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THE ENERGETICS OF MODERN CLIMATE CHANGES

THE ENERGETICS OF MODERN CLIMATE CHANGES. S.V.AVAKYAN 1,2 A.AYLWORD 3 1 All-Russian SCIENTIFIC CENTER S.I.VAVILOV STATE OPTICAL INSTITUTE, 2 CENTRAL (at Pulkovo) ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATORY RAS, 3 UNIVERSITY COLLEGE of LONDON. Working Group of ISSI, Swiss, January, 2015. ABSTRACT

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THE ENERGETICS OF MODERN CLIMATE CHANGES

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  1. THE ENERGETICSOF MODERN CLIMATE CHANGES S.V.AVAKYAN1,2 A.AYLWORD3 1 All-Russian SCIENTIFIC CENTER S.I.VAVILOV STATE OPTICAL INSTITUTE, 2 CENTRAL (at Pulkovo) ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATORY RAS, 3 UNIVERSITY COLLEGE of LONDON Working Group of ISSI, Swiss, January, 2015

  2. ABSTRACT We analyze the link between the cloudiness cover and the level of solar-geomagnetic activity including solar flares and principal magnetic storms. The existence of this link was confirmed for global distribution of different cloud levels for different time scales – from daily variations at high mountain station to long-term trends during the last decades. The results of the investigation have been used for analysis of energy of sun-weather-climate connections including changes in radiation balance and global air temperature during last decades. Some ways of taking into account the solar signal in mid- long term weather forecast are suggested.

  3. ABSTRACT The contribution of novel radiooptical trigger mechanism of solar-tropospheric correlation with used microwaves emission of highly excited Rydberg states from disturbance ionosphere.There the microwave radiation can interact with water cluster ions. Depending on circumstances and the size of clusters, this may either disrupt or build the clusters, thus possibly affecting cloud formation. Controlling the amount of cloud influences the surface temperature. We would like to spark a discussion of this mechanism to see if it can be established qualitatively how important this might be for climate control.

  4. “Energetics of the modern climate changes” 1). We consider the impact of microwave emissions of the ionosphere disturbed by solar flares and magnetic storms on the troposphere and suggest the radio-optical trigger mechanism of the solar influence on weather and climate of the Earth, which consists of the following three stages: - the ionosphere absorbs the ionizing solar radiation and corpuscles from the radiation belts and transforms them into microwaves through the excitation of Rydberg states; - the rates of formation and destruction of water cluster ions are regulated by the microwave radiation at the troposphere; - the clusters contribute to the formation of cloud, which affects the energy flux of the solar radiation at the troposphere and the flux of the ougoing heat from the underlying surface.

  5. Transmission of atmosphere.

  6. «RADIOOPTICAL THREE STAGE TRIGGER» IN SOLAR – WEATHER / CLIMATE LINKS Energy conversion in the ionosphere of the solar and geomagnetic activity to the MICROWAVE FLUX, which penetrates to the earth surface I stage The microwave radiation control of the RATES OF FORMATION AND DESTRUCTION of WATER VAPOUR CLUSTER IONS in lower atmosphere at altitude more then 2 km II stage The contribution of the water vapour clusters to the formation of cloudness and atmospheric aerosol layers which absorb and reflect the solar irradiance as well as thermal radiation coming out from the underlying surface III stage

  7. We consider the impact of microwave emissions of the ionosphere disturbed by solar flares and magnetic storms on the troposphere and suggest the solar influence on weather and climate of the Earth. The ionosphere absorbs the ionizing solar radiation and corpuscles from the radiation belts and transforms these into microwaves through the excitation of Rydberg states(inflated, blown up atoms and molecules) by impact of ionospheric photo-, Auger and secondary electrons).

