1 / 16

EUCLEIA

EUCLEIA. European Climate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution Coordination P Stott MetO WP6 lead Robert Vautard IPSL/LSCE. Partnership. UEDIN. DMI. UOxf. KNMI. HZG. Reading Univ. MetO. UVSQ. CNRS. ETHZ. IC3. Why a service on extreme events.

marjorie-lazos
Download Presentation

EUCLEIA

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. EUCLEIA EuropeanClimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution Coordination P StottMetO WP6 lead Robert Vautard IPSL/LSCE

  2. Partnership UEDIN DMI UOxf KNMI HZG Reading Univ MetO UVSQ CNRS ETHZ IC3

  3. Why a service on extremeevents • Need of scientifically robust information about the extent to which recent extreme weather can be linked to climate change • Need to put witnessedextremeevents in a climate perspective for adaptation if changes in frequency / intensityexpected • Need to better understand physical mechanisms of extremes (also for geo-ingeneering?)

  4. The need to put witnessedextremeevents in a climate perspective Lossevaluated 45 billion US$ Peterson et al., 2012 BAMS SoCsupplement

  5. Change in odds for cold Winter 2010/2011 Christidis and Stott, 2012

  6. Otherexample: Winter 2010Cold extreme in warmingclimate Difference Reconstructed Observed • Cattiaux et al., 2010 : Analogsreconstructingtemperature: • Look for pastdayswithclosest circulation pattern. • Warm residual

  7. Project objectives • Demonstration: • Derive the requirements that targeted user groups (including regional stakeholders, re-insurance companies, general public/media) have from attribution products and demonstrate the value to these users of the attribution products developed under EUCLEIA • Demonstrate the utility of the attribution system on a set of test cases of European weather extremes • Development: Develop experimental designs and clear ways of framing attribution studies in such a way that attribution products provide a fair reflection of current evidence on attributable risk • Reliability: Develop the methodology for representing the level of confidence in attribution results so that attribution products can be trusted to inform decision making • Assessments: Produce traceable and consistent attribution assessments on European climate and weather extremes on a range of timescales; on a fast-track basis in the immediate aftermath of extreme events, on a seasonal basis to our stakeholder groups, and annually to the BAMS attribution supplement

  8. Project structure

  9. Products The main outcome of EUCLEIA will be the development and delivery of authoritative, reliable and regular assessments of the contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors to recent weather and climate events in Europe • Slow track(seasonal to annual) • Change of riskof extremeevents due to human influence • Attribution reliabilityassessments • Processes diagnostics, relevant observations • Fasttrack(1 week) • Change in riskfrom time seriesanalysis • Indices comparingeventswiththose of previousdecades • Indices of detection of unusualflows and weather • Yearly: BAMS SoCsupplement on attribution • End of Project: summary report including observations and modelingneeds

  10. Test cases • Heatwaves • Cold spells • Droughts • Floods • Storm surges

  11. Overview of ECVsused in EUCLEIAFrom WMO definition • Surface : temperature, precipitation, wind, surface radiation budget  ensembles of derived indices (drought, heat, cold) • Upper air: Temperature, wind  circulation description, model input • Terrestrial: SoilMoisture, FAPAR, LAI, land cover

  12. Observations used

  13. Users • Regional stakeholders (2 case studies for adaptation) • Baltic sea coast management • Health system in the greater Paris • Insurance and re-insurance (attribution: several ins, re-ins., brokers interested) • Health system (adaptation) • Legal sector : (Science  litigation) • General public, medias (information, diagnostics)

  14. Users and products/ECVs • Products on project web site • Information on guide for use, press releases • Registration needed • Training the service with a closed user group of scientists, stakeholdersbeforecanbe open to large public • Feedback: WP1 case studies, and fromusers group, on all products, on seasonal and annual time scales • Updates: Yearly

  15. Translation of ECVsintoclimate service indices (examples) • Change in risk indices • Wetaher/hydrological indices (drought PDSI, SPI, …, ) • Indices (statistical) of extremes (quantiles, return times), including spatial extent, duration • Magnitude easy to understand impact-oriented indices for heatwaves, drought, other (eglike for earthquakes)

  16. Future R&D needs • A wholetask on observation needs for attribution and diagnostics

More Related