from Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Inventory Report 1990-2014: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, Part 3, 2016; and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing (contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2013. Reported numbers understate the actual amount and impact of GHG emissions from waste

45. Why is this Important? • In addition to climate impact, methane is a: • health hazard at high concentrations • contributor to ground level ozone • Wasted fuel source • Waste nutrients

46. What are the Challenges? • Can’t ban organics until you have somewhere to send them • To increase capacity, need an efficient, reliable approvals process • Siting concerns (esp. odour) • Who will bear the expense?

47. Also: Transportation is #1 Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada

50. Collective action: What works? Making polluters pay Regulating polluters Investing in solutions