  8. THE NUMBEROF DISTURBINGEVENTS PER YEAR FORBUSH DECREASE EVENTS: 1(at 10 - 20%), 2 – 4(at more than 3%, out of periods of geomagnetic storms and SCR). SOLAR PROTON EVENTS (SCR): 5 (at the energy more than 100 MeV) GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: 20 – 70 (for Kp more than 5). SOLAR FLARES: 50 (for class more than M5). S.E.C. User News, 2000

  9. THE ENERGETICS OF SPACE FACTORS The magnitudes of energyfluxes, coming to terrestrial atmosphere SUN Radiation belts during magnetic storms 1 Wm-2 Galactic cosmic rays 710-6Wm-2 Solar luminosity 1367 Wm-2 UV 0,1 Wm-2 Solar wind 310-4Wm-2 Solar cosmic rays 210-3Wm-2 Magnitude of energy flaxes, absorbed in the earth atmosphere FROM SUN FROM RADIATION BELTS DURING MAGNETIC STORMS IN LOW ATMOSPHERE 710-5Wgramm-1 IN IONOSPHERE10-3W gramm-1 IN IONOSPHERE 10-1W gramm-1 The IONOSPHERE IS FIRST CANDIDATE on the ROLEof AGENT of INFLUENCEin the PHYSICS of SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL LINKS

  10. CONTROL CONDENSATION MECHANISM DURING DISTURBANCES IN SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES. Sun's flare phenomena RADIO BURST EUV/X-ray FLARE MAGNETOSPHERE Principal magnetic STORM PRECIPITATION(e, p) from radiation belts ADDITIONAL IONIZATION of the upper atmosphere Photoelectrons, secondary electrons, Auger electrons Excitation of high excited (RYDBERG) states SPORADIC MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC EMISSIONS Control of condensation mechanism and change of atmospheric transparence by means of variation for ratio: VAPOURS OF H2O / CLUSTERS FROM THE WATER VAPOUR

  11. CONTROL BY MICROWAVE RADIATION of ion cluster chemistry in low atmosphere THE INCREASE OF MICROWAVE FLUX FROM SUN AND TERRESTRIAL IONOSPHERE AT THE DESTRUCTION OF CLUSTERS: Decrease of dissociative recombination rate for cluster from the water vapor after formation of the stable RYDBERG STATES (l>2) in the microwave field. Bates D.R., “Collisional dissociative recombination” of cluster ions,1981. AT THE FORMATION OF CLUSTERS: Increasing of association rate for polyatomic molecules with formation of the stable RYDBERG ORBITAL (l>2) in the microwave field. Gallas J.A.C.et al., 1985.

  12. CONTROL CONDENSATION-CLASTER MECHANISM DURING DISTURBANCES IN SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES. SPORADIC MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC EMISSIONS Increase of microwave fluxes from ionosphere Arising of condensational cluster haze in the troposphere Appearance of optically thin cloudiness Decreasing (at day, summer) / increasing (at night, winter) of the air temperature Decreasing ofthe atmospheric pressure Formation of total cloudiness

  13. Here, we have revealed the inconsistency of the following frequently occurred assertions: 1. The global warming is basically due to the greenhouse effect related to anthropogenic (carbon-containing) gases; 2. The increase in CO2 concentration is caused by industrial, energetical, and transport ejections;

  14. Here, we have revealed the inconsistency of the following frequently occurred assertions: 3. In spite of the fact that no pronounced “solar signal” is seen in climatic variations. 4. The climate is basically affected by variations in the solar constant-TSI and in cosmic rays,

  15. The results of our study indicate the reverse: 1. The basic factor of the impact of solar-geomagnetic activity on the climate and weather is the microwave radiation of the ionosphere, which affects cloudiness. 2.The basic factor of anthropogenic impact is deforestation (last 50 years quintative of the forest decrease in two times (UNEP)) and abiotization of the land; only for the latest 30 years, the outcome of carbon dioxide from the troposphere to photosynthesis has decreased by the factor of 1.5 (from 300 to 200 bln tons)

  16. The results of our study indicate the reverse: 3. The contribution of the “solar signal, or factors of increased solar-geomagnetic activity”, to the global warming in the late XX - early XXI centuries dominates, while the greenhouse effect related to anthropogenic gases is of the second order 4. At the current stage of secular solar cycle, the role of the “solar signal” decreases, while deforestation increases. 5. Permanently for air temperature growth there are the increasing of the contribution of urbanization, especially for the based (old) meteorological observatories and stations 6. But may be also the influence of the OCEAN DAMPING make the lag at the 15 – 18 years/Pokrovsky O.M., 2010/

  17. Our calculations Vertical profiles ofRydberg stateexcitation rates:1-quiet Sun; 2-solar flare X1 (a), (b), (c) total excitation for the oxygen and nitrogen molecules and oxygen atom, respectively, in transition (s = 1); (d) partial excitation of level ( = 0) of the nitrogen molecule. Avakyan, Voronin, Serova, 1997.

