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African Economic Outlook 2004/2005

African Economic Outlook 2004/2005. African Development Bank / OECD Development Centre. Outline of Presentation. The African Economic Outlook (AEO) Project Highlights of the 2004/2005 Report Major Development Challenges facing African Countries. The AEO Project.

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African Economic Outlook 2004/2005

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  1. African Economic Outlook 2004/2005 African Development Bank / OECD Development Centre

  2. Outline of Presentation • The African Economic Outlook (AEO) Project • Highlights of the 2004/2005 Report • Major Development Challenges facing African Countries

  3. The AEO Project... • Joint Publication of the ADB and the OECD Development Centre • Objective: Independent analysis of African countries using a common methodology and targeted at a broad audience … • Core work – Analysis of individual countries, overall review of African economy, and focus on a major theme each year – SMEs in 2004/05 • Improvements in successive editions: • More intensive peer-review process • Improved modelling and data harmonisation • Broader Coverage …

  4. Coverage 2004/2005: 29 African countries Tunisia Morocco Algeria Other AEO 04/05 Libya Egypt Mauritania Niger Mali Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea Gambia Guinea-Bissau Burkina Faso Djibouti Guinea Togo Nigeria Ethiopia Côte d'Ivoire SierraLeone Central African Republic Liberia Cameroon Ghana Somalia Equatorial Guinea Uganda Congo Gabon Kenya Rwanda Burundi Dem.Rep. Congo Tanzania Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique Zimbabwe Mauritius Madagascar Namibia Botswana Swaziland Lesotho South Africa 89% of GDP, 86% of population

  5. Highlights of 2004/2005 AEO

  6. Africa had the best GDP growth rate in eight years ...

  7. Excluding N. Africa and S. Africa, GDP Growth Rate was even better ...

  8. Considerable regional variations were observed …

  9. Newer oil producers are growing most rapidly Real GDP growth rates, expected (e) and forecast (p). (Source: AEO).

  10. But reforming oil-importers are also doing quite well

  11. Factors Behind Improved Growth Performance External Factors Internal Factors

  12. OECD recovery has spurred African economies Rates of real GDP growth (Sources: AEO, IMF, OECD).

  13. Rising oil and metals prices

  14. Africa is also benefiting from increased aid flows... DAC Members’ ODA: 1990-2003 and simulations to 2006 and 2010, based on Monterrey and subsequentcommitments

  15. Decline in Debt / GDP ratio, although still high for poor countries

  16. Internally, political stability is improving …

  17. Macroeconomic management is improving: Inflation is largely under control ...

  18. Significant variations in regional inflation rates

  19. Fiscal discipline is also generally good and improving

  20. Regional variations in fiscal balance

  21. Despite recent improvements, major development challenges remain … • Meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) remains a major challenge for most African countries • African economies remain highly vulnerable to both external and domestic shocks

  22. Meeting the MDGs remains a challenge

  23. Further Reforms Required to Make Progress towards the MDGs • Maintain stable macroeconomic framework by building on recent gains – prudent use of windfall gains is essential • Push through structural reforms and improve the investment climate: • Privatization of SOEs • Governance reforms and institution building/strengthening • Financial sector reforms

  24. Greater effort at diversification has to be made: Export Diversification Index (inverse of sum of squared shares of each exported good; lower numbers = less diversified; Source AEO).

  25. Regional cooperation and integration efforts need to be strengthened • Take advantage of the NEPAD initiative • Streamline regional economic groupings • Greater focus on promoting investment in addition to trade • Greater effort to remove bureaucratic and other barriers that still hinder trade and investment

  26. More efficient use of resources for human capital development • Africa would also need to build its human capital to compete globally • More countries are increasing their investments in education and health • Improving service delivery is now a major challenge for most

  27. External Support will remain critical • ODA -- Commission for Africa recommendation of doubling ODA to Africa by 2010 -- $25 billion/year • Debt Relief – UK proposal -- 100 percent debt relief on debt owed to the IFIs • Trade – Doha Round: • Dismantling of remaining trade barriers; removal of agricultural subsidies • Developing Africa’s Capacity to trade

  28. Conclusion • Africa doing better – due to favorable external environment but, as importantly, due to internal factors • Prospects for sustained improvement are good • African countries would need to deepen their reforms and carry out remaining structural reforms; • Africa’s development partners should scale up their support in line with commitments

  29. Thank you!

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