  18. The high function of excitation rates for Rydberg states for auroral zone (night aurora, IBC II): 1) the total excitation for nitrogen molecule, 2) the total excitation for oxygen molecule, 3-5) the partial excitation for atomic oxygen (3 - s = 0, 4 - l = 1, s = 0, 5 - l = 0, s = 0). Avakyan S.V., 25th General Assembly of URSI, 1996, France, JOT OSA, 2005 Our calculations

  19. ENERGETICS OF MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC GENERATION The ratio of the energies dissipated in the ionosphere when there is a solar flare and during a geomagnetic storm shows that the flux of microwave radiation can be factor of 10–100 greater in intensity in the period of a magnetic storm. In this case, the radiation in the centimeter and decimeter ranges can now exceed 10−11–10−12 W cm−2.On the other hand, a calculation of the excitation rates of the Rydberg states of the oxygen atom gave a value of about 109 particles cm−2 sec−1 in a column of the ionosphere during the period of a medium class-(X1) 2B solar flare. Then, for values of the quantum energy in the centimeter range of 2x10−23 (for Lambda=1 cm) – 2x10−24 J (for Lambda =10 cm) in this column in ten allowed transitions, we have a flux density of microwave radiation of 2x10−13–2x10−14 W/cm2. This flux density is the lower limit for transitions with delta n=1 (only for delta l=1), i.e., those of the type n', l'=n'−1→n'−1, l''=n'−2, where n'=11–20 for an oxygen atom.This value increases to 10−11–10−12 W / cm2 during a magnetic storm.

  20. THE COLLISIONS CAN BE NEGLECTED (IN ENERGY CALCULATIONS, WITHOUT THE ACCOUNT OF REDISTRIBUTION ON A SPECTRUM) rad.~ n4 10-9 s. l 2 - smallpredissociation, autoionization, collisional ionization, collisionaldissociation Avakyan, J. Opt. Techn., 2006.

  21. EXPERIMENTAL CONFIRMATIONS We should emphasise that all the stages of the proposed mechanism were confirmed experimentally: -The microwave radiation of the ionosphere intensifying during solar and magnetic storms was detected (V.S.Troitskii et al., 1973). -The control of humidity at heights exceeding 3 km by both the microwave radiation of the Sun and solar flares was recorded (Krauklis et al., 1990; Nikol’skii and Shul’ts, 1991). -The direct influence of solar and magnetic storms on the total cloudiness was clearly fixed (Dmitriev and Lomakina, 1977; Veretenenko and Pudovkin, 1996).

  22. The observation from Caucas Mounts (more than 2 km) show that OPTICAL TRANSPARENCY OF TROPOSPHERE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ABSORPTION BANDS FOR WATER VAPORS AND WATER CLUSTERS ( 320-330, 360, 380-390, 400 and 480 nm) HAVE THE CONTROL BY SOLAR FLARES and MICROWAVE BURSTS: association of clusters at the microwaves  2-3 cm and more12 cm;their dissociation at  3- 12 cm Kondrat’iev K., Nikol’skii G., Shults E.s, 1990, 1991, 1995.

  23. W, cm Deposited layer water 2100 m RB on frequencies from 2950 MHz to 15000 MHz RB Flares Local time The day time dependence of total contentof a water vapour at the altitude more than a level of 2,1 km for July 29, 1981. Wф - restored day time course W in background requirements. In the bottom part of figure ARE SHOWN DURATION AND POWER OF SOLAR FLARES (SF, IF) AND RADIOBURSTS (RВ). G.A. Nikol’skii, Shults E.O., 1991.

  24. W, cm Deposited layer water Local time The day time dependence of total content of a water vapour W on broadband filter actinometer at the altitude more than a level of 2,1 km. Observations 11.10.1981. ON AN ABSCISSA AXIS THE SOLAR FLARE ARE SHOWN. G.A. Nikol’skii, Shults E.O., 1991.

  25. Decreasing (on 5 %) of total content of water vapour at atmospheric columb (during solar flares19.05.2007 with beginning 13.02 UT). The joint Russian ( Pulkovo Astronomical Observat. of RAS) and (Astman Observatory) experiment in Germany, Lindenberg. /V.Galkin e.a., 2012/

  26. Discovery of sporadic radioemission for the terrestrial ionosphere during the solar flares and aurora ( = 3 cm - 50 cm)Forsyth P.A., Petrie W., Currie B.W.,On the origin of ten centimeter radiation from the polar aurora, Can. J. of Res., 28A, 3, 324, 1950.Troitskii V.S., Starodubtseva A.M., Bondar' L.N., et alSearch for sporadic radio emission from cosmic space at centimeter and decimeter wavelengths. Radiophysics., v. XVI, N 3, pp. 323-342, 1973.Musatenko S.I.,Radioemission of a circumterraneous space as result of influence of solar flares on magnetosphere and ionosphere of the Earth, Geomagnrtizm and aeronomy., v. 20, N 5, pp. 884-888, 1980.Klimenko V.V., UHF waves from polar ionosphere, Dissertation, Irkutsk, 129 p., 2002.

  27. Coincidence bursts in Pustin and Ussuriisk 22.09.1970 ,  = 50 cm. Solar chromospheric flare. Troitskii V.S., 1973. Pustin, Ural; Ussuriisk, Far East; RUSSIA Troitskii V.S., 1973

  28. M.G.Grach et al. Ann. Geoph,2002 The facility for pumping of ionosphere “Sura” Russia. Signal from an ionosphere on frequency~600 MHz ( = 50 cm) from heights ~190-270 km during and after a heating by powerful short radiowaves ~6 MHz.

  29. Authors (Grach et al.)interpretation of experimental data as Rydberg excitation by energetic ionospheric electrons THE CITATION (2002):  “A more credible mechanism of the emission generation conditioned by the electron acceleration is related to theEXCITATIONof the highRYDBERG STATESof theneutrals (atom O and molecule N2) by electron impact, andthe transition of electronsbetween high Rydberg levels.”  “A similar mechanism of UHF/VHF generation, namely theEXCITATIONof the highRYDBERG STATESof atmospheric gases by photoelectrons, is attracted by Avakyan et al. (1997) for an interpretation of sporadic UHF/VHF radio emission of the ionosphere.”

  30. The cloudiness every day after the X-ray solar flares (satellite regisration) /A. Dmitriev,, E Lomakina, 1977- in Russian/

  31. The cloudiness (balls) every day after the X-ray solar flares -satellite regisration /A. Dmitriev, 1987- in Russian/ 1 – FLARES>C5, 2 - FLARES > M1.5-2, 3 - FLARES > M2.5-4.5 "CП"-NORTH Hemisphere "ЮП” -SOUTHHemisphere "СА"–USA (CENTER and EAST)

  32. Variations of the cirrus cloudiness after coming of Solar cosmic rays (SCR) 0 – day of the SCR bigining, 1 – latitude 52,6 , 2 – latitude 46,4. Number of X-ray solar flaxes 0 – day of the SCR bigining, Minus 1 -2 days – days of the Solar Flares bigining S.V.Veretenenko, M.I.Pudovkin 1996

  33. Results of the influence of solar-geomagnetic events at a pressure P and temperature T at October, 2003 (H=2100m) Solar flare (type M4 ) resulted in a decrease in P (9 cases, or 82 %), though in two cases the pressure increased. Dramatic dips in P at the end of 28 and 29 October were apparently related to two powerful events of coming of solar cosmic rays, 28 at 12:20 UT and, 29 at 00:03 UT. Such events are increase cloudiness, which, as a rule,results in decline inP. Anomalously strong Forbus effect 29 October (14-16 UT) result increase P. Magnetic storms (Kpр5) acts in the troposphere in the same way as a flare (due to an increase in perturbation of the ionosphere under the influence of electrons precipitating from radiation belts). Respectively, increase in T in 16 out of 19 observed events (84 %). G. A. Nikol'sky et al., 2014

  34. In the paper (Bogdanov, M.B., A.N. Surkov, A.V. Fedorenko (2006), “Effect of cosmic rays on atmospheric pressure at high altitudes”. Geomagn. Aeron., 46 (2), 268-274.) on the Alps (in the altitude 3475 m, mount Jungfraujoch) also were the data about influence of solar flares on the decreasing of tropospheric pressure. .

  35. Designated:1 - period 1983 to 1985/7 years: the growth of clouds due to the increase in short-solar activity and an increase in the aa index of geomagnetic activity, as well as the world's number of magnetic storms, and 2 - the period c 1987 to 2000: the fall of EUV flux solar radiation [84] and the number of solar flares, 3 - from 2000 to 2003 : growth aa-index, continued until the end of 2003, 4 - from 2004: the overall decline of aa index of global magnetic storms and short electromagnetic activity of the Sun.

  36. Cloudiness, % Comparison between variations of the global total (TC) and upper (UC) cloudiness and of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Positive correlation is obtained for (UC - 93%) and for (TC - lower (81%).

  37. Solar x-rays flares>=M4 and Solar cosmic rays (>10 MeV) at the 1975-2003. /Belov et al., 2005 /

  38. Shown are variations in the current total energy flux of EUV solar photons (Lean, 2005).

  39. aa- INDEX HAS BEEN GOING UP TILL 2003 (+ 0.6 % / YEAR). AFTER NOV., 2003, GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ALSO as EUV STARTED DECREASING VERY FASTLY AND BEFORE THE LEVEL NEAR VALUES OF aa-INDEX FOR 1900 YEAR.

  40. Globally-averaged 5-yr mean low (blue) and mid+high (red) cloud amount 1985 / 2004. (P. Goode, E. Palle, JASTP, 2007)

  41. VARIOUS ROLE CLOUDINESS IN GLOBAL WARMING: “The net radiative properties of a cloud are mainly depend on its altitude and optical thickness. Optically-thin clouds at high and middle altitudes cause a net warming due to their relative transparency at short wavelengths but opacity in the IR region, whereas thick clouds produce a net cooling due to the dominance of the increased albedo of short-wave solar radiation”. (J. Kirkby, A. Laaksonen, 2000).

  42. THE MAIN AGENT OF GLOBAL WARMING - OPTICALLY THIN CLOUDINESS - This condensation-cluster haze - largely similar thin cirrus clouds (which are defined as "invisible", "transparent", "subvisual“). - All these definitions the authors attributed to the type of WARMING CLOUDS as with virtually passing shortwave (visible) solar radiation such clouds and condensation-cluster smoke (haze), have the ability to create a greenhouse effect, since about half of the delayed flow of heat radiation of the underlying ground.

  43. This means that negative trendshave come both FOR SOLAR and GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES after 1985/7 . We suppose that according to our mechanism the modern natural global climate changes will go down to lower levels. /Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A.2010. On the radiooptical and optical mechanisms of influence of cosmic factors on the global warming // J.Optical Technology-OSA, №2/ But may be the influence of the OCEAN DAMPING make the LAG at the 15 – 18 years /Pokrovsky O.M., 2010/

  44. Irradiance is the total solar energy flux received at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere (Frohlich, 2006, 2009).

  45. The results of measurements of water vapor in the column of the atmosphere at high altitude (average value) and our approximation detectable trend

  46. Total column atmospheric water vapor time variation in Texas (USA)

  47. Our results indicatethat the global cloudiness isbasically driven by the variations of the solar-geomagnetic activity, while TCAWV - second order factor in the formation of clouds, since the abundance of water vapor is, as a rule, sufficient for that. Temperature Anomalies, C Global ocean temperature anomalies, C (ISCCP). In [Pokrovskii, 2012],a striking inconsistencyis noted between the decrease in the global cloudiness with the simultaneous increase in the temperature of the ocean surface (apparently accompanied with the increase in vaporization from the surface of water) and the existing mechanisms of cloud formation.

  48. Changes of global outgoing radiation in the period 1984 – 2003: Increasing for thermal – on 15 W/m2 , decreasing for shortwave (visual) – on 10 %. /V.A. Golovko, SRC «Planeta», 2003/

  49. EVOLUTION OF THE EARTH TOTAL RADIATION BALANCE IN 1985 – 2003 (GOLOVKO, 2003): - growth of the value of outgoing long wave radiation amounts to approximately 15 W/m2 - the value of outgoing short wave radiation reduced by approximately 10 W/m2. These facts agree with our estimations of radiooptical mechanism effects. Indeed reduction of total cloudiness from Solar activity maximum in 1985/87 to 2000 amounts to 4 – 5 %. At mean cloudiness albedo equal to 0.5 – 0.8 and taking into account the Earth sphericity we have 342 W/m2x(0.04 - 0.05)x(0.5 – 0.8) = 6.8 – 13.7 W/m2. This is the evaluative value which corresponds to the decrease of the flow of outgoing short wave radiation. Its mean value is just 10 W/m2 which is in agreement with results of satellite data processing, made in (Golovko, 2003).